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Posted

I was wondering if that 84-point swing — from a 16% chance of winning to 100% — was the biggest in Mets history. I naturally jumped right to The Steve Henderson Game, and Steve is indeed king, with a whopping 92-point swing (from 8% to 100%) coming out of his bat.


Even though Harkness got the grand slam, he was up with the tying run on second, and the winning one on first, while Henderson arrived with the tying run on first, and the winning one being himself.


It likely doesn't change the percentages one iota, but Steve had also hit no homers to that date (June 14) all season long.


If anybody can find a bigger swing in terms of win likelihood, performed by a Met, I will happily reward them by buying them a knockoff Dr. Pepper of their choosing.


Harkness still gets extra credit (in my head) because he went to deep right center. Also, Henderson was playing for a team scratching at respectability with a 27–28 record. Sure, they would soon nosedive to a 67-95 performance typical of the Torre years, the Harkness game featured a team playing pretty terribly to date (29–45) heading for a disastrous finish (53-109-1).

Posted

When the Mets got him he was supposed to be an excellent fielder. Then when he came here we found out that LA had put him into games in the ninth inning for “ defensive purposes” to make him more trade-able and the Mets took the bait.

I remember that homer and the fact that he hit it off a lefty and he hadn’t seen many because he was platooned.

RIP , Tim.

Later

Posted

The biggest difference in the Win Pct jump in the Harkness game is that the bases were loaded and only down two runs. So the fact that a single there likely ties the game and a double potentially wins it made the NYM win odds already up to a non-miracle-like one-in-six (16%) shot before Timmy-boy ever gets to the plate.

The Mets needed all three runs that Kirk Nieuwenhuis provided in his bolt out of the blue 3R game-winner vs CHC, but there the tying runners were on 2nd & 3rd AND there was just one out when he connected which keeps his win pct jump tamped down to a mere 74%


The biggest guy Harkness bails out in his game was Jim Hickman. What is he doing getting thrown out at 3rd on a single for the 1st out in an inning down by two?!?

Posted

The fact that he had already been 3-for-6 meant that he added over 100% to the team's likelihood of winning over the course of the game, finishing the tilt with a 1.107 win probability added.


He bailed out Hickman and then some on the day.

Posted

The Asdrubal Cabrera game from September 2016 was my immediate best guess for a contender of highest WPA swing -- 3 run homer to win in the bottom of the 11th, Mets were down 2 runs at the time -- but that was only an 81% swing (although in a substantially more important game vis a vis playoff chances).

 

If anybody can find a bigger swing in terms of win likelihood, performed by a Met, I will happily reward them by buying them a knockoff Dr. Pepper of their choosing.

 

I did some poking around the UMDB and Baseball Reference and I believe a 92% wWPA is the record for a single Mets play. It is held by Henderson, tied with two others.

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