RealityChuck

You're no fun anymore.

If Looper could pitch in New York, he'd still be pitching in New York. It certainly didn't hurt the Mets that, when Looper threw the pitchout, he threw it with about as much velocity as you do when giving someone an intentional walk. Molina had to rush the throw, and probably couldn't have caught Tucker anyway. I can just imagine the conversation on the mound just before the pitch: Molina: What's the problem? Looper: That sign you gave me. I don't recognize it. Molina: It's a pitchout. Looper: Pitchout? What's that? Molina (after rolling eyes): You throw the ball to me and I throw out the runner when he tries to steal. Looper: We can do that? Molina: Yes. Looper: Man, LaRussa is a genius to come up with that play. Do you want it down the middle? Molina: No! Outside so the guy can't hit it. Looper: Oh. I get it. You've got it. (Molina leaves mound) Looper (To himself). Just like an intentional walk. I'll throw it nice and slow so Yaddy can catch it easier. Umpire: Play ball! The rest is history.

Most interesting tidbit in the Stark piece: ]By winning, Maine also kept alive one of the most astounding trends ever dug up by the Elias Sports Bureau. He was the seventh rookie starter in history to start a postseason game with his team trailing, 3-2, in a best-of-seven series. Those rookies' teams now have won all seven of those games. Who knew? As Fred Gailey said, "Maybe I didn't do such a wonderful thing after all."

Maine 5 Reyes 2 LoDuca 2 Green 1

Gwreck wrote: Reyes took the curtain call, as the Jose-Jose-Jose-Jose chant continued long after the homer. Curtain call for a solo homer in the 1st was a risky proposition (ie. inviting a pitch to the rear end), I thought. I doubt that. It's not the player that initiated it; it was the fans. They're the ones who pay the salaries, so if they want a curtain call, why blame the player for giving them that? But, I do admit, it was tempting fate.

Hillbilly wrote: ="apmorris"]trying not to (over) think that this is a benefit for the Cards pitching. Well one idea out there is that Tony would go with Carpenter on 3 days rest on Tuesday. I think it would benifit the Mets, if he burns his ace before the series returns to Shea. That wouldn't make much sense. If the Card win, he has his ace ready to clinch; if they lose, he has their ace ready to pitch to stave off elimination.

Doesn't mean anything. One game for each of the pitchers? And Martinez is, what, 12 years old or something?

Willets Point wrote: 1) Should Traschel pitch again as a Met ever, including the remainder of the NLCS and World Series? Sure -- he may be erratic, but he's an arm, and the team is short of starters. ]2) Whether Trax should return to the Mets next season and beyond? No. His contract is up and there are options just as good or better coming up from the minors. Say "thanks" to him, but let him go elsewhere.

Frayed Knot wrote: Virtually all "Post-Season" records are, of course, ridiculously skewed towards players of the most recent generationObviously. There are almost three times as many postseason games as there were prior to 1968. Ford's wins were all in World Series. The records are comparing apples to oranges.

I'm guessing that Perez will go at least six innings unless the Mets are on the verge of elimination. Why? For the same reason Willie left Hernandez in during a game where he was getting pounded. Glavine will be coming back on three days rest, so Willie's going to want the bullpen ready to take over early for Tom.

