Frayed Knot

Jeff Wilpon sadly rationalized, "We weren't old enough to have enough history. But now we are and, in Jay, who's been with us so long and has seen so many players come through the organization and maintained a rapport with them, he was the absolute right guy for this job." Jeff Wilpon sadly rationalized, "We didn't realize that there were Mets fans who cared about the history of the team prior to our purchase of them. But now it's been drummed into us, plus we had to do something with Jay in order to keep him from the pr messes we keep making and he's been with us so long even though not long enough to see the '60s guys either but at least he's the absolute right guy with a decent shot at knowing their names at least.

In a more recent vein, Keith Law wrote a 2017 book with the ungainly title of: [u:3916k5ll]SMART BASEBALL -- The Story Behind the Old Stats that are Ruining the Game, the New Ones that are Running it, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball[/u:3916k5ll] Law (originally from Smithtown btw) is well known in the Saber world working both within the sport itself -- for the Blue Jays under JP Riccardi (2002-06) -- and outside of it looking in as a writer -- Baseball Prospectus and currently ESPN It's been on my list of 'maybe I'll get around to that some day' books, but I've yet to actually do so so I can't give a thumbs up or down recommendation here.

The deadline for finalizing the 40-man roster ahead of next month's Rule 5 draft is tonight (8 PM EST) so the timing is shirley not a coincidence.

Great fielder too, even if his style was a bit unorthodox at times. I also remember when his agent, Scott Boras naturally, claimed to have "suddenly discovered" several years into his career that Beltre was a year younger than previously advertised meaning that he was too young when first signed to a pro contract making that contract illegal and therefore should immediately be declared a FA. It didn't work.

Bryant's coming out of an off (and injured) season, is several years older than Bregman and is one year closer to FA-gency. Plus I think that maybe there's a sense that pitchers and strategists may be starting to catch up to Bryant's kind of "four fly balls per game" type of hitting and that Bregman's more contact/full field style [85 K in 700+ PA in 2018 vs 107/450 for KB] is the better one to bet on going forward.

Anthony Rizzo was a guy in his 3rd org by age 22 and other top players reach the ML after already being dealt once or more. Plus Sheffield wasn't exactly dumped, he's been a main cog in deals for two All-Star pitchers: Andrew Miller and now James Paxton. So while we'll have to wait and see how his career goes, Seattle isn't getting screwed just on that basis alone.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Maybe he'll get caught slathering pine tar on his neck like the last alleged stud pitcher they acquired from Seattle He's a Canadian so it'll probably be Maple sap instead.

Mex17 wrote: I don't see why Bregman would not be an option if Correa and Springer are (and if Bryant also is from the Cubs side). Bregman is 1-1/2 years younger than Noah, comes with an extra year of team control (4 vs 3) and already has a Top-5 MVP season under his belt at age 24 He out-OPS'd Correa by 200 points and Springer by 150 this past year and out-WAR'd both by a lot [6.9 vs 1.7 vs 2.7] Bottom line is that I suspect Houston would want more than Syndergaard in a deal (since we're just making up trades here anyway) and that, given his age, accomplishments, and potential future, Bregman could be as close to an untouchable as there is in the game right now.

Yanx deal w/Seattle for LHP James Paxton giving up touted LHP prospect Justus Sheffield plus two others. Paxton, 30 earlier this month, can be a free agent after two more seasons.

And of course the Nats have had Suzuki in the past so they pretty much know what they're in for. Suzuki's been a decent half-time catcher: better than a typical backup but not quite what you'd want in a starter. Yeah, he had a couple of 500+ AB seasons in his career but that was back when he was in his mid-20's and he just turned 35 a few weeks ago.

