Quiz: Impactful Mets Homers

[Gwreck]

Leadoff homers (and there have been a few in Mets playoff history) are worth 10% WPA — either hit T1 or B1 of a scoreless game — so they fall on neither list.  

Yes to Jay Payton.  Only 2% WPA for that homer, but that’s #10; still many less impactful on the list. 

[ashie62]

Yes to Jay Payton. It provided a ya gotta Believe moment

I was at the Pratt Ventura and Agbayani games with my brother

[Edgy MD]

A few minutes before that Jay Payton homer came a Mike Piazza homer.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Maybe Gary Carter's second home run in 1986 WS Game Three (or Four?) at Fenway?

[Gwreck]

Highest-Leverage

1. Lenny Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off, 73% WPA

2. Pete Alonso, 2024 NLWCS Game 3, T9/3-run homer while down 2 runs, 64% WPA

3. Edgardo Alfonzo, 1999 NLDS Game 1, T9/Grand Slam in tied game.  45% WPA

4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off, 42% WPA 

4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off, 42% WPA

6. Francisco Lindor, 2024 NLDS Game 4, B6, grand slam while down 1-0, 35% WPA

7.

8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6, 31% WPA

9.

10.

Just missed the top 10: Al Weis (1969 WS Gm 5), Ray Knight (1986 WS Gm 7)

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Lowest Leverage

10. Jay Payton, 2000 WS Game 2, T9. Moved the game from 6-2 to 6-5, but happened with 2 outs in the 9th.  Only 2% WPA.

9.

8.

7. Mike Piazza, 2000 WS Game 2, T9.  Moved game from 6-0 to 6-2.  1% WPA.

6.

5. Gary Carter, 1986 WS Game 4, T8.  Added a run to make it 6-0.  1% WPA.

4.

3.

2.

1.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't remember the circumstances of David Wright's World Series homer in 2015, but I remember thinking, oh, that's nice that he got to hit a home run in the World Series, not "WOW! That was an important home run!" So I'll guess that one as a low WPA home run.

[Gwreck]

Wright’s is pretty high up.  Was in the first inning, but moved the game from 1-0 Royals to 2-1 Mets.  18% WPA.

[Edgy MD]

The last game of the Cubs series in 2015, with the Mets running away, Daniel Murphy hit a homer late in the game just because he couldn't stop.  I can't imagine that was a high value homer, though.

[Gwreck]

Exactly.  Second least-impactful of all-time, went from 6-1 to 8-1 in the 8th.

 

Highest-Leverage

1. Lenny Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off, 73% WPA

2. Pete Alonso, 2024 NLWCS Game 3, T9/3-run homer while down 2 runs, 64% WPA

3. Edgardo Alfonzo, 1999 NLDS Game 1, T9/Grand Slam in tied game.  45% WPA

4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off, 42% WPA 

4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off, 42% WPA

6. Francisco Lindor, 2024 NLDS Game 4, B6, grand slam while down 1-0, 35% WPA

7.

8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6, 31% WPA

9.

10.

Just missed the top 10: Al Weis (1969 WS Gm 5), Ray Knight (1986 WS Gm 7)

—-

Lowest Leverage

10. Jay Payton, 2000 WS Game 2, T9. Moved the game from 6-2 to 6-5, but happened with 2 outs in the 9th.  Only 2% WPA.

9.

8.

7. Mike Piazza, 2000 WS Game 2, T9.  Moved game from 6-0 to 6-2.  1% WPA.

6.

5. Gary Carter, 1986 WS Game 4, T8.  Added a run to make it 6-0.  1% WPA.

4.

3.

2. Daniel Murphy, 2015 NLCS Game 4, T8.  Added 2 runs to make it 8–1.  1% WPA.

1.

[Gwreck]

Remaining answers in bold

 

Highest-Leverage

1. Lenny Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off, 73% WPA

2. Pete Alonso, 2024 NLWCS Game 3, T9/3-run homer while down 2 runs, 64% WPA

3. Edgardo Alfonzo, 1999 NLDS Game 1, T9/Grand Slam in tied game.  45% WPA

4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off, 42% WPA 

4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off, 42% WPA

6t.  Francisco Lindor, 2024 NLDS Game 4, B6, grand slam while down 1-0, 35% WPA

6t. Mark Vientos, 2024 NLDS Game 2, T9.  With one out, a 2-run homer to tie the game.  35% WPA.

8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6, 31% WPA

9. Wayne Garrett, 1969 NLCS Game 3.  2-run homer in the bottom of the 5th.  Mets went from down 4-3 to up 5-4.  29% WPA.  Nolan Ryan (leadoff single, during his 7 (!) innings of relief that game) scored ahead of Garrett.

10. Carlos Beltran, 2006 NLCS Game 1.  2-run homer in the bottom of the 6th of a scoreless game.  28% WPA.  Would be the only runs scored that game.

Just missed the top 10: Al Weis (1969 WS Gm 5), Ray Knight (1986 WS Gm 7)

—-

Lowest Leverage

10. Jay Payton, 2000 WS Game 2, T9. Moved the game from 6-2 to 6-5, but happened with 2 outs in the 9th.  Only 2% WPA.

9. Todd Zeile, 2000 NLCS Game 1, T9. Solo homer to take away the save situation, moved game from 3-0 to 4-0.  2% WPA

8. Ken Boswell, 1969 NLCS Game 2, T4.  2-run homer to go from 6-0 to 8-0.   2% WPA.  

7. Mike Piazza, 2000 WS Game 2, T9.  Moved game from 6-0 to 6-2.  1% WPA.

6. Ed Kranepool, 1969 World Series Game 3, B8.  Tack-on solo homer to go from 4-0 to 5-0.  1% WPA.

5. Gary Carter, 1986 WS Game 4, T8.  Added a run to make it 6-0.  1% WPA.

4. Carlos Beltran, 2006 NLCS Game 4, T7.  Tack-on solo homer to go from 5-0 to 6-0.  1% WPA.  

3. Jay Payton, 2000 NLCS Game 1, T9.  Two batters after Zeile's homer at #9, a 2-run homer to move it from 4-0 to 6-0.

2. Daniel Murphy, 2015 NLCS Game 4, T8.  Added 2 runs to make it 8–1.  1% WPA.

1. Eduardo Escobar, 2022 NLWCS Game 1, B5.  Solo homer when the Mets were down 7-0 in a miserable game.  Sorry Eduardo, someone's got to be last on the list.  1% WPA.

[Edgy MD]

Eduardo the Icebreaker!

Good kwiz, Kwizmaster!