Frayed Knot

When runners on on, they hit HRs, we hit in DPs. Nuff said.

The charge about them stacking the Brooklyn squad comes from the fact that the Wilpons own that team (they don't own any of the full-season NYM affiliates - most teams don't) and so they stuck guys there who maybe should or could have been placed higher so as to protect their investment. It's probably true, although tough to prove. In this case I don't think they intentionally stacked St Lucie so much as there are a bunch of guys there just off to great starts. Look at Familia's start last year for instance and there was no way to expect what he's doing now. Then throw in the hot start from #1 pick Harvey who's probably just there until the upstate weather warms up and you've got a team on a roll.

Jeurys Familia makes BA's 'Hot List' again this week (#10) Why He's Here: 1-0, 0.00, 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 8 SO The Scoop: Familia continued his stellar start to 2011 with seven shutout innings Saturday against Jupiter. He has allowed just two runs and nine hits in 25 2/3 innings this season, a stark contrast to his season last year at St. Lucie when he went 6-9, 5.58. Familia is a large part of the reason St. Lucie is playing so well this year and has a Florida State League-leading 2.84 ERA. Like the rest of the top prospects on that team, Familia probably won't spend too much longer in St. Lucie. He appears to be in line for a promotion to Double-A Binghamton once the weather warms up in New York state.

I think you guys are blowing this story out of proportion. That was nothing more than him making nice during a chat with the Burkhardt-level chick. Not that somebody else won't do it if we don't, but that doesn't mean the front office has to over-react too. Harris's bat (or lack thereof) is going to make him expendable at some point along the lines. But I want to see Fartinez get at least three consecutive months where he's hitting and not being placed on a stretcher and I'd prefer not to see Nieuwenhuis up here just to sit on the bench. If Pridie out-plays him between now and when Angel comes back then that's a different story.

