Frayed Knot

Masahiro Tanaka opts not to opt. Tanaka had to make a call by tomorrow (Sat.) and the call he made was NOT to trigger the opt-out clause in his contract. He will instead remain with the Yanx at the pre-agreed upon terms: $67 million total for the 2018-2020 seasons He basically picked a bad time to have a mediocre season so realized that testing free agency at this time in order to best his existing contract would not have been a smart move.

-- Andrew McCutcheon had his option picked up by Pittsburgh. Remember that they were trying (at least to some degree) to deal him at this time last year. -- but the Marlins did NOT pick up the option on Ichiro Suzuki. He can still put the bat on the ball and his walk rate is actually better than during most of his career (.255 BA / .318 OBA), but he doesn't run anymore, doesn't play the kind of defense he used to, and 41 of his 50 hits were singles so he was almost more of a novelty than anything. Not sure if there's a suitor out there for him or not. -- Matt Weiters exercised his player's option for year two of the one-plus-one deal he signed with the Nationals late last winter -- remember that he was homeless until the end of February!! He neither hit as well as he/they hoped [.225/.288/.344] nor played particularly good defense (some mistakes may have cost them the Cubs series) so you can understand why he'd jump on this option rather than taking a chance on the open market. I suspect he'll get less playing time this year. -- The Angels and Justin Upton extended/reworked his deal in lieu of him invoking his opt-out clause. He had signed a six year deal with Detroit prior to 2016 and then was dealt to LAA in late August. He winds up getting one extra year tacked on to a deal which had been scheduled to run thru 2021. He had a decent bounce-back year: 901 OPS following a couple in the upper-700s/low-800s

That blew over almost immediately. He wanted to play SS, a position which carries with it a sense of pride for a lot of players and often particularly so for Latin ones, and even though he's spent seasons at other positions before, he didn't like being the guy who was moved despite his veteran status and coming off his good 2017 season. But once Rosario came aboard he realizes that the club is committed in that direction unless and until young Amed fails miserably so it's either this or go looking for a job elsewhere where most teams will also have younger and prettier SS mistresses.

Also picked up the option on Blevins. I think we also assumed that one was more of a given than Cabrera but this makes it official. Too many variables at this point -- Wilmer's status, Wright's health, TJ Rivera's recovery, Cecchini? Reynolds? -- to know what Cabrera's "regular" position will be or if he'll even have one. The bigger question is whether this is the end of [crossout:ojuxzesq]Rico[/crossout:ojuxzesq] Reyes?

There are kind of three choices for 1B this coming year: 1) stick with Smith, likely with a RH-hitting partner who may or may not already be with the team (Flores, one of the catchers, TJR) 2) get a 1-2 year gap filler who will either work in addition to or instead of Dom: Return of Duda? or other such 30+ FA or near end of contract guy 3) Go big via a FA or trade. This, as I've argued before, means dealing Smith to hopefully fill a hole elsewhere. The idea that they'll keep him to sit in the minors and/or bench for 3 or 4 or 5 years is ridiculous. Choice 3 is obviously where Hosmer comes in. He'll be one of the bigger names in FAgency this year by virtue of having just turned 28 y/o and picking the best year to have his best year. But he'll also be one of the dicier signs as will whoever signs him needs to know whether they'll get 'odd year' Hosmer or 'even year' Hosmer Odd year Hosmer: 2013: OPS/OPS+ = 801 / 118; 2015 = 822 / 122; 2017 = 882 / 132. Those were his 3rd, 5th, and 7th season in the majors. Even year Hosmer -- his 2nd, 4th, and 6th seasons -- yielded: 2012 = 663 / 81; 2014 = 716 / 99; 2016 = 761 / 102 Looked at another way, that's an Offensive WAR of 3.0, 3.6, and 4.8 in the odd years, but 0.3, 0.4, 1.6 in those even years. Those last set of numbers not being what you want to see in a 1st sacker. He's got three Gold Glove under his belt (and another nominee for this year) although defensive metrics like him less. I saw a projection of 6 years/$132 and then there's the Boras factor who thinks $200 million is more like it and of course he has the binders to prove it. Other FA suggestions include: Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison, Carlos Santana. And then there are various trade candidates.

There was a column* in one of the papers campaigning for exactly that, and I'm thinking to myself; Please make it happen!. * IIRC it wasn't one of the regular sports guys but rather more a social commentary column about the lack of minority managers and, yes, it got in the "been a winner all his life" line in.

