Edgy MD

Kirby Yates! We have a pan-Pacific grudge match! A Hawaiian pitching against a Guamanian!

Long live The Hyphen!

Holy crap! It's Sean Reid-Foley!!

Edgy MD wrote: I've been trying not to write this sentence, because I don't know what I'm talking about, but I suspect Marcel Ozuna of being drugged to the gills. Are we sure he isn't Chipper Jones in disguise? Seeing as Chipper's in the booth and 51 years old, I think we're safe on that score.

I've been trying not to write this sentence, because I don't know what I'm talking about, but I suspect Marcel Ozuna of being drugged to the gills.

Álvarez is looking like quite the hole in the lineup these days.

Strange call to challenge. Stranger still that they overturned it.

Edgy MD wrote: Also, it's Rick Springfield's birthday, so if that isn't reason enough to play our best, I don't know what is. Barbara Eden (Morehead) was born today too. But you go with Rick Springfield. Interesting. Hmmm ... Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea vs. Battlestar Gallactica. It's a big day either way.

I just re-watched the inning. There was no replay that gave an indication where Locastro was when Harris got to the ball, or where the ball was when Locastro hit the breaks.

The calculations aren't really about determining whether or not to send the guy. They're about the level of confidence you would need to have. In some situations, you don't want to send the guy unless you're 95% confident he can make it. In other situations, the advantage of the extra base is enough that you would send the guy even if there's only a 30% chance he can make it. Those factors you list may help determine what the coach's or the runner's confidence may be, but the math is more or less set in stone.

Well, there's a vote for 0% likelihood of success.

New York tries to take a series against the league's best by sending lefty José Quintana, coming off his first Metly win, facing longtimer Charlie Morton. Morton throws with his right arm, so the Mets strategy of stacking lefties may continue. Or it may not. I don't know. The team continues to be sandwiched between San Diego (a game ahead) and Washington (a half game behind) and opportunities to move up are still available to them if they can TCB, with swooning San Francisco falling from their once-seemingly secure perch of the second Wild Card spot, their fates suddenly swapped with those of red-hot Pham-led Arizona. Five teams sit within a single game of each other around those two positions, and with the Giants playing the Phillies, the Marlins playing the Padres, and the Diamondbacks playing the Reds, there could be a lot of movement before nightfall. So root for the Mets to take this one, and if you can do it without bringing harm on yourself, root for the Yankees to break out of their free-fall and help get the Nationals off our tail. Also, it's Rick Springfield's birthday, so if that isn't reason enough to play our best, I don't know what is.

Well, I tried to make clear what they had a lot to lose if they failed, which was no small amount. And, of course, they had a lot to gain if they succeeded. I'm not sure what the final calculus is, or if my estimate of the likelihood of success is low, high, or perfectly accurate. There's a lot of math available on issues of baserunner advancement that can likely clarify what the break-even point is — telling us just how likely a chance of success Locastro would have needed to make going the right decision.

It strikes me that an important difference-maker in this game was Tim Locastro entering as a pinch-runner, but not only not stealing, but not going first-to-third on D.J. Stewart's single. Had he stolen, he's in a position to score on Stewart's hit. The argument for him stealing is simple enough. He's the tying run. He wants to take away the double play. His brand as "Fastest Dude in Baseball" is probably more rep than fact at this point (he's 31), but that's why he's there. He's not on the team to just be faster than Vogelbach. His speed is supposed to be more than an asset, but a weapon, and once the game is afoot, weapons need to be fired to be effective. He gets in there, with a hot batter coming up, and (assuming what follows still follows), he scores on the single. Also, did you know that Travis d'Arnaud has only thrown out 13% of would-be base-stealers this season? Well, I'm here to tell you that that Travis d'Arnaud has only thrown out 13% of would-be base-stealers this season. Mike Piazza used to be treated as a joke when he'd throw out 22–25% of attempted larcenists, but those are now the numbers that good catchers are getting. The stolen base is a more-achievable thing. The argument against him stealing is simple enough. Raisel Iglesias hasn't been stolen on since last season. If you don't need to respect the catcher all that much, you need to respect the pitcher. And if the pitcher can keep you close enough to first, the catcher suddenly becomes a greater factor. He only had two pitches on which to run, with Stewart lining the third pitch to center, so he might not have even gotten a feel for his legs. The argument for him going first-to-third? Also simple enough. The Mets have been ridiculous about respecting Ronald Acuña's arm in right these last two series, staying stuck to the bag when the ball is in play in a part of the ballpark where one has come to think of advancing as automatic. But Michael Harris ain't Ronald Acuña. His outfield arm is merely terrific, not best-in-baseball great (like Acuña's), and that's matched up against Locastro's wheels which are also terrific, which should negate the terrificness of Harris' arm. And they may actually be best-in-baseball great (though probably not — not anymore.) But getting third would've given Locastro two chances to score the tying run on an out, the chance to score the tying run on a double play (which Álvarez subsequently hit into). If the throw from Harris gets away, he scores and the go-ahead run is in scoring position. If he's in there, perhaps Austin Riley comes home with the subsequent grounder, but even if he's out, the Mets still have one out and the tying and go-ahead runs on base. And it's a tough play with the runner directly between Riley and the catcher. If that ball bounces off of him, the game is tied with the go-ahead run on third with no out! And with runners on first and third, Riley may not even be guarding the line there and can't do much with that grounder at all. But that's probably wishful thinking. He's probably guarding the line. The argument against him going first-to-third is mostly about the book. The book says you don't make the first out at third. If he's thrown out, that's what he's doing. You have three chances to score on a base hit, and you can even (in theory) score by advancing twice on outs from second, and so you don't want to die at third. The book also says that you play for the tie at home, and the win on the road, which means being conservative with that first runner, and more aggressive with the second. (Maybe Abraham Almonte or Danny Mendick or Kodai Senga or somebody should have pinch-run for Stewart, but that ship has sailed while this decision making is happening, and the short-term advantage would have likely only been marginal.) Also, my comments about Harris' arm not being Acuña's isn't that strong an argument. it's still terrific. And he's a lefthanded thrower, which makes it a lot easier for him to come up with the ball and throw to third without having to twist his body into position. in summary, I don't know if the call to hold at second was Locastro's or Joey Cora's. I think the chance he makes it are somewhere between 45 and 65 percent, and that's not the strongest. But the game had a playoff tenseness about it at the end, and it kind of called for weapon-on-weapon decision-making at the end. A terrific arm against a terrific set of wheels. That would have been objectively cool, and subjectively awesome if he made it. But I dunno.

Gary Cohen announced it as, "The Yankees have lost their ninth game in a row — the longest since 1982, when Clyde King was their manager!" I'm thinking, "You don't have to look it up to know that there's no way that King was their only manager that season."

I'll admit that I don't understand the "go streaming" reference.

That's always been true and probably always is going to be true, right up until he signs a long-term, no-trade contract. And then it goes from major question to minor question. The only permanent thing is the change, baby.

Good game. Bad outcome.

That's another reason to use the bunt.

I'd bunt him here. If only to force the infield to come in.

Stabilizing rotation, and now their bullpen is stabilizing. May it not be so late as to be in vain.

Vogelbach, Stewart, Álvarez in the ninth. Powa, powa, powa.

Lou Seal wins The Great Mascot Race.

Jonathan Araúz is the best .111 hitter in Mets history. Show 'em why.

Kolarek shows versatility. I like. Kolarek muestra versatilidad. Me gusta.