IGT 08/26 - PHI at NYM - You Know the Time, You Know the Channel and...

[Benjamin Grimm]

It's nice that the Mets have a healthy competition for the suckiest reliever role.

[MFS62]

That was my point. He and Stanek are at the bottom. I was joking about who was the lowest.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

The 9th inning started last night with each team at a 50/50 win probability. Those odds are generic in that they don't take team strengths/weaknesses into consideration, home field advantage, or who the pitcher is/where the lineups are at, etc., just the fact that each team has the same number of half-innings left therefore equal odds.

- Top 9: Diaz's 1-2-3 inning raised the NYM win odds, in succession, to 56%, 60%, 63%

- Bottom 9: those odds were jacked up to 71% after Marte's single, then 81% (1st & 2nd), to 94% following Baty's flair, and obviously to 100% by Nimmo's single.



So what that's telling us is that a team batting in B-9 in a tie game with bases loaded/no outs in a tie game still goes on to lose the game 6% of the time!

My initial thought is that that seems high, especially as how it says that the number of times the home team fails to score from that situation [1-2-3/no outs] is higher still as even not scoring leaves them with a 50/50 shot at a 'W' via extras - so it's more like 12% of the time, or about one time in eight.

Same with the 63% when B-9 starts: the home team typically scores the game-winner in B-9 only around 13% of the time (approx 1 game in 7) and, if not, they then go on to split the games where they don't score [13% + 50%].



But I guess when you see your team not score from one of those situations you think they blew the equivalent of an uncontested lay-up when it actually happens much more often than that. We just don't curse, throw things around the room, and demand that someone be fired immediately when it happens to someone else. And most of the time we don't even notice when it happens during someone else's game.