Mets have 60 percent chance of winning league championship series ]Mets have 60 percent chance of winning league championship series, says Bukiet at NJIT The New York Mets have a 60 percent chance of taking the the National League Championship series, with a 24 percent chance of clinching the deal in six games, said Bruce Bukiet. Bukiet, an associate professor of mathematical sciences at New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT), offers new picks for winning teams based on a mathematical model he developed in 2000. More picks include: * A 40 percent probability of the St. Louis Cardinals making it to the World Series with a 19 percent chance of winning in seven games. * In the American League, the Yankee-slaying Detroit Tigers have a 58 percent chance of prevailing over the Oakland A's. The Tigers' most likely winning scenario is a 19 percent chance of winning in six games, while Oakland's most likely winning scenario is their 15.5 percent chance of taking the series in seven games. Bukiet achieves results by using his mathematical models on realistic line-ups for each team and game. For updates on the progress of the series, visit http://m.njit.edu/~bukiet/playoffs.htm). "Anything can happen in a short series," added Bukiet. "We saw that in the division series Jeff Weaver yielded no runs for the first time in over 30 outings. In addition, the Yankees were held scoreless for 21 consecutive innings." Operations Research published Bukiet's mathematical model on which his predictions are based. His model computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage. Bukiet has appeared on CNN Headline News, the Jerusalem Post and Fox Radio's Roger Hedgecock Show, KOGO, San Diego. Interview Bukiet in person at 518 Cullimore Hall, by telephone (973-596-8392) or email bukiet@m.njit.edu. Bukiet, an avid Mets fan, has used this mathematical model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games during the baseball season. His picks posted on his website update daily the chances of each team winning the Division Series, the Championship Series and the World Series. Such postings have led to positive results for five of the past six years. ### Bukiet's research focuses on the mathematical modeling of physical phenomena. Current interests include biomedical applications of mathematics, including the dynamics of human balance. He also works in the application of mathematical modeling for sports and gambling, in particular for understanding baseball and cricket. His publications include "Postural Stability Index Is a More Valid Measure of Stability Than Equilibrium Score" Journal of Rehabilitation Research and Development (July/August, 2005) and "Measures of Postural Stability," Journal of Rehabilitation Research and Development (Sept/Oct, 2004). Bukiet recently received the NJIT Excellence in Teaching Award for Outstanding Work. Bukiet received his PhD in mathematics from the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University. NJIT, New Jersey's science and technology university, enrolls more than 8,000 students in bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees in 92 degree programs offered by six colleges: Newark College of Engineering, New Jersey School of Architecture, College of Science and Liberal Arts, School of Management, Albert Dorman Honors College and College of Computing Sciences. NJIT is renowned for expertise in architecture, applied mathematics, wireless communications and networking, solar physics, advanced engineered particulate materials, nanotechnology, neural engineering and eLearning. In 2006, Princeton Review named NJIT among the nation's top 25 campuses for technology and top 150 for best value. U.S. News & World Report's 2007 Annual Guide to America's Best Colleges ranked NJIT in the top tier of national research universities.

PITCHERS (11): Chad Bradford, Pedro Feliciano, Tom Glavine, Aaron Heilman, Roberto Hernandez, John Maine, Guillermo Mota, Darren Oliver, Oliver Perez, Steve Trachsel, Billy Wagner CATCHERS (2): Paul Lo Duca, Ramon Castro INFIELDERS (7): Carlos Delgado, Julio Franco, Anderson Hernandez, Jose Reyes, Jose Valentin, Chris Woodward, David Wright OUTFIELDERS (5): Carlos Beltran, Endy Chavez, Cliff Floyd, Shawn Green, Michael Tucker

Man, that site is pathetic. I mean, I've have a lot of frustration over the Mets over the past 40 years, but I'd never resort to the sort of vicious crap you see over there. If you hate the players so much, why root for the team? It's just a festering cesspool of immaturity and hate. Really sad.

Yancy Street Gang wrote:I had no idea Peter David was a Mets fan. Good for him! He always did seem like an intelligent guy, and he was the first writer in years to take a fresh look at the Hulk and do something daringly different.I was at a science fiction convention over this weekend (helping run it, as a matter of fact), and Sunday morning I was gloating with another Mets fan (Ian Randal Strock, a science fiction author and editor) when Peter overheard us. He came over and joined in, playing the part of a frustrated MFY fan and shaking his fist and shouting, "If only we spent more money on free agents!" Peter also shares my feelings about sabermetrics and that [url=http://www.sff.net/people/rothman/alien.htm]Alien is one of the worst SF films of all time[/url].He's a fun person to be around, and a great convention guest: you can put him on any panel and he'll be magnificent.

