How bad is Chris Davis?

[Guest 41Forever]

The Wall Street Journal says he's on a pace for something historical.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-slugger-who-is-on-track-for-the-worst-single-season-in-baseball-history-1531085328

Keep in mind, he signed a seven-year, $161 million contract in 2016.

[seawolf17]

Similar story from Deadspin a few weeks back for those who can't get past the WSJ paywall: https://deadspin.com/are-the-orioles-going-to-let-chris-davis-have-the-worst-1826667920

They just keep throwing him out there, too.

[Edgy MD]

Krusher Davis is an object lesson for everybody as we fumble with the three-true outcomes, clout-or-a-whiff era that is producing some of the most boring baseball in decades.

Signing him after 2013 would have been worthy of celebration. Signing him after 2015 would have been understandable. Signing him after 2016 (.221 batting average! 219 strikeouts!!) was courting disaster. He's probably not finished. Adam Dunn had a few more reasonably productive years after his disastrously whifftastic 2011, but it's a highly volatile skill set, that you want to be careful about anchoring your team's fates too.

[seawolf17]

You know, he's only barely even a 3TO guy, because he doesn't walk all that much.

[Edgy MD]

That is truish. I thought he walked enough to qualify as a 3TO guy, but not as a model version.

[smg58]

The league has figured out how to pitch (and defend) these guys, and Davis is even more one-dimensional than most. Unless you have a walk rate like Bautista, you have to hit 30 home runs to carry much value with that approach. Having a bad back or a bad shoulder (not naming names) can kill your value completely.

And yet somehow, it feels like the whole league bought into this as the way to go, the Mets even more so than most. And now, assuming the league office doesn't do something profoundly stupid, it's adapt or die.

[Ceetar]

I don't think anyone 'figured out' Chris Davis, just that he started to decline and had only one tool, that of power, which plummeted. (see also: Jay Bruce)

the numbers have gotten worse this year, but like 15-16-17 it's not like he was striking out much more. he wasn't missing the ball more. he started walking less and less but was still walking in '16.

He's just pulling less, hitting it lower, and weaker. Pretty much exactly the definition of 'losing bat speed'.

[batmagadanleadoff]

All around, HR's are down by about 25% from last year. That'a huge drop. Make of it what you will.

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: All around, HR's are down by about 25% from last year. That'a huge drop. Make of it what you will.

I got about 8.2% down, or 500 home runs over the course of the season. That's still be about 2017 levels and 1500 more than 2014.

And we've still got some hot summer months of above average to make up some of that.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: All around, HR's are down by about 25% from last year. That'a huge drop. Make of it what you will. I got about 8.2% down, or 500 home runs over the course of the season. That's still be about 2017 levels and 1500 more than 2014. And we've still got some hot summer months of above average to make up some of that.

You're right. HR's are down by about nine percent, with most of July and and all of August left, the warmest months.