Know a Phil, Learn a Skill

[Edgy MD]

The Mets head to Philadelphia this weekend to take on the division rival Phillies.  It is the first 2026 matchup between the two teams, which seems crazy at first, but when you think of how important it is to make or break your season with key matchups against the Mariners and Angels, it all makes sense.

The Phillies started off bad.  Like, Mets bad.  It was like in 2022, when they started off 22-29 under Joe Girardi, before Rob Thomson rode in on the white stallion to save the day, taking them in at 65-46 the rest of the way, leading all the way to the National League Pennant.

That's hero stuff, but that was 2022.  And this year the team started 9-19 under Thomson, and when he looked around for his horse, it was Don Mattingly riding it, and under Mattingly, the team has been 31-15.

I guess Philly knows how to time their managerial changes.

The Phils have been fortunate in their health situation.  Their main injury so far is to Adolis Garcia, and Garcia is having a terrible (like, worst in the league) season, so thanks for nothing, injury gods.  Also riding the IL train are relievers Brad Keller and Kyle Bakhus — useful guys, but if you don't know how to win without them, you probably need to find a different game.

So, you might need to be reminded about these guys, but you'll remember them soon enough.

Kyle Schwarber — big, brawny DH.  Strikes out a ton (a league-leading 110 so far), bashes a bunch of homers (a league-leading 25 so far), but times being what they are, he does it from the leadoff spot.

Bryce Harper — dynamic and provocative.  Now playing first, a career of bumps and bruises have put a dent into his productivity, but he can still take over a game.

Germans — always Teutonic names when you play this team.   There's Schwarber and Stott.  There's Bohm and Kerkiering and Keller.  There's Chase Shugart and Otto Kemp.

Otto!  I can't explain it.

Friday — There is no game Friday night in late June with kids just out of school.  You can talk about your Copa Mundial, but that is just CRAZY.

Declines — like David Justice in Moneyball, a lot of these guys were big names five or ten years ago, but are now in the back end of their careers, still making bank without necessarily the All-Star status to justify it.  The still-dangerous Harper has been noted, but there is also Aaron Nola (5.86 ERA), J.T. Realmuto (.608 OPS), Trea Turner (.608 as well, but has stolen 15 of 17 bags).  The contracts that made this team dangerous several years ago are now anchors, but ... a lot of younger guys are picking up the slack.  Zack Wheeler is still awesome, but the Phils now control his usage very carefully. 

Christopher Sanchez — Jacob Misiorowski has been great, but Sanchez has pitched 17 more innings, and is second in pitcher bWAR to Shohei Ohtani with 5.1.  Ohtani has 5.3, and having over 5 on June 18 is Dwight Gooden 1985 territory.

Matchups —

• The Mets face Nola to open the series, and he's been consistent if not good, usually giving the team five or six innings.  Chasing the Game One starter early can be a key to a series, so the Mets have an opportunity there, as do the Phils with Sean Manaea.
• Friday, as noted, no one pitches, and the world will be sadder for it.
• Saturday is a matchup of aces, though our ace (Freddy Peralta) is just a guy at the top of our rotation, and theirs (Sanchez) is a guy at the top of the world.  For such a stud, Sanchez is not a velocity guy, with a fastball of 93-to-95.  It's changeup/sinker/slider with him.  Look for righties like Vientos and Wagman to crack the lineup, but whatever advantage Vientos gets is prone to be offset by Sanchez' ability to turn guys over and get double plays out of slow righties like Mark.  Sanchez has pitched 7, 7, 7, and 8 innings over his last four starts, so maybe we can hope he'll tire, but he only went over 100 pitches once in that quartet.
• Sunday, we get Wheeler, and the Mets don't have a pitcher announced for then.  Maybe an opener plus Senga.  Maybe something else.  Maybe Peterson and a friend.  Maybe something else.