If the name is unfamiliar, he's a [url=http://peterdavid.malibulist.com/Bibliography.html]very successful comic book writer[/url], best known for writing "The Incredible Hulk" for several years, as well as dozens of other titles. He's also had several novels out, wrote scripts and novelizations for Babylon Five, had several Star Trek novels, wrote movie scripts, and was author of the column "But I Digress" in the Comics Buyers Guide. He was celebrating a bit on Sunday. :)[/url]

I'd lean toward Perez. He's been pitching OK lately and definitely has more upside if he's on. Williams would be my next choice after Perez. But he's just as likely to pitch poorly as Perez, and does not have the upside. Bannister isn't an option. I like him, but he has not been pitching enough in the majors to be given a start in the playoffs.

It's all Torre's fault. After all, he was the one person on the roster who wasn't hitting.

Ah, what a great day to be a Mets fan. I was at a science fiction convention this weekend, and was enjoying the moment with Ian Randal Strock, and editor. Our guest of honor, Peter David (writer for the Hulk and other comics, novelist, screenplay writer, etc.) overheard and joined in the conversation. Peter is a hoot, shaking his fist in the guise of a MFY fan and saying, "If only they spent some money on free agents!" For the first time since 1988, the Mets' season in longer than the Yankees'. Let's bask in that joy.

="Willets Point"]"Bring your beard, bring your wife!" What if your wife is your beard?

smg58 wrote: So Maine is an emergency the Mets wanted to avoid, and Kuo is a difference-maker. I suppose it doesn't matter that Maine had the better season. It disturbs me that some people think that tonight's pitching matchup (1 ML win vs. nearly 300) actually favors LA, and that not all these people are Dodgers fans. Excellent point. When the Mets start a rookie with a better record that Kuo (more wins this year, better ERA, better WHIP, more innings, etc.), it's a dangerous desperation move. Because, of course, Maine has no postseason experience. Kuo, on the other hand, has no postseason experience. But postseason experience is overrated. The Mets won two World Series using pitchers who had no postseason experience going in. One win in 1960 was won by a rookie pitcher, with a second-year man in relief. It's something to talk about, but not all that important. Aha, but Kuo is a lefthander, and the Mets don't hit lefthanders . . . well, didn't Murry Chass debunk that: yes, the team record in the second half was bad against lefties, but it was as much a function of some bad pitching on the Mets part than it was due to them being able to hit lefties. Maybe the Mets sandbagged it in Pittsburgh to fool Grady Little into getting Kuo to start.

Kent's misjudgment was minor; Drew's was major. Once he saw that Kent was out, then Drew should have gone back to third. It's doubtful Lo Duca would have realized he had a play (Lo Duca said he had no idea what was happening -- couldn't hear his teammates screaming -- and only realized something was up by the way the umpire called the out, like something more was about to happen). And though Donnelly has some justification for sending Kent (he said later he knew Kent would get cut down, but he wanted to stop Drew and have runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out), it would have been smarter to stop him and let the Dodgers have two runners at third. Worst case scenario then: one out, men on 2nd and 3rd. Best case: Drew gets caught in a rundown and Kent scores. One run in, man on second, one out. But that certainly wouldn't have occurred to Donnelly (or anyone) during the play.

Interesting article in the Times about the play. Donnelly says he was going to hold up Kent at third, but when he saw Drew right behind him, he didn't dare, since that would put two Dodgers on third. Not the record for Dodgers on third base*, but still . . . So he had send Kent to the plate. *The classic old-time Dodger play where Babe Herman tripled into a double play and the Dodgers had three baserunners on third.

And it looks like the Mets were once victims, too. And one of the players tagged out was in the dugout today.

That's only the seventh time in MLB history when a catcher tagged out two. The first time in the postseason. See http://members.tripod.com/bb_catchers/catchers/doubletag2.htm Still, sending Kent wasn't that horrible a decision -- I've seen the Mets try things like that all season, daring the other team to make a perfect throw. Looks like the Mets did. But Drew is guilty of abysmal baserunning.