I think you're forgetting about the role played by the coach here. Oddly enough, on the Miami broadcast (I don't know about the NYC broadcast), there was a quick shot of Soto admiring his blast for a long second. Obviously what he could tell was that the ball was either going to go out of the park (which it very nearly did) or be caught by the LFer, who was positioned perfectly. The Mets' first base coach could see the same, of course, and he could have yelled to Lindor "Tag" (and then "Go") in that second, reducing the need for Lindor to make any of your complicated calculations. I'm not quarreling with you that the circumstances (fast runner, deep fly with OFer positioned perfectly, long throw) arise very often, or even that last night's play was especially poor judgment, but more generally, you almost never see an advance on a sac fly with a runner on first, no matter how promising the conditions. I can't remember the last time I saw it. And I continue to maintain that in some instances, like last night, the runner on first has a MUCH greater chance of success than attempting a stolen base. To me, it looked as if Lindor could have taken second base easily on Soto's fly ball. And BTW if we're going to play retrospective vision games, that particular advance turned out to be unnecessary since instead of hitting into the DP that my plan would have prevented, Alonso hit a HR that scored Lindor anyway.