Maybe the closest parallel I can come up with was the Pirates trading Gerrit Cole to Houston 11 months ago. - The 2017 Pirates (74 wins) and the 2018 Mets (77) were coming off similar seasons. Pirates improved by 7 games this past year minus their ace pitcher - Syndergaard currently has one extra year of club control (three) as compared to Cole at the time he was dealt (two) - Cole had 127 ML starts to his name when dealt with 59 Wins, 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP; Syndergaard currently sitting at 86 / 37 / 3.03 / 1.21 The Pirates received four players in the deal: Jason Martin, OF, 21 y/o (at the time of the trade) -- a former 8th round draft pick who at the time was a A+/AA player w/Houston. Played well this year in a half season of AA [913 OPS] not so much after AAA promotion [589] Michael Feliz, RHP -- 24 y/o Dominican reliever with two (now three) seasons of ML ball under his belt, none particularly successful Colin Moran, 3B, 24 -- Former 6th overall draft pick by the Marlins, was a back half of the top-100 type of prospect in '17 with a handful of ML ABs. 2018 was his first full year of ML ball where he put up a so-so .277/.340/.407 Joe Musgrave, RHP, 24 -- Another former 1st round pick (46th overall). Mix of starting and relief in two partial seasons w/HOU. 19 starts; 4.06 ERA; 1.18 WHIP for Pitt in '18

Centerfield wrote: “Better for his family” is code for “lots more money” right? He also works football on the west coast so it also could mean something which entails a lot less coast to coast travel.

The NY Post's story is a bit more detailed and makes it seem more Lewin's decision than not. “Earlier this week, I removed myself from consideration as part of the Mets’ radio team,” Lewin told The Post. “Instead I will be accepting an offer away from New York, with details coming as soon as the contracts get signed.” He also added that this new post would be 'better for his family'

Centerfield wrote: If he's better than his father, we are looking at 3 grand slams in one inning. Off the same pitcher!

If Tatis is really one of the top prospects in baseball (and IIRC Keith Law had him #1 at some point recently), and you're getting Tatis plus? That feels like a trade you really have to consider. #2 overall in MLB's (Jonathan Mayo & Jim Callis) mid-season 2018 update, behind only Vladdy Junior Their write-up: [Tatis] made an immediate impact in his pro debut, finishing the season as a 17-year-old in the Class A Short-Season Northwest League, and then emerged as a top-flight prospect in 2017 as he became the first 18-year-old in Midwest League history to post at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Perhaps even more impressive was how Tatis Jr. handled himself after making the jump directly to Double-A San Antonio in August, and he continued to draw raves in his return to level in 2018 before undergoing season-ending surgery for a fractured thumb in late July. Tatis Jr. has all the ingredients to become an offensive force in the Majors, as his bat speed, leveraged swing and overall capacity to make adjustments all portend a future plus hitter with plus power. He proved vulnerable to spin and sequencing early in the year but tightened his approach as the season progressed en route to pacing the Midwest League with 75 walks. Many evaluators believe Tatis Jr. is merely scraping the surface of his offensive potential, as he still has considerable room to grow into his tall and athletic frame. That larger frame doesn't currently impede Tatis Jr.'s abilities at shortstop, where he makes highlight-reel plays on a daily basis thanks to his athleticism, range and rocket arm, though further physical development could ultimately force him to third base. Even if that's case, Tatis Jr.'s bat gives him the ceiling of a perennial All-Star, possibly even an MVP candidate in his prime.

Just by coinkydink, Baseball Prospectus came out with their Padres prospect list today!! - although it's just a raw list and the analysis is hidden behind their pay wall. - Tatis is #1 and he'll be Top-10 across the whole sport when the full lists come out later this winter. - Quantrill isn't mentioned even though he was on some top-50 lists last year, was a #8 overall draft pick in 2016, should be relatively polished coming out of Stanford and as the son of a ML'er. Not sure if something set him back this year or what. - Gore was the #3 overall pick but a year later and out of HS. Sounds like he'd maybe be a higher ceiling but also younger and a considerably less ready option as compared to Quantrill - The other name I've heard before in potential trade talks involving the Pads is the catcher Francisco Mejia. Just turned 23, has had cups of java in ML w/both Cleveland & SD, was dealt mid-season to SD in the deal bringing the seriously, I just used a racist word when I really meant "Guardians" reliever Brad Hand

