We're just unlucky

[roger_that]

Sorry--if you think the Mets suck, are mismanaged, are chokers, bite the dongs of lower-order mammalian types, etc, you're mistaken. They're just suffering from a slight case of bad luck.

Objectively, they're two games under their Pythagorean projection, meaning if their runs scored/surrendered ratio were perfect (which is just luck), they'd have won 78 games instead of the 76 they've won. No biggie, but we'd probably be feeling a little better today if just two of their worst bad losses had been turned into wins.

It's just run distribution. Subjectively, they've been hot as hell offensively, scoring many, many runs in several games, runs that scored after the game had gotten out of control, pile-on runs that pleased you but also made you think "OK, enough already. I got to get to bed."

But if we'd gotten a few of those particular runs yesterday or the day before, we'd have 78 wins right now, and we'd be feeling pretty good about their chances. A few more 4-3 wins, and a few fewer 19-4 wins, which is just luck, and we'd be in good shape.

No telling when their luck will turn or even if it will this season, and if you want to vent, feel free. It don't cost nothing to express yourself, but if you're complaining about the team, you might want to consider that winning teams are good teams but they're also lucky teams. The Mets are down on their luck.

[stevejrogers]

Luck, is the residue of design

-Frank Cashen

[whippoorwill]

Wise words, Frank

[kcmets]

Luck, is the residue of design

-Frank Cashen

 

Stevie, Stevie... that's Branch Rickey. I think the quote is

'grand design' but we'll let you look it lol...

[stevejrogers]

Luck, is the residue of design

-Frank Cashen

 

Stevie, Stevie... that's Branch Rickey. I think the quote is

'grand design' but we'll let you look it lol...

 

🤦🏻‍♂️😑 Two old baseball geniuses who liked to wear bow ties…

[whippoorwill]

Wise words, Mr. Rickey

[Frayed Knot]

What you're basically saying is that the Mets have won a bunch of blowouts which they have going 27-17 in games with a margin of five runs or more runs for the season. More specifically they were absurdly lopsided in August winning nine* of those 27 blowouts between Aug 2nd and Sept 2nd (including eight in the 19 day span from Aug 14 - Sep 2) while being on the short side of only three** such games. It's how they wound up leading the NL in both HRs and scoring in the month of August but went 11-17. That's the kind of thing that tends to fluff up your RS/RA ratio without contributing to many extra wins.

The other thing, which we've discussed here elsewhere, was their lack of 'clutch' hitting early in the season. At one point they were 5th or 6th in OPS (in MLB, not just NL) but right around mediocre in runs scored despite OPS being the stat that most correlates to runs scored. A little more even distribution in the timing of their hits back in April/May might have led to significantly more runs scored and an even bigger lead back when the pitching was so good.

That said, as Bill Parcells was known to say, 'You are what your record says you are". iow, We can 'Yeah but' ourselves silly, but it ain't gonna change anything.

* Wins of 6, 8, 7, 5, 7, 10, 6, 10, 7 runs

** Losses of 8, 5, and 6 runs

[roger_that]

'You are what your record says you are". iow, We can 'Yeah but' ourselves silly, but it ain't gonna change anything.

 

 

Sometimes a runner-up is there because they deserve to be, sometimes they're just unlucky, and other times they're lucky to be where they are. The Mets this year are an unlucky club. I've seen all three kinds.

[Frayed Knot]

Tonight they were unlucky that Alvarez swung at three pitches outside of the left-handed batter's box.

[roger_that]

Luck or Suck? You Make The Call.