Magic Numbers (split from 9/9 IGT)

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets are once again sitting in a playoff spot, so let's take a fresh look at the numbers.

The Mets no longer have to worry about the Giants. At best, they can finish in a tie with the Mets and the Mets have the tiebreaker. However, the Giants aren't necessarily eliminated. If there's a three-way or four-way tie at 81-81 that includes the Mets and Giants, along with the Reds and/or Diamondbacks, the Giants may be able to emerge from that mess. Who knows?

The Mets are one game ahead of both Cincinnati and Arizona, both of whom own the tiebreaker advantage over the Mets. The Mets have to avoid losing more games than either team over the last five games. I'm not optimistic, but I'm hopeful. Let's see what happens! We really have no other alternatives.

Mets Magic Number by team:

Arizona Diamondbacks 5

Cincinnati Reds 5

St. Louis Cardinals 1

San Francisco Giants 0

The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds and Diamondbacks have the advantage over the Mets.

Meanwhile, it's the third wild-card spot or nothing, as the Padres have clinched a better record than the Mets.

Current Playoff Odds:

[table][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][tr][/tr][/table]

[th][/th]	[th]FanGraphs[/th]	[th]Baseball Reference[/th]
[th]Mets[/th]	[td]67.4[/td]	[td]50.7[/td]
[th]Arizona[/th]	[td]10.9[/td]	[td]24.9[/td]
[th]San Francisco[/th]	[td]0.0[/td]	[td]<0.1[/td]
[th]Cincinnati[/th]	[td]21.4[/td]	[td]24.9[/td]
[th]St. Louis[/th]	[td]0.1[/td]	[td]< 0.1[/td]

[Edgy MD]

A good day to eliminate the Cards.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Mets, Reds, and Diamondbacks all lost yesterday. Our two rivals both lost extra-inning games at home, so that's kinda nice.

There's still a possibility of a five-way tie for that third wild card spot, where the Mets, Arizona, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and San Francisco all end up 81-81. If that happens, the Mets win! They're 14-11 against the other four teams, which is the best record. Arizona is 15-16, Cincinnati is 17-17, San Francisco is 13-18, and St. Louis is 16-16.

In the more likely event of a three-way tie between the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Reds, it's the Reds who would win out. They're 8-4 against the Mets and Diamondbacks, compared to the 5-7 record that the other two teams would bring to the tiebreaker.

Mets Magic Number by team:

Arizona Diamondbacks 4

Cincinnati Reds 4

St. Louis Cardinals 0

San Francisco Giants 0

The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds and Diamondbacks have the advantage over the Mets.

[Gwreck]

There's still a possibility of a five-way tie for that third wild card spot, where the Mets, Arizona, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and San Francisco all end up 81-81. If that happens, the Mets win! They're 14-11 against the other four teams, which is the best record. Arizona is 15-16, Cincinnati is 17-17, San Francisco is 13-18, and St. Louis is 16-16.

 

I believe a 6-way tiebreak at 81-81 is also possible if Miami wins tonight.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yes, I had missed that. But it's moot now. The Mets, with their 82nd win, have eliminated the Cardinals, Giants, and Marlins.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday the Mets and Reds won, and the Diamondbacks lost.

As we well know by now, both Arizona and Cincinnati have the tie-breaker advantage over the Mets, so the Mets have to finish with more wins than both teams in order to advance to the postseason.

Mets Magic Number by team:

Cincinnati Reds 3

Arizona Diamondbacks 2

If all goes well, or really, if enough goes well, the Mets could eliminate the Diamondbacks tonight and the Reds tomorrow. If that happens, they can get some Joey Lucchesi wannabe to start Sunday's game.

 

[table][tr][/tr]
[tr][/tr]
[tr][/tr]
[tr][/tr][/table]

[th][/th]	[th]FanGraphs[/th]	[th]Baseball Reference[/th]
[th]Mets[/th]	[td]77.7[/td]	[td]68.3[/td]
[th]Arizona[/th]	[td]4.5[/td]	[td]2.1[/td]
[th]Cincinnati[/th]	[td]7.5[/td]	[td]20.2[/td]

 

With nine games remaining, there are 2^9 possible combinations of outcomes. That's 512. (Down significantly from the 32,768 from a few days ago!)

Google Copilot tells me that the Mets end up with a playoff berth in 312 of those outcomes, a 60.9 percent chance if that's accurate.

[Gwreck]

Yes, I had missed that. But it's moot now. The Mets, with their 82nd win, have eliminated the Cardinals, Giants, and Marlins.

 

Convenient, as I did not want to do the work to calculate that tiebreak!

[Chad ochoseis]

Whoa.

Since the order of victories doesn't matter, there are effectively 64 possible outcomes. Each of the three teams has four possible outcomes - they win 0, 1, 2, or 3 games. 4³= 64.

Of those,

There are 16 combinations where the Mets win 3, and the Mets clinch in all

There are 16 combinations where the Mets win 2. The only scenarios where the Mets don't clinch are the four where the Reds win 3 (and the DBacks win 0, 1, 2, or 3). That leaves 12 where the Mets clinch.

16 combinations where the Mets win 1. Of those, the Mets clinch where the Reds win 1 or 0 and the DBacks win 0, 1, or 2. That's 6 combinations.

Where the Mets win 0, they only win the WC if the Reds also win 0 and the DBacks win 0 or 1. That's 2 combinations.

So, out of 64, 16+12+6+2 = 36 where the Mets win the WC. So, if we assume 50-50 for each win, that's a 56.25% probability.

If we assume that each team has a slightly higher probability of winning because they'll be more willing to use rather than rest better players, or simply that in the Mets' case, they're playing a weaker team, that favors the status quo and increases the probability that the Mets win the WC. Not showing work on that, but picture the extreme cases where the win probabilities were 0 or 100%. Those would guarantee the status quo.