Centerfield wrote: Is that true? 3.5 sounds much too high. As an average that's real low. And then you have to remember that 'Average' can be a misleading term. In his first four starts of the season, for instance, the Mets score 6, 8, 8, 6. And then they also later won a JdG start 12-2 Put another way, in his 32 starts they scored 3 or fewer 21 times. 0 runs scored = 3 times 1 = 6 2 = 3 3 = 9 In the other 11 games he twice got 4 runs of support. He also got 5 runs & 6 runs twice each. And then 8 runs four times and then the 12 run game already mentioned. So while the mean might be 3.49, the mode and the median is 3.0 in a year where the average runs scored per/game-per/team was 4.45

PLAYER1st2nd3rdPointsBetts2820410Trout1242265Jose Ramirez0110208JD Martinez128198Bregman014192Lindor———169Chapman———141Khris Davis———41Snell———38Verlander———26 And, because by rule he can never be completely shut out, Derek Jeter also received 2018 MVP points from some back of the ballot votes. For Trout, that's now 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 4th, and 2nd in his seven ML seasons. In the year he finished 4th he led the league in OPS

PLAYER1st2nd3rdPointsYelich2910415Baez0194250Arenado038203Freeman008174deGrom171174Goldschmidt———115Cain———109Story———108Carpenter———105Scherzer———59

And the NL MVP goes to Christian Yelich Just like deGrom, Yelich got 29 of the 30 1st place votes. In this case the lone non-Yelich vote going to ... Jacob deGrom!!!

And, btw, if you're going to get all huffy over CY votes (or MVP or whatever) no response you're going to have is going to be as good as the one Kate Upton had over the 2016 AL CY vote when Justin Verlander finished 2nd due to several writers leaving him out of their top 5 entirely which cost him enough points to drop him off the lead despite his getting almost as many 1st place votes as all the others combined. "Hey BBWAA", the then-girlfriend/now wife tweeted afterward, "I thought I was the only one who got to fuck Justin Verlander" Now THAT'S how you protest a vote!

Centerfield wrote: Does anyone have the run support numbers? I'm sure there was some difference between Jake and the other pitchers, but it's not like the team hit like the Red Sox in the other games. 23rd ranked offense isn't going to provide much run support all the way around. Don't have them handy but, yeah, they were much worse when JdG pitched. Bad even by NYM 2018 standards and bad by historical standards.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: https://nypost.com/2018/11/15/writer-who-didnt-vote-for-degrom-hangs-up-on-wfan-host/amp/ Lone Scherzer first place voter hangs up on Steve Somers during radio interview. I would have hung up on him too. Cuz unless this guy was informed ahead of time that the line of "tough" questioning was all to set up jokes, if someone started an interview with "how can you look at yourself in the mirror”, and, ”you’re only looking for 15 minutes of fame and attention”, all over a single awards vote, he deserves to be hung up on. Maybe Somers thinks, after, what, 30 years now on FAN?, that he and his brand of schtick are famous from coast to coast and to all the ships at sea. But I'm guessing he's probably not.

I hereby demand the "badass start" be made an official stat. Yup! I've long said that those who complain about the 'Quality Start'* merely have to adjust their criteria to fit the level they want. Quality Start: 6 or more innings, 3 or fewer runs Super Quality Start: 7 or more innings, 2 or fewer runs BADASS Start: 8 or more innings, 1 or fewer runs * overdone complaints IMO as the complainers almost always compute it as if the pitcher pitches the bare minimum while also allowing the maximum runs each and every time ... aka: But he'd have a 4.50 ERA!!! Yeah, and a .250 hitter can have a 100 game hitting streak too, but it's not bloody likely! Also, a QS occurs less often than not and the team that gets one wins most of those games. So while a single QS doesn't really tell you much over the long haul it's better to have more of them, just like most stats.

Wait, so we're supposed to say, and demand that others do as well, that the Mets did hit for deGrom?!? They didn't, that's a fact. It doesn't mean they didn't hit because it was him. But it was almost comical how, every fifth day, JdG is out there pitching a gem and the other eight guys have a collective total of one hit and one walk thru six innings. And that the pattern repeated itself Every. Freakin'. Time.