Edgy MD

=Cowtipper post_id=155340 time=1715713193 user_id=166] It seemed that, as we are talking about the major leagues, the assumption of 'major league experience' was built into the statement. But as I've had to spell things out for the less-than-critical thinkers in the past, I'll spell it out here, as well. He managed in the low minors over a decade ago. No comparison.

=MFS62 post_id=155336 time=1715712906 user_id=60] I can't watch, so I'm following the box score on Yahoo Sports. Wendle reached on catcher's interference, but it wasn't counted as an at bat.(like a walk) I never knew that. Isn't catcher's interference an error? Later

=Cowtipper post_id=155335 time=1715712812 user_id=166] This is Mendoza's first year managing in the majors.

Mendoza may be a bad manager, but he isn't off the street, and he has managerial experience.

OR ... rip one into left. I can ask Taylor to take, but compliance would not be consistent with his character.

Taylor leading off next inning: (1) Take a strike. (2) If he gets started off with a strike, look to bunt for a hit on the next pitch.

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=155313 time=1715710664 user_id=68]But how accurate or reliable is WAR?

It's as good a time as any for a baserunner.

Cattywampus.

=Cowtipper post_id=155305 time=1715709241 user_id=166] So a 40% blown save rate is acceptable as long as the advanced metrics make him look good. Noted.

Runs score without balls in play when we play day games on Tuesday.

Also I called the collapse of deGrom long before anyone else did. This seems obvious, but ... (a) you are again citing evidence not in record; ( you cannot cite "anyone else," unless you've somehow polled everyone else, which I feel comfortable believing you haven't; © predicting a player will decline coming off of a peak as high as deGrom was on is the very easiest prediction in the world. To think this would be somehow impressive to me, had this been in record here, is mistaken.

=Cowtipper post_id=155296 time=1715706558 user_id=166] You can be as reductive as you want, or change the goalposts if you want,

(1) Clearly, I care. If you don't, you don't. (2) All statistics are flawed (saves and blown saves included, perhaps more than most), but merely saying so doesn't clarify anything. (3) He did do his job. Correctly. (4) There is no trend, by any statistic.

Diaz's 2022 season was one of the all-time best ever for a reliever. Of course it was an outlier. Expecting Diaz to repeat that season, even if he'd never had a season wipe-out injury last year would be like having expected Roger Maris to top 60 HR's several more times. I have no idea how effective Diaz'll be going forward, but I'm certainly not gonna hold him to the standard he set in 2022. Ron Darling just said more or less the same thing on the game introduction. "Twenty twenty-two was an historic year. Let's not compare him to 2022. He may never get to that level again. That doesn't mean ... something something something ... ."

One thing we can take from the data above, though, if we are willing to accept both bWAR and extrapolation at face value, his 2020 season was even more productive than 2022, relative to the length of the season.

Nor am I.

Trends result in totals, so I'm not wrong. I don't think you understand, but totals aren't trends until they are broken into units whose differences can be compared. It takes more than two units to plot a trend. The first is a starting point, so there is only one change. One difference What a trend is is a consistency in change, and there can be no consistency across a unit of one. You cannot have a "trend" between two points — certainly not one that has any meaning. This is the actual trajectory of Mr. Díaz' career. https://i0.wp.com/metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2024/05/diaz-productivty.png?ssl=1 > Red seasons represent his time with the Mariners. Blue seasons represent his time with the Mets. As can be gleaned, his performance has risen and fallen, like most relievers, but no consistent year-to-year trend emerges whatsoever. I'd say you're grasping at straws because you invested a lot of "liking" and "hope" into Diaz and you don't want to be let down. I'm doing nothing of the sort. Please don't presume to analyze me, and please don't use quotes to represent me in terms I have not written or spoken. I want to be wrong, ... About the trend you claim you've isolated, you are certainly wrong. ...but I've called the demise of A LOT of Mets long before many fans were willing to admit it, ... 1. You're changing your argument from isolating a trend to calling a demise. (Is Edwin Díaz about to die?) 2. You're propping up a straw man. 3. You're citing evidence not in the record. ... so I have a history of being correct. About what? About recognizing that all athletes fail and all careers end eventually? Because that's hardly an insight.

