NL ERA Race

[Frayed Knot]

Tonight's 7 IP/0 ER performance lowered deGrom's season ERA to 2.426 [204 IP / 55 ER] putting him just a coupla ticks behind LAD's Hyun-Jin Ryu and his 2.407 [175-2/3 IP / 45 ER]

Ryu is expected to make one more start in the regular season, I believe on Saturday at home vs the Giants.



Now obviously if Ryu allows no runs then he wins the title regardless of how long he goes in the game.

And if Ryu gives up three or more then he would have to pitch into extra innings (which he never does and obviously isn't going to do on the eve of the playoffs) to keep JdG from winning the title.

It's the middle ground where it gets interesting - and possibly something that Dave Roberts might want to manipulate.



If Ryu gives up exactly One ER in his final start then he'd have to be credited with at least eight outs (2-2/3 innings) to retain the title he now holds. 8 outs/1 ER = 2.422 ERA

But if/when Ryu gives up a second earned run then his required out/inning total jumps to 19 outs / 6-1/3 IP in order to keep the lead. 19 outs/2 ER = 2.423





Ryu has gone 7 innings in each of his last two starts. And, as usual for deGrom, if he loses this one it's going to all be the fault of his offense since the Mets were Ryu's opponent

two starts ago, the first of those 7-inning outings, when he threw 7 shutout/2-hit innings. More recently (9/22) Colorado touched him up for 3 earned over 7



Where Roberts might want to get cute would be in pulling HJR as soon as he reaches those out/inning totals I listed (if I can figure them out I assume their analytics people can too)

before some SFG bat "runs into one" and spoils it for him.

[Edgy MD]

Where Callaway might want to get cute would be in throwing two innings to deGrom on closing day if he falls behind.

[Frayed Knot]

Ryu threw 7 shutout innings today so ... pfffft.

[bmfc1]

Hey Dave Roberts, go F yourself:

https://twitter.com/THEREAL_DV/status/1178021534675267584https://twitter.com/THEREAL_DV/status/1178021534675267584

[nymr83]

Edgy MD wrote: Where Callaway might want to get cute would be in throwing two innings to deGrom on closing day if he falls behind.

Brilliant!

[Edgy MD]

Unfortunately, Ryu is at actually at 2.31565117425. For deGrom to top that, he'd have to throw 9 2/3 shutout innings this afternoon.