Only the Yanx remain rudderless at this point. TEAM MANAGERCONTRACTMgr SINCEANGELSMike Scioscia2018Nov 1999ASTROSAJ Hinch2018Sept 2014ATHLETICS Bob Melvin2019June ‘11BLUE JAYS John Gibbons 2019 + 2020 OptionNov ‘12BRAVESBrian Snitker2018May ‘16BREWERS Craig Counsel 2020May ‘15CARDINALS--- Mike Matheny 2020Nov ‘11CUBS Joe Maddon 2019Oct ‘14DBACKSTorey Luvello 2019Nov ‘16DODGERS Dave Roberts 2018 + 2019 OptionNov ‘15GIANTSBruce Bochy 2019Oct '06INDIANS Terry Francona2020Oct ‘12MARINERS Scott Servais2018Oct ‘15MARLINSDon Mattingly 2019Nov ‘15METSMickey Callaway2020 + Option for 2021 —10/23/17 NATIONALSDave Martinez2020 + Option for 202110/29/17ORIOLES Buck Showalter—2018July ‘10PADRES Andy Green 2021Nov ‘15PHILLIESGabe Kapler202010/30/17PIRATES Clint Hurdle 2021Nov ‘10RANGERS Jeff Banister 2018 + 2019 OptionOct ‘14 RAYS Kevin Cash 2019Dec ‘14RED SOXAlex Cora2020 + Option for 202111/2/17REDS Bryan Price 2018Oct ‘13ROCKIES Bud Black 2019 + 2020 OptionNov ‘16 ROYALS Ned Yost 2018May ‘10TIGERSRon Gardenhire202010/19/17TWINSPaul Molitor2020Nov ‘14WHITE SOX Rick Renteria 2019Oct ‘16YANKEES [crossout]Joe Girardi[/crossout]2017Will Not Return in 2018

41Forever wrote: Wasn’t Amaro the Phils’ general manager? Yup. Until two years ago. And Kevin Long is off to join ... the Washington Nationals where he'll serve as their hitting coach. I think this means Murph will hit .600 next season.

You have to go down to Single-A to find most of the guys on the BA top-10 list too. Clearly this list in is based much more on potential than actual results. The good news is most of them are either very young, very inexperienced, or both. So there's room for growth. Andres Gimenez - (19 years old) Highest level = Low-A David Peterson - (22) 2017 draft pick, pitched 3.2 innings as a pro Justin Dunn - (22) 2016 draft pick, 31 games pitched between Brooklyn and PSL Pete Alonso - (22) 2016 draft pick (2nd round), PSL + 45 ABs at AA Thomas Szapucki - (21) 5th round pick 2015, pitched at Low-A Mark Vientos - (17 !! - 18 in December) 2017 pick (2nd round), Rookie ball Marcos Molina - (22) Split 2017 between A+ and AA Desmond Lindsay - (20) 2015 2nd round draft, Low A Chris Flexen - (22) Luis Guillorne - (23) 10th round in 2013, AA Bingo

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Mex17 wrote: (they are all in with Smith for better or for worse) I'm not at all convinced of that. Depends on what one means by "all in". If he's on the roster he's going to play at least most of the time, quite possibly with a RH-hitting platoon partner (maybe one of the catchers?). But it's not like they can't send him down if he doesn't hit, nor do I think they see him as a 'can't trade' guy in the same way they think of Rosario (to the extent that anyone is ever a Can't trade) The one thing I've said about Smith for 2018 is that if you're going to sign/trade-for a 1B with a multi-year deal then you need to deal him for help somewhere else. Stashing him in the minors or on the bench as a PH/defensive replacement for the next three years is a waste of a resource.

metirish wrote: Ugh, didn't even stay up for it , Dodgers just didn't look like doing much. The thing is, they were constantly on the verge of doing something but always came up 'one hit short'. 10 LOB and 1-for-13 w/RiSP A little bit better luck with a couple of line-drives in the early innings w/runners on that wound up right at infielders (one for a DP) and that's a completely different game. I blame Brian McCann for the game's length. Even Buck & Smoltz were making fun of his constant mound visits (sometimes several trips per batter, he must have learned it as a Yanqui) and I loved Smoltz's comment about how "this is going to go away" in reference to Manfred's threatened pace-of-play standards. And when a pitcher is saying that mound conferences are over the top it carries more weight. So, the old Sports Illustrated jinx ... Maybe not so much, huh? And thus begins 'THE VOID'. Opening Day is 17 weeks from today.

The thing about the Dodgers is that they've reached this post-season with little or no contributions from a bunch of their higher paid and/or longer tenured players: - Adrian Gonzalez; $21.5 million in 2017 & 2018 - Andre Ethier; $17.5 mil + $17.5 mil option/$2 mil buyout for 2018 - Scott Kazmir; in the 2nd year of a 3-year deal for $11 mil in 2016, then $18 mil in each of 2017 & 2018 (I bet most folks don't even remember that they signed him to a FA deal just last year) - Brandon McCarthy; in 3rd year of a 4 year deal: $10 mil in 2017 & $10 more next year - Hyun-Jin Ryu; 4th year of a 5 year deal: $7 mil in each 2017 & 2018 and yet are getting much greater contributions from the likes of Logan Forsythe, Austin Barnes (over Yasmani Grandal), and minimum wage or near minimum guys like Pederson, Seager, Kike Hernandez, Bellinger, Culberson, and especially Chris Taylor In answer to the Adrian Gonzalez question, I think he's toast and the Dodgers will need to eat the money no matter where he plays next year or even IF he plays next year. 3 HRs (in 231 ABs), a diminishing glove, a .287 OBA, and maybe the slowest non-catcher in the league just ain't gonna cut it.