Again, that's not how a trend is understood or represented. And no, missing a season is not representative of a consistent trend if a guy returns the next season. That is the reversal of a trend. A trend is presented on an graph with two axes, frequntly with units of time (years, quarters, months, or such) on the X axis and productivity (sales, output, wins) on the Y axis. What you presented are two totals. Those totals would look very much the opposite if 2019 was included in the first block, which is just as credible and just as misleading in framing as a consistent trend when the data is still piled into two lumps. It's not consistent at all. This is a trend: [FIMG=400]https://www.isixsigma.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/trend-analysis1-400x300.png[/FIMG] This is a trend: [FIMG=400]https://files.ondemandhosting.info/imagecache/cropfit@w=652@cr=700,42,3000,1685/data/scientology-courses/files/conditions-trend-graphs-danger_en.jpg[/FIMG] Also a trend: [FIMG=400]https://support.minitab.com/en-us/minitab/media/generated-content/images/trend_analysis_tennis_racquet_sales.PNG[/FIMG]

He missed all of last season. He hasn't missed this year. That, by definition, isn't consistent. You are showing totals and not a year-to-year trend.

"Decline" suggests a consistent trend, though, and that's not really what's happening.

He really owned his shit in the post-game interview, I thought. And I admired that he kept battling after those two rough non-calls, with mostly fumes left in the tank.

Five infielders, five outfielders, and a full-time DH is not working. Mendoza doesn't like Baty up in key late-game situations against lefthanders. I could dispute that in general, but most importantly with regard to the roster, Carlos is using two guys, from an already short bench, to replace one. They send Taylor up for Baty and then put in Wendle. So you lose Baty in the seventh or eighth, you take your best reserve outfielder's glove out of the game, you take your best reserve baserunner's legs out of the game, and then maybe you get Wendle up in a game situation in the ninth or tenth, in this case against an even tougher lefty that he couldn't even bunt to a wide-open right side against. I like Taylor, but had that been Vientos on the roster instead of him, Mark gets the pinch-hit assignment, and if he doesn't come through then, he gets another crack in the 10th against Alvarado, instead of the pile of lefties we were sending up there, trying to swing with the ball coming at them from behind their right ears. If they have Vientos and Taylor, they have the first one up instead of Wendle in the 10th, and the second one available to pinch-run. A much stronger look. So yeah, this roster needs Vientos, but JD Martinez and DJ Stewart and Tyrone Taylor (despite Mendoza's neglect) have all justified their presence with their bats as well as anybody. The ones who aren't justifying their presence right now — Joey Wendle and the apparently doghoused Omar Narváez — are the lone backup at positions that nobody else plays. I'd say that the answer is bagging the five-man rotation, but that would almost certainly mean they add another reliever because that's what teams do, so I don't know what the answer is, but I think maybe they should call up Vientos, but dress him in the uniform of whoever yesterday's starting pitcher was. That way he can be on the roster, doing his thing, but nobody will know it's him!

1. He looks like he has no confidence out there, like he's waiting for an anvil to drop on him. 2. Neither his fastball nor his slider are what they were in 2022. 3. Interestingly, and somewhat (if only somewhat) encouragingly, both pitches tend to improve over the course of an outing, with the fastball getting more legs and the slider getting more bite. 4. Unfortunately, he has to go deep into an outing to get to that point, and if your closer is going deep into an outing, things are already bad. 5. Unfortunately as well, even though both pitches tend to improve over the course of an outing, neither quite get there, with the slider having a dip at the tail, rather than that frisbee movement that had batters chasing it a foot and a half away. 6. With less movement, he has to throw more strikes. Nobody's chasing anymore. 7. Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: They really need to reign in the hype over Diaz. It's embarrassing. They really do. Entrance music in general just sets people up to fail. 8. I think he'll get it back. Most of it, anyhow. He just needs to find confidence in his legs again. In the meantime, though, he might do a lot of damage to the team if they keep relying on him. They need to mix things up at the back end. [fimg=550]https://cdn.mlbtraderumors.com/files/2019/06/Diaz.Edwin_-1024x674.jpg[/fimg]

Flurng.