Promotions —

• Thursday is Pride Night.  Look for uneasy expressions of solidarity with the LGBTQ community.  "The first 3,000 fans to purchase tickets through this event will receive a voucher for an exclusive visor."  A giveaway of but 3,000 items seems awfully over-exclusive, but I can see an ugly event backlash if the Phils flood the gate with a pride giveaway item only to see the stuff trampled and disposed of by phans uneasy with the expression.
• Friday is Everybody-Stay-Home-or-Go-to-the-Soccer-Game Night.
• Saturday is Phans Feeding Families Night and Food Drive, so bring your non-perishable food to the gate.  As a thank you, those who donate will be given a voucher for a special ticket discount to a future Phillies game.  Everybody WINS!  Unless you hate the Phillies!
• Sunday is Chevrolet Father's Appreciation Day.  The first 18,000 fans through the gate will receive a specially designed father, courtesy of Chevrolet. 

The Mets sit seven games behind the Phils (currently in the second Wild Card spot) in the standings. More immediately, they sit 2 1/2 games behind the Reds, and they won't be relevant until they catch Cincy. The Phils have really impressive pitching and we are facing their two best, but they also have several holes in their lineup (Turner, Justin Crawford, and hopefully whoever replaces Garcia), and a couple of mostly soft spots (Stott and Realmuto). Brandon Marsh is still wet and annoying, the field is still small and square, the team still fields mostly well, and baseball is still glorious.

[seawolf17]

Excellent KTE. This weekend, we will answer the age-old question, "Can the Mets somehow manage to lose four times in three games?"

[Frayed Knot]

The Phils are just barely above us in scoring runs: PHI = 4.11 RS/G for 22nd place; NYM = 4.05 in 25th. They're even a tick lower in OBA and several lower in BA. Their OPS is higher (though only marginally) because they slug better but, once their home field is factored in, their OPS+ is a shade lower [86 vs 88] iow, neither team is hitting worth a damn this year.

The part that surprises me is that their runs allowed average is Higher than the Mets [PHI = 4.35 RA/G vs NYM = 4.28] all of which leads to the Phils being six games over .500 with a negative 18 run differential while the Mets are eight games under with  -17.  So near identical RS/RA numbers [Mets = 300/317 vs PHI = 304/322] but a full seven game gap in the standings. The Phils are a ridiculous 15-6 in one-run games (Mets 7-12).

Trea Turner's off year  -- from a 121 OPS+ in '25 to just 65 this year -- is the real surprise to me although he is kind of sneaky-old (33 next week). Stott and Bohm are going through less dramatic drops this year but drops they are while Realmuto, at 34 and with all those games/innings under his belt and in his legs, is a more predictable candidate for an offensive plunge as compared to the 28 & 29 y/o infielders. Really only Brandon 'Swamp Thing' Marsh is having a good season, the best one of his career in fact and he's actually out-OPS'ing Harper by a hair.

[Edgy MD]

The second-place Phils are winners of five of their last 10, still improbably sitting at 11 games over .500 with a run differential of -10.

Yesterday's news has reliever Brad Keller diagnosed with a torn UCL, which will unsurprisingly cause him to miss the rest of the year.  It was the first of a two-year contract with Keller.  He has spent most of his career with the Royals, and 2025 with the Cubs, but since he had a German surname, the pull of gravity between him and the Phils was strong.

Lefty reliever Tanner Banks hit the injured list recently as well, but he was pitching pretty poorly, and the assignment allowed them to bring back Chase Shugart, about whose surname I will say nothing, as to continue on in this manner would be frankly distasteful.

In the only game on the schedule, Aaron Nola goes tonight against the Scottish Christian, tomorrow they amazingly get their second Friday off in a few weeks, Saturday locks up veteran lefties Sean Manea and Jesus Luzardo, and Sunday gives us the thrill of Nolan McLean against Alan "Don't Call Me Charles" Rangel, still looking for his first MLB win.

[MFS62]

I fear realmuto will perk up when he sees a Mets uniform on the opposing pitcher. 
later