First of all, yeah I know April doesn't have a 31st; whaddya think I'm stupid? (don't answer that) - just trying to see who was paying attention. OK, we all know the Phillies well enough at this point: 1st place in the East, 5.5 games ahead of us; 1/2 game behind Colorado for the best record in the NL, lots of convicted felons in their fan base - and we all know that everyone who doesn't live near Philadelphia hates Philadelphia. The people who live near to the city of course hate it even more. What the team is surviving on these days is pitching much more so than hitting as they're allowing runs at a rate below everyone save for Atlanta. Meanwhile, their once-vaunted offense is barely average at this point, which considering that park they play in kinda means they're starting to suck. They're just above league average (and just below us) in Runs Scored while actually slightly below average in OBA & SlgA. Less Utley and more candles on the birthday cakes are the likely cause of that. From the first series (also in Philly) - aka games 4, 5 & 6 of your NYM season: Game 1 - Mets 7 Phils 1 Hamels didn�t survive the 3rd; Young went 5+; we didn�t hit their pen much but ours was good too. At that point we were 3-1. We had peaked ... but alas too soon. And isn't that always the case (am I right ladies?) Game 2 - Phils 10 - Mets 7 Pelfrey faced 16 batters and retired 6 of them. This was the game where we got into a ridiculous 7-0 hole by the 3rd, only to tie it up by the 5th (off Blanton) and then have Blaine Boyer give it back. So then we gave Blaine Boyer back. Game 3 -- Phils 11 - Mets 0 Niese sucked & Halladay cruised. The good news is that it was all over in 2:24 This series: Friday 7:05 - Pelfrey v Vance Worley Worley - no known relation to Jo Ann - is a 23 y/o RHer just called up for this game to replace Joe �15 days with an elbow injury� Blanton, and by saying 'elbow injury' I think they simply mis-spelled 'eating disorder'. Worley appeared in 5 ML games last season (2 starts) including a scoreless inning of relief against the Mets during a who-cares game in late September. If we smack him around enough maybe it'll be the end of his career and he'll wind up trading lines with Henry Gibson on the joke wall. Saturday 1:10 - Niese v Halladay - FOX Network. No word on whether Joe Buck will do the game of if he's going to spend the weekend going over the draft results so he can actually get the pronunciations of all the players correct when football resumes in 9 months or so. We all know what Halladay (3-1; 2.41; 1.018 WHiP) is about - usually real good as he has been in 4 of his 5 starts so far this season. Did get smacked around by the Brew Crew a bit. Sunday 8:10 - Young v Lee - ESPN Cliff Lee (2-2; 4.18; WHiP) has been less the steady performer the Phils thought they were getting and more erratic instead. IOW, think less Geddy Lee and more Robert E. and we all know how Bobby's career ended. Has one CG shut-out but has given up at least 3 runs in each of his other four outings. The Mets have faced Lee only once in his career. It was during his first stint with the Phils and he gave up no earned runs in a 6-2 Phils win in August 2009 when Bobby Parnell was the opposing starter. Lineup - again, not a lot of surprises here: 1B - Ryan Howard -- You know him, he's kind of tough to miss. Big dude, widest nose in MLB. Hitting well so far this season -- .293/.352/.522; 4 HRs 2B - Mostly former NYM Wilson Valdez these days in Chase Utley�s absence -- Hitting .234/.279/.281 are the kind of stats that makes Rey Ordonez say; "Hey dude, you know you really kind of suck" SS - Jimmy Rollins -- Hit his 1st HR yesterday. Joins Derek Jeter in the �SS who shouldn�t be leading off anymore but how do their managers tell them that� club. .271/.346/.354 3B - Placido Polanco -- What has this now 35 y/o guy been drinking? (.389/.448/.516). The video game version of Placido Polanco doesn't hit this well even on the easiest setting! LF - Usually Raul Ibanez but he�s been so bad this season (.169/.250/.229) that we�re more likely to see the likes of Ben Francisco or John Mayberry Jr. As expected, that Ibanez contract looked good in the beginning but everyone knew it was going to suck in the end. CF - Shane Victorino -- Gots his slugging shoes on this month (.289/.343/.505) as 11 of his 28 hits are for extra bases RF - whichever of Mayberry/Francisco doesn�t play LF, or maybe Ross Gload. Rookie prospect Domonic Brown is just starting rehab and won�t be back this weekend. C - Carlos Ruiz is "day to day" (aren't we all?) with back stiffness, so we may see more of Brian Schneider than Philly fans will be comfortable with. Schneider is 2-for-23 so far this season, both hits are HRs (sounds like he should be on the Yanx). The Pen: Closer Brad Lidge is hurt and closer Part Deux Jose Contreras is too, so that job likely falls to Ryan Madson (10 games, 0.90 ERA) Also pitching well is the aptly named Antonio Bastardo (10 games, 0.87 ERA) Filling out the staff is Kyle Kendrick (long man), David Herndon (who?), Michael Stutes (who?) and Danys Baez (fat!). Long-time lefty JC Romero is on the fritz so something named Mike Zagurski looks like their current go-to guy. These guys just lost 2 of 3 to the D'Backs so it can be done. A nice series here keeps the good vibes going.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Why can't options be based on statistcs? If not stats, then what? Because of the idea that a player would then play strictly for his stats and not for the team; ex: trying to hit HRs in situations that didn't call for it only because he's got a contract bonus that'll pay him if he does.

What's good about the "slash" stats is not only do each of them individually tell you something but the relationship between the various numbers does also. MLB as a whole hit .252/.320/.392 last season. That's down a bit from the high-flying years of the late '90s and early 21st century but still higher than what those who grew up watching in the '60s & 70s saw. But what they also show is that a player who has 68 points of difference between his BA & OBA walks about the average amount of time as compared to everyone else. The only real exceptions that can skew that number are if someone gets a ton of intentional walks due to his surrounding lineup or gets plunked a lot as those would expand his 'walk rate' but at the same time exaggerate how good his "batting eye" is. The difference between the BA & Slg is often called 'Isolated Power' (IsoP) and it's really a better number than just Slugging Avg itself for telling you about a batter's power. Since Slg Avg starts with BA as its base and then gives you extra credit so to speak for doubles & triples & HRs, a guy with a high BA will usually have at least a decent SlgA even with only occasional XBHs. Ichiro, for example, can "Slug" .450 but if that's with a BA of .360 the power isn't really that impressive, whereas a Mike Cameron type who usually bats in the mid-200s slugging .450 shows much more power. So rather than thinking that Ichiro & Cameron are equal sluggers due to their similar SlgA (very misleading) you look at Ichiro's .090 IsoP number and compare it to Cameron's .200 or so points and more clearly see the difference. So when I look at "slash" stats I'll think about how 'walk rates' of around 65-70 points and IsoP rates of around 140-150 show average strike zone knowledge and power output and see if/how much a player is above or below those figures. Guys whose walk rate gets over .100 or below .050 (with a decent sample size of course) show the extremes, the same for an IsoP of under .100 or over say .250 while the leagues top power hitters will have an IsoP that tops .300

