Frayed Knot

There have been correlation studies done with steals & runs scored in the past with samples a lot larger than just one year. Essentially they come out showing the relationship to be positive although only somewhat, much closer to random than causal.

So is there anyone but LaRussa who would - up 8-1 / 2 outs in the 7th / runner on 1st / non-HR threat up to PH (Burroughs) - go to a LOOGY in that spot? Well Tony did, Bochy responded with a righty, and the Cards got the out (K) anyway -- so I guess he can point to the fact that he got Bochy to burn an extra guy. The NYTimes had a piece on LOOGYs this past Sunday. Not surpringly, LaGenius leads the planet in their use.

Maybe Juan was just the token minority consideration: Leyland to manage Tigers http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2180682

Carpenter being pulled in the 7th for an unspecified reason. Only 3 hits & 3 walks up to this point (helped out by 3 DPs).

Grand Salami for Regie Sanders pretty much puts this one on ice. Peavy had been in more bad luck - dinkers, dunkers and plays not made - than bad pitching before this point. This one however is all on him as he gets an early shower. 8-0 Cards in the 5th.

There's two kinds of "don't cares". One is the one where you have no specific rooting interest in a club. The other is the one where fans profess not to care about the post-season entirely because their team is no longer in it -- I've never understood that sort of thinking from supposed baseball fans. I have only one specific rooting interest in this post-season. Aside from that I'll just watch as a fan although I usually pull for the NL team in the end.

]Braves shortstop Rafael Furcal, a free agent after the postseason, has purportedly let it be known he would be willing to play second base in Flushing. I don't believe that for a second.

]Already I am seeing on the Manny/Soriano talk on internet boards, and I'm seeing proposals like Trax and Heilman for blank. Which essentially means less than nothing. Internet fans lusting after every player who's not here is a predictable knee-jerk response, even more than the one where they scheme to get rid of every player who is. The fun part is listening to them drool after Manny or Soriano as the next sentence demands a team built around pitching and defense and "kids".

Q: steve from new york asks:how high of a ceiling does lastings milledge have and do you think petit can be a #2 starter in the bigs A: Alan Matthews: Milledge could be an occasional all-star as a solid everyday major league center fielder. Petit was the source of much deliberation during calls to scouts and managers who worked in the Eastern League this year. His stuff is all average, but it all plays up because of his remarkable control and pitchability. This kid really has an idea of how to pitch, adding and subtracting off all of his pitches, and his fastball has a rising action that gave hitters fits. History indicates major league hitters punish fringy stuff, regardless of feel for that stuff, but I bet Petit develops into at least a reliable back-of-the-rotation starter, though his ceiling might be what you suggested, Steve. Q: J.P. from Springfield, IL asks:How close was Mike Jacobs? A: Alan Matthews: Very. He was knocking on the door at the 21-25 range. Jacobs ' lack of ability as a catcher is what might have made the difference. If he's relegated to first base, he's going to have to hit a ton to play every day, and there are doubts he can keep up the clip he was on late in the year in New York. He has a 40 arm [below average], can receive but is stiff behind the plate. He has mostly a pull approach but can drive balls to the opposite field, as well. He has abv avg raw power and could possibly hit 30 home runs each season at the very best scenario. Q: Ravecc from New Jersey asks:Why no love for Brian Bannister? I know he’s 24, but a 2.56 era and a 94/27 KBB ratio shouldn’t be ignored. A: Alan Matthews: Bannister put up nice numbers and was considered for the list, though ultimately his stuff profiles at the back end of a rotation.

]6. any "veteran" reliever whose only "advantage" over our kids is that they've played alot (and proven that they shouldn't play much more) You mean like Hernandez was coming into this year? Thing about these "veterens" - Anderson, Robo, Tony Clark 2 years back, etc. - is that as long as you don't go committing yourself to locked-in contracts [stanton, Franco, etc.] then they're easily disposable if/when they don't perform (DeJean, Aybar). Robo was no more of a lock coming into the season then any one of a host of other pickups that are on every roster everywhere.

]When did the original Scheafer POTG run? Any details? Well it certainly didn't start until after the changeover from Rheingold as the main suds sponsor. A check through old yearbooks/scorecards might help here.

Tim McCarver paranoia is one amazing phenomenon. I happen to like the guy although I realize that puts me in an ever-shrinking minority. Of course the reason most Met fans don't like him is that they feel he's too pro-Yankee. Then I'm talking baseball with some guys last week when his name came up and several of the MFY fans present immediately jumped in with; "that fuckin' anti-Yanqui bastard!!"

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/05league20s/eas.htmlAA Eastern League rankings out: Milledge #2, Petit #11On-line Q&A at 2PM today.

]But I guess there was a 0% chance he would be invited back after that happened last year anyway, since he wasn't invited to the 2004 WS broadcast. The WS is a different deal that the network doesn't think it has to "spice up" with guest commentators. I think Leiter would be asked back in a minute for the prelim rounds if he were available.

