Steamed for 2019

[Edgy MD]

Which positions do them damn Steamer forecasts present the most success from? Well, I tried to do the math, with some interpolation and induction and real Fields Medal stuff like that.



Takeaways:

• Steamy is real bearish on the viability of the Mets' catching situation, and sees all available candidates getting less PT than you might expect, and so leaves 18 starts behind the dish as a problem to be solved.


• 2018 breakthrough dudes like Nimrod and McNelt are also grizzlies.


• The team remains kind of thin in the outfield, compared to the infield, and I ended up giving a chunk of McNally's PT to to right field. Who knows how that'll break, however. The notion is that the team will have to find 50 or more starts in the outfield, and they don't think Gregor Blanco is going to fill that role. They do see playing time for Rajai Davis, but of the utterly futile kind.


• Steamer thinks that Smith is an absolute load over at first base, but will still get plenty of time to prove just what a load he is. While more is expected of Alfonso, they don't exactly see him as a savior.

Wow, not a lot of that is good news! Bryce Harper might not be coming, but an outfielder of some stripe might be.


[list=]

Second Base:

Canó (145 GS, 147 G): 3.5 fWAR

McNeil (14 GS, 15 G): 0.5

Ceccini (3 GS, 3 G): 0.0

Total: 4.0 fWAR



Left Field:

Conforto (118 GS, 131 G): 2.8

Céspedes (41 GS, 44 G): 0.7

Field (Tebow?) (3 GS, 4 G): 0.0

3.5 fWAR



Catcher:

Ramos (87 GS, 90 G): 2.1

d'Arnaud (44 GS, 45 G): 0.7

Plawecki (11 GS, 12 G): 0.2

Nido (2 GS, 3 G): 0.0

Field (Plaia? Mazeika? Sanchez?) (18 GS, 2 G): 0.0

3.0 fWAR



Third Base

Frazier (122 GS, 126 G): 1.9

McNeil (24 GS, 25 G): 0.4

Rivera (15 GS, 22 G): 0.0

Guillorme (1 GS, 1 G): 0.0

2.3 fWAR



Right Field

Nimmo (78 GS, 104 G): 1.7

McNeil (31 GS, 32 G): 0.5

Field (Blanco, Tebow, Evans Lee, Bianco, etc.) (53 GS, 66 G): 0.0

2.2 fWAR



Shortstop

Rosario (142 GS, 147 G): 2.1

Guillorme (20 GS, 27 G): 0.0

2.1 fWAR



Center Field

Lagares (75 GS, 100 G): 1.0

Nimmo (35 GS, 43 G): 0.7

Davis (35 GS, 44 G): -0.2

Conforto (17 GS, 18 G): 0.4

1.9 fWAR



First Base

Smith (74 GS, 83 G): -0.3

Alonso (84 GS, 84 G): 1.0

Frazier (4 GS, 4 G): 0.1

0.8 fWAR

[smg58]

There are a lot of things that don't make sense in the projections, starting with Nimmo but they shortchanged Conforto too and probably McNeil as well.



If the WAR difference between Alonso and Smith is that big (and this is assuming a modest rookie season for Alonso), there is no way the playing time will be that even of a split.



I would also assume that there is no way Frazier starts ahead of McNeil against right-handed pitching. We are trying to win, right?

[metsmarathon]

So without making any adjustments the Mets project out 5th best in the NL. 5games back of the nats. But also 5 games up on the braves. Phillies just behind that, and marlins ways down in sucksville.



Sure, machado and Harper have yet to land, but unless both end up in the east, we're in decent shape.



I'd still like to be stronger of course. Know any good first basemen?

[smg58]

So the Nats are picking up 18 games on the Braves. While (presumably) losing Harper. Interesting.



We're going to need to make a mental note to come back to this thread in October.