Frayed Knot

=MFS62 post_id=157060 time=1717010195 user_id=60] One who surprised me one was Bader. I would have guessed, based on the number of key runs he's driven in, that his number would have been higher.

Edgy MD wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: We did a defense correctly!!!! Well, we got there in the end, but I'm not sure it was exactly textbook. Well, the throw was decent, it was correctly cut off, they ran at the runner who was in no man's land, and then, when the more important runner strayed, they threw behind him and got him. Lacked some style points maybe but otherwise sound and needed just two infield throws to pull it off.

We did a defense correctly!!!!

Oh look, getting hurt for a run IMMEDIATELY after an error.

Last 19 innings (since Lindor's 3rd inning HR in Game 1): no runs, 8 hits, all singles

Or, boiled down to a simple phrase: it's inept hitting whether big, small, or somewhere in between. And here's more of it. RE24 sounds like campaign slogan shorthand, like maybe if my brother in law were running for President this year. His initials are R.E. and he'd make a much better President than either of the two currently stumbling towards that job ... but I digress. RE24 is actually a Sabermetric term which measures a hitter's ability to produce runs based on the 24 runner/out situations* in which he comes to bat. Smith may have more RBI than Perez and also more 'clutch hits' on his hi-light reel but if he -- due to his usual spot in the lineup, or the prowess of the hitters ahead of him, or via just plain luck -- comes to the plate with a lot more traffic on the bases as compared to Perez then maybe he's actually pulling less than his share of the load rather than more. So this works similar to the above mini-analysis: how many runs Should Lindor be creating given the totality and the specifics of all his ABs. A positive number means a hitter is driving in more than what should be expected given the specifics of his ABs. A negative number represents fewer runs plated than expected. Zero is average, that you have driven in exactly what you should be expected to drive in based on the sum of all your situational runner/out ABs. So without further ado. Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2024 New York Mets: B. NIMMO 12.9 DJ STEWART 3.7 M. VIENTOS 2.0 S. MARTE -1.0 P. ALONSO -1.4 F. ALVAREZ -1.8 JD MARTINEZ -2.4 T. TAYLOR -4.4 T. NIDO -5.1 B. BATY -6.0 H. BADER -6.1 F. LINDOR -6.9 O. NARVAEZ -7.5 J. McNEAL -8.4 As you can see, only Nimmo, Stewart, and Vientos are in the black and of course only Nimmo is a sizable sample size. Stewart has about half Nimmo's plate appearances and Vientos a lot fewer than that. So what this basically confirms it what I've been muttering on IGTs all season: that we suck with runners on. Now, like the extra inning thing, this is as much a case of being below average hitters as a whole as it is about 'clutchitude'. When you're notching 4 - 6 hits a night it's not like you're going hog-wild with the bases empty either. And bases empty stats are one of the 24 runners/outs situations so are included in the numbers shown. The composite of that chart is 32.4 fewer runs created than what would be expected by average-ness across all ABs, and it's actually a bit lower than that as I left off a few of the short-timers just for brevity sake but they weren't helping matters either. Surprises? Not a lot. As Keith & Gary mentioned often this year, it's not often when your leadoff hitter, as Nimmo was for much of the games, leads the team in RBI, but hitting well with runners on certainly helps create that oddity. Maybe Bader being so low? But that's the fallacy of remembering his handful of game tying or winning hits at the expense of a whole lotta ABs of less obvious importance but still ones where failure to drive in ducks on the pond maybe didn't cut a deficit earlier or failed to pad a lead that was later lost. * These are the eight possible runner scenarios: bases empty, runner only on 1st, only 2nd, only 3rd, 1st & 2nd, 1st & 3rd, 2nd & 3rd, loaded, and each of those with 0 outs, 1 out, or 2 outs. Since each of those situations has a specific potential you can measure how each batter is reaching or not reaching that expected potential

=Centerfield post_id=157036 time=1716998450 user_id=65] Great analysis. I felt like it was bad, but didn't realize it was this bad.

Just to beat this one into the ground a little bit more. Given the 'Manfred Man' runner situation [runner on 2nd, no one out] a typical team should score at least one run about 60% of the time (61.4% per 2010-2015 stats). And the average number of runs scored starting with the gimmick rule is 1.1 RS/inning. So given 14 extra innings a typical team will score in eight or nine of them [14 x .614 = 8.6]. Mets = 4, Opposition = 10 And the average number of runs score given 14 tries is between 15 and 16 [14 x 1.1 = 15.4]. Mets = 8, Opposition = 23 iow the Mets are producing extra innings runs this year about half as often as they should be and about half as many while giving a lot more than expected.

“You see he's working a series, you know he's gonna f–k you once, and he's probably gonna f–k you a few more times after that,” ... “You just pray to God that the f–king doesn't come in the ninth inning and cost you a ballgame.” -- anonymous ML manager to NY Post's Mike Vaccaro about ... well, you know who.

Edgy MD wrote: I kinda thought this was done already. At first they declared that the NNL & NAL were on a par with the AL & NL, separate but equal so to speak. What they're saying now is that they're no longer separate, even though they clearly were.

So with one inning to go, NYM pitchers held Dodger bats to 5 runs over 17 regulation innings ... and we're going to lose a DH anyway.

Why play something interesting over the PA between innings when you can limit the choices to amongst the most overplayed songs of the 20th and 21st Centuries such as PIANO MAN or DANCING QUEEN.

Nothing coming off NYM bats has even the hint of a hit here in Game 2, including the two hits.

Seven Ks (already a career high for the LAD pitcher) and two bloop singles thru 5 innings. Overall six hits in 15 innings, five of them singles.

So we've now played 10 extra inning games this season with 14 total innings played under the clown car rules [six 10 inning games and four 11 inning games] Overall record: 3 - 7 Runs scored in extras: 8 RS / 23 RA Innings with at least one run scored: Mets = 4 At least one scored by the opposition = 10 So think about this for a minute: even when given a gift runner in scoring position with no outs the Mets have only scored in 4-of-14 opportunities (28.5%) while being blanked in ten. The opponents, meanwhile, are the exact opposite: four half innings in which they didn't score and ten where they did. Mets have also given up five runs in an extra inning twice and three runs twice so in addition to all the one and two runs games they've played (17 one run games), there are four other games that don't fit into those categories even though those games were tied at the end of regulation but they then went on to lose by three or more. I don't know what the overall league averages are but that 10-of-14 scoreless frames and 8 total runs in 14 tries has to rank well into the pathetic range and you'd almost have to reach that level simply by accident so that's gotta be the floor this far into the season.

The outs in the 9th & 10th innings, all with one or more runners on: K, PO, PO, K, FO, K iow, ONE ball out of the infield, and not in a situation where it did us any good. Oh yeah, FOUR hits thru 10 innings, three of them singles.

Frayed Knot wrote: Hate these fucking clown car rules! Especially since, like most situations with runners on, it reduces our run production.

If nothing else we're going to be sending the Ohtani groupies home disappointed.

Hate these fucking clown car rules!

Five pitches so far this inning: 1B, K, K, K, 1B

Give the NYM infield four tries and they'll get it right eventually.

Looks like it's Otto's turn in the bullpen failure rotation.

Dodgers have rolled three singles right through that same spot today: Freeman, Hayward, and now Teoscar.

Red Beards Rule!!

Frayed Knot wrote: They hit IF grounders in [CROSSOUT]two[/CROSSOUT] three GiDP situations and NYM turn none. ([CROSSOUT]1[/CROSSOUT] 2 outs)