From the Mets page on MLB.com comes this Top-30 List Not sure who specifically is responsible for this one and I tend to worry about it being more of an in-house production, but it does have the advantage of giving you some background/scouting report on each.

I remember when he came up with the Yanx not long after Cone did with the Mets and the papers making [u:xs65pwed]Coney Eiland[/u:xs65pwed] jokes.

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Also Joc Pederson didn't exactly endear himself to me with his dance around the bases. You wanna celebrate ... how 'bout at least waiting until you cross the plate? Ah, man, the kid hit a homer in the World Series (3 of em!) after being kicked to the minors and left off earlier playoff rosters. He's happyyyyyy! I can't believe I'm agreeing with Bryce Harper, but #MakeBaseballFunAgain. I have no problem with emotion but I thought that one went way over the top. I could have done without the full JohnnyManzell routine between 3rd & home for instance.

Edgy MD wrote: His off-season price is dropping! The sober way to look at it would be to treat it as just two bad outings and not let it affect your view of him if he's a guy you're interested in for the future. But we certainly saw the opposite effect back when Beltran was with Houston his first time around and jacked his price up with post-season heroics, and even Boston seemed to ignore their long running Sabermetric tendencies by buying into Pablo Sandoval's clutchness ability (and boy did they buy into it!!)

'In uniform" coaches might be the better description so I think the bullpen coach does count against the six. A team can have as many coaches as they want so if they want to employ separate Right Field, Center Field, and Left Field coaches then go for it, they just can't all be in the dugout during the game. But frankly, once we're into discussions of outfield coaches and assistant batting coaches I've already lost interest anyway.

Except that not all those guys were signed as FA closers --Chapman, Melancon, and Jansen are but all are also just in the first year of their deals. Most of the others are with their first team and even Kimbrel was a pre-FA trade. I'm also thinking more historically than just the guys closing now. Signing a closer as a FA means he already has at least six ML seasons under his belt and the primes of many closers just aren't that long so the team signing him doesn't always get their money's worth even if the team who had him prior to that enjoyed his best seasons. I remember Met fans demanding that we pay Frankie Rodriguez about double what they actually signed him for and even then that amount proved to be too much. Just one example but there are others. I just don't think buying closers on the open market is the way to go in most cases, and particularly not if you already have one (and could even argue they have 1-1/2)

I think they'll be able to afford a seventh coach if David Wright retires. And the insurance company keeps paying off anyway. Actually, teams are capped at six in-dugout coaches. So here's my advice as to how to coach the outfielders: 'Yo dudes, if the ball comes to you catch it!! ... and then throw it back.'

Wade Davis at 5 years x $19-20 per is not quite the same as Jansen @ 5 x $16, or Melancon @ 4 x $15.5 (plus Melancon is not the best example to bring up right now on responsible closer signings) Only Chapman @ 5 x $21.2 (plus an opt-out) really compares price-wise to what's being proposed. And while Davis, who came into his own after being moved to the bullpen in 2014, has a better track record than Familia since that time it's not that much better and, at age 32 vs Familia who just turned 28, are you willing to bet $80 million that he's going to continue to be marginally better over the next five seasons? I think Sandy probably feels he addressed shoring up the back end of the bullpen by trading for Ramos and will use the army of guys received from the deadline deals plus an assortment of returnees and an import or two to buttress the middle inning guys. IOW, I don't see them spending a huge chunk of their allowance on a FA closer, especially since that method seems to bust as often as it hits. oe: and as to this thread title: Only TWO choices?

True, the '25-and-Under' group that somebody (BP?) does is probably a better representation of a team's prospects than is simply counting just those who've yet to crack the rookie barriers. BA goes instead each year with their lineup projection for four years out, but that's pure guesswork and always winds up wildly inaccurate.

Also Joc Pederson didn't exactly endear himself to me with his dance around the bases. You wanna celebrate ... how 'bout at least waiting until you cross the plate?

Except that the system rankings are dealing with more than just the guys on the Top-50 or -100 lists, even though those are a big part of it obviously. But sometimes you can at least partially make up for in depth what you lack in top shelf prospects.

Rosario doesn't walk either.

Various places will do that but only after they examine each team individually and the progression has just started - so tune back maybe in February. I'd expect ours to be bottom third but that's just a guesstimate. Too many graduations and no one really stepping forward last year. When you've got a guys at #s 2 & 3 like Peterson and Dunn whose value is still based entirely on draft slot rather than actual pro track record it tells you the list is much more based on potential than anything.