I usually recognize pitches once they're thrown but rarely try to 'think ahead' as to what pitch is going to come next. And, yes, sometimes the definitions of these pitches becomes a bit of a gray area at times. What one guy might call a slider would be similar to what another calls his curve or his 'slurve', and how a slider is different from a cutter sometimes matters more in the way it's gripped/delivered than in how it acts.

Yeah, it looked like his positioning screened him from seeing Reyes's hand and then got fooled by seeing the foot come off coupled with Junior Hariston's sales job. I suspect he suspected a goof immediately upon seeing both Jose's and Hale's insta-reaction but certainly can't change the call just based on that. If he were more convinced he was right I think he tosses Reyes the second that helmet hit the ground. Ahhh yes, the obligatory Dickey-face photo.

Hu v Pridie was clearly a L/R choice. Southpaw Burnett was in instead of Storen because, once past Bay leading off, he had a whole bushel full of NYM LHBs to face that inning. I normally shun L/R decisions that are made solely for that reason but it's not like either is a great hitter there so I would have gone with Hu also. You want the bat on the ball in that situation and I think of CLH as less K-prone - not sure if I can back that up but that's my story and I'm sticking to it - and if it caused Riggleman to switch to his RH closer-type for a game that was a decent bet to go to extras at that point then that's fine too; I would have stuck with Hu in that case. It was kind of a fortunate inning if you think about it: Bay had the infield single to lead off; Davis blooped that one in front of Bernadino who got it via the shortest of short hops; then the Harris bunt (which I was OK with) that Hairston Jr pretty much screwed up. So the bags were loaded w/none out on three hits that probably wouldn't have broken glass (although after the Reyes call we were owed a break). Then the lifting got easier and we got nice ABs from Hu and especially Murph. He not only hit a pretty nice pitch up-and-in but he roped it. That and his earlier HR more than made up for the play where he wasn't covering 2nd on the LaRoche bloop that Bay couldn't come up with.

Which now makes it 71 of their 114 runs via the HR - or 62.3%

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Roy Oswalt inhabits a world without cell-phone service. Maybe he should be in Edgy's movie.

Also the closer Contreras who's in for the injured closer Lidge is now himself injured and will be out for several weeks. Whoever is responsible for this weekend's KTE should take note of this ... oh wait, that's me!

Rule seven: No poofters

In a way it's a shame Emaus didn't hang with the Mets. Think of the promotion fun they could have made out of his inclusion on the AS ballot. Cue the music: Pick Emaus, pick Emaus Forever let us hold our ballots high (high, high, high) Come along and stuff the box for all the Mets you see Pick Emaus, fuck Uggla, shit on Chase Ut-ley

Young - 1.5 Igarashi - 0.4 Buchholz - 1.0 Rodriguez - 0.5 Thole - 1.8 Davis - 1.7 Bay - 1.0 Murphy - 1.4 Pridie - 0.7

Maybe the ballots were designed in Florida.