Seo's been in this country for 5 years or so at this point and his English is rumored to be quite good. Not sure if the language barrier has anything to do with his reported "stubborness". What remains to be seen is whether or not the "new JWS" - the one with cutters and curves - is the real deal or if it was only the newness of it all that made him effective and whether the league may catch up to him again the second time around. MLB rules apply to Asian players as well, the only differences are where a club writes something specifically into the contract, something both NY teams did with the two Matsuis. In each case (AFAIK) the club agreed NOT to offer arbitration after year 3 (both signed 3 year deals) thus allowing the player to either return to Japan or, in effect, become a free agent over here if no extension is agreed upon. (NYY will have to strike a new deal with Hidecki this winter if they want to keep him). Ichiro had no such guarantees and therefore had no bargaining leverage when his initial contract ran out even though by then he was a 30-ish established ML star with a dozen or so total years of playing under his belt. I suspect the Mets control Ishii's rights if they want them.

I have only one rooting interest in the post-season. The rest I'm just hoping for good games ... except to the extent where I believe that one team has a better chance of knocking off you-know-who if necc further down the line. I'm not so sure the ChiSox can do that.

No exciting ties (actually there was a 3-way tie in the AL - Angels Sawx & Yanx - but all were in anyway so things just got settled w/tie-breakers) so no Monday baseball. Angels won 9 of their last 10 to grab the #2 seed Cleveland lost 6 of their last 7 - 5 by one run - to miss the playoffs. Padres got their 82nd win. Cards only ML team to win 100 (did it today). No one else in the NL won more than 90 !! But the biggest kick I got today was when I was in the car and briefly (maybe 3 minutes) tuned to the Yanqui game on the radio. This was after the thing was pretty much settled (7-0 or so) so all that was left for Johnny & Suzyn to do was cry about what a "disgrace" it was for Buck to pull his regulars starting about the 3rd or 4th inning against the Angels. 'Oh the shame of it all!' Sounds like a few somebodies didn't want to get on a cross-country flight right after the game - and miss some kind of scheduled pep rally thingie tomorrow. So the matchups are: NYY @ ANA BOSox @ CHISox PADRES @ StL ASTROS @ BRAVES I've only checked as far as the Tuesday schedule: 1:00 - Pads v Cards (suxx for SD fans, a game at 11AM local time!!) 4:00 - BoSox v ChiSox 8:00 - Yanx v Angels (prime time, always prime time)

So am I the only one who kept imagining Mike looking out over the crowd thinking; 'OK, which of you fuckers were the ones booing me in '98 because I was only hitting .320?'

NL WC is the same situation as the AL with the Astros playing the part of Boston and Phils starring as Cleveland. Astros clinch with a win or a Phillie loss and are guaranteed of at least living until a Monday game if they lose & Phils win. Houston sends Oswalt against Maddux, Phils using Leiber in Washington against carrasco. In Boston it's Schilling vs J. Wright, in Cleveland Elarton vs McCarthy. The only other update is that I didn't realize that the Yanx have NOT YET clinched home field over the Angels. A win today by LAA and a MFY loss means that the Agels hold the home field if/when those two meet. And the Mets have clinched at least a tie for 3rd, and will have sole possession w/a win and/or a Marlin loss to the Braves.

Seo - 4.1 Wright - 2.7 Padilla - 1.2 R. Hernandez - 1.0 Reyes - 0.25 Floyd - 0.25 Offerman - 0.25 M. Anderson - 0.25

Rotblatt wrote: I might even go so far as to call today's game "meaningful." I'd say crucial!!!!

So the Yanx clinch the division and we're down to 4 possible scenarios: Boston gets in anyway under 3 of them, and stays alive for a play-in game at home on Monday under the other. Sunday's games: 1) Boston Wins / Cleveland Wins = Boston is WC, Indians go home 2) Boston Wins / Cleveland Loses = Boston is WC, Indians go home 3) Boston Loses / Cleveland Loses = Boston is WC, Indians go home 4) Boston Loses / Cleveland Wins = 1 Game Playoff for WC in Boston on Monday If Boston is WC then Round 1 is: Sox Rouge vs Sox Blanc -- & -- Yanks vs Angels (NYY home advantage) If Cleveland is WC then it's: Indians vs MFY in round 1 -- & -- Angels vs ChiSox (Chicago home ad)

1 more win also guarantees us no worse than 3rd place. - that we won't finish double-digits out of 1st - that we won't finish last (1 game ahead of both Fla & Wash) Plus the personal stats stuff, plus 83 wins w/a chance of 84 sounds better than maybe losing 80, plus ending on a good note, ... There's lots to play for!!!!

According to Tim McCarver - who played the position from '59 thru '81 and has been following closely ever since - the best defensive catcher he ever saw was .... Jerry Grote

]The White Sox have an excellent bullpen. One great arm after another. And they've recently thrown this Bobby Jenks guy into the mix. He became a hot-shot in the Angels org of few years back by throwing 100 mph - only he he couldn't control it. He also came from some real white-trash, trailer-park background and had trouble controlling himself on more than a few cases (and especially after he polished off a few cases). Seems like Ozzie's now using him as the #1 closer. And as I type this Cleveland is getting to the ChiSox pen and has closed to 4-3 The thing is, if the Indians are going to get swept away here the whole NYY/BOS series is essentially going to mean nothing after all the hype.