Consider also that Lillibridge came up as a SS; was traded from Pitt to Atlanta for Adam LaRoche, and then to the ChiSox for Javier Vazquez. The Sox have been using him as a kind of all-purpose fill-in. And that he was only in the game as of the 8th inning when he came in as a pinch-runner for the guy that $36 million set-up man Rafael Soriano plunked before serving up the eventual game-winning HR to Paul Konerko. That pumps the ERA of 'Score-iano' (as Steve Somers calls him) to near 9.00. The night before (when they were getting punked by Philip Humber) he allowed a low pop-up to simply drop just a foot or two behind the mound as he never even made a move for it and it wasn't high enough to any of the other infielders reach (insert range jokes here). He only gave up one run in that outing. 2 solo homers was all the O they could muster. Pushing their already ridiculous pct of runs via HR* up towards 65% * see the: 'Live by the sword' thread

The real reason for early ballots, of course, is to get the sponsor's name out there more often. For years it was Gillette back when I could pick the punch cards up at the local drug store I don't even know who's backing them these days which is part of the problem. I've long maintained that they'd get better bang for their buck with a shorter but more dedicated voting period. If everyone knew that voting ran from, say, June 1 to July 1 you'd actually have some sort of anticipation in the thing instead of this notion that they're basically available from the start of the year. I mean, not that it's a big deal or anything, but the fact that they've got guys on the ballot, in this age of computers and on-line voting, who aren't in starting major league jobs (and shirley won't have guys on it who are) is just too stupid for words.

No matter what the field looks like I think you always want to go with the best available. A deeper draft means there should be less of a reason to "overpay" high up, but that was never really the Mets' problem in the first place. Where they've skimped in the past was in not taking a chance in the later rounds either on a HS kid oozing with potential but a long way from polished, or on the college kid with options like another year remaining or a football option that he can parlay into a bigger bonus. Bottom line is none of this should affect the #13 pick and probably not the 44th either. Like Podesta said in that link, over-spending isn't something you do just to do it but also something you shouldn't be afraid to do if you see an opportunity that could pay off in the long run. The interesting team this year should be Tampa who don't have a pick in the top 23 but then have a stunning 12 picks in the next 65

The word on this draft from even before last year's draft was over was this figures to be one of the deepest fields ever and that opinion hasn't changed a bit as the date draws nearer. UCLA pitcher Gerritt Cole (who opted not to sign with the Yanx when they made him #28 overall out of HS 3 years ago) and Rice U 3B Anthony Rendon are widely expected to go 1-2 or 2-1 After that is where the speculation starts. The good part about it being a deep draft is the idea that both the 13th pick and the 44th pick (thank you Pedro Feliciano) could yield much better players than what you'd normally expect out of those slots.

Niese - 2.9 Byrdak - 0.2 Wright - 3.0 Pridie - 1.7 Beltran - 1.2 Davis - 1.0

Gee - 2.0 Beato - 0.4 Isringhausen - 0.4 Rodriguez - 0.4 Reyes - 1.0 Murphy - 1.5 Davis - 1.4 Bay - 2.2 Turner - 0.7

soupcan wrote: But they play 81 games in a bandbox and ARod, Texiera, Posada, Cano and Granderson are going to keep hitting them even if Martin and the rest of them cool off, no? They'll hit a lot, but they won't hit them like this. Plus when your offense depends so much on the HR you don't get around to building runs when the power does slump (like tonight when they got 2-hit by Philip Humber and a bad ChiSox bullpen) I'd think that having a park like that and relying in the homerun isn't necessarily a dumb thing. Earl Weaver won lots of games that way. Sure, if only it were as easy as simply telling a lineup of almost entirely post-30 players to just go hit HRs at well over their career rates or have a ridiculous percentage of their hits go for HRs.

Edgy DC wrote: The trick is going to be whether they can keep this up (not likely) OR whether the weak spots they do have in their lineup so far: Gardener (.140/.197/.263), Jeter (17 of 19 hits are singles), Posada (other than the power) are going to be there to pick up the slack when the homer barrage starts to fade. I figured the trick was going to be keeping their starting pitchers from imploding when the worm turns on them. Well that too. CC has pitched decently but hasn't been getting wins. Burnett's actually been kind of good. It's been ancient warrior Freddie Garcia & that escaped Thanksgiving Day float Bartolo Colon who have been keeping them solvent lately. Meanwhile Phil Hughes cut short his re-hab start tonight with ... more dead arm syndrome.