Frayed Knot

BP weighs in: Wheeler d'Arnaud Syndergaard Fullmer Flores Cecchini Tapia Familia Nimmo Montero And a composite of sorts among the three lists (BA, BP & Sickels) 1 - Wheeler 2 - d'Arnaud 3 - Syndergaard 4 - Flores 5 - Fullmer 6 - Cecchini 7 - Nimmo 8 - Familia 9 - Montero 10 - Mateo 11 - Tapia 12 - Mozzoni The good news, much better depth and overall quality. The bad news, 8 of the 12 are RHPs and, of the hitters, only d'Arnaud and (maybe late in the season) Flores have a shot at contributing to the big club this year - or even next year for that matter.

bmfc1 wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: That swing we first saw from him seemed to disappear about two years ago. I remember him hitting a long HR in a spring game two or three years ago--he pulled it to RF--and wondered where that came from and if we'd see more of that in the coming years. We didn't. Instead, we saw lots of weak flyballs to LF and weak groundballs to 2B. IIRC he hit like three HRs that spring including that over-the-hill bomb you're referencing (even though I think that one was a bit wind-aided). But it's not like he seemed to get all HR-happy on account of that, it's just that his swing never seemed as controlled or smooth and he was forever topping the ball. For a while last summer I was keeping track of the number of balls he actually hit out of the infield and it got embarrassing after a while. Even the few OF outs he did get were short bloops. He may have gone weeks without even making an OFer back up for a catch.

More unusual seven-player trade oddity: - this deal where four of the seven players swapped are catchers? (d'Arnaud, Buck, Thole, Nickeas) or - the McReynolds to the Mets deal where four of the seven players were named Kevin? (Kevin McReynolds + Adam Ging and Gene Walter for Kevin Mitchell, Kevin Brown, Kevin Armstrong and Shawn Abner)

That swing we first saw from him seemed to disappear about two years ago.

Swan Swan H wrote: MLB players (off the top of my head) with a double-A in their names: Kirk Saarloos - he was the one and only with two double-vowels Moose Haas Jim Kaat there are probably others Some dude named Henry, played for the Braves. Oh yeah, Tommy Aaron, I remember him. I think he had a brother who played too. David Aardsma too, now the first man in baseball alphabetically. Also one-time Met Don Aase

MLB players (off the top of my head) with a double-A in their names: Kirk Saarloos - he was the one and only with two double-vowels Moose Haas Jim Kaat there are probably others

The problem with Thole is that virtually all of his offensive value rested in his BA - so that when his BA wasn't as good as hoped (or as it briefly was in the minors) there were few walks and power to fall back on. I always wanted him to succeed (of course) but I was never to high on believing it would happen. He just seemed to not have the same swing as when we first saw him. That swing was never going to produce much power, but at least it was good for contact. But in the last year not only did the contact go down but he rarely got anything out of the infield much less in a gap. Second Spitter is posting in this thread at the Josh Thole level.

Per John Sickels: Wuilmer Becerra, OF -- The Blue Jays spent $1,300,000 to sign Wuilmer Becerra out of Venezuela in 2011. They brought him directly to North America in 2012, skipping the Latin American summer leagues. Unfortunately, he got into just 11 games in the Gulf Coast League, his season ending early after being hit in the face by a pitch. Becerra is tall and lanky at 6-4, 190, but runs very well and could be a 20+ steal guy at higher levels if all goes well. He also has above-average power potential, and flashes good plate discipline. However, his swing mechanics are inconsistent and he may be more ripper than hitter. His arm isn't very good, so he profiles best at left field. At Becerra's age, anything can happen. Keep in mind that he wouldn't even be drafted until 2013 if he'd been born in the United States. He was born October 1st, 1994. iow, he's a long, long way off no matter what he eventually turns into

Mejia, with 140 days of ML experience, is considered graduated out of the prospect realm. As, obviously, is Harvey. I think Sickels mentions Mejia in response to a question somewhere in the comments section of his piece if you feel like wading through all the petty discussions to find it. But, yeah, I don't have a good handle on where he is or where I think he's going either at this point.

Swan Swan H wrote: To make room for Ian Stewart the Cubs DFA'ed Jeff Beliveau. This is mildly surprising, as he was penciled in as the left wing on the third line next season. Maybe that's been the Cubs problem for much of the last century ... too weak on the left wing.

SS Steven Drew inks a one-year deal with the BoSox. That should work out well seeing as how his brother was oh-so popular during his stint with the Sawx ... Bazinga! JD was known as "Nancy" Drew up there after a fairly short time. Can't be long until younger bro inherits that title if either he or the team gets off to a tough start.

It's that time of year again. And by nice coincidence, several of the major sites that follow such stuff all have their NYM lists popping out at about the same time. BA came out on Friday with its usual Top-10 list along with some 'best' categories and various long-term (and highly speculative) lineup projections. The downside is that their list is just an ordinal reading with little basis for comparison among each NYM prospect much less compared to the league as a whole, and that their on-line discussion plus scouting reports are available only to subscribers. John Sickels unveiled his list this morning and takes the liberty of assuming that the Dickey deal goes through so treats both d'Arnaud & Syndergaard as if already NYM property. He also includes a thumbnail sketch of his top 20 with grades, plus an overall review of the system as a whole. That the comments section below featuring the prospect nerds who frequent his place spends most of its time arguing over who wasn't included on the list but should have been is a mostly good sign IMO. Nothing worse than straining just to include 20 worthwhile subjects. Excerpts: 1) Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade A-: Borderline B+. He's not perfect, but D'Arnaud is either the best catching prospect in baseball or the second-best behind Mike Zunino. Could use a bit more polish with his throwing and his plate discipline and immediate stardom is unlikely, but overall he's the complete package. Don't expect him to be Mike Piazza, but he should be a long-term solution. 2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. Aside from some control wobbles in Triple-A, he had a terrific year. Projects as a number two starter. Can he duplicate what Matt Harvey did? It's possible. 3) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. He's ahead of where Wheeler was at age 20. Strong sinking fastball, good changeup, breaking stuff coming around, solid command, good body, good makeup, strong sabermetric profile. Just needs to stay healthy. I like him more than many people do, but I really like him. Baseball Prospectus has the Mets next on their list so I expect to see that in the next day or two, although they too will hide most of the guts behind their pay wall.

Toronto Star says the Jays & RA have reached an agreement on a two-year ($25mil) extension. All that remains now is for physicals to be passed and throw-ins to be announced.

Baseball Prospectus runs a pice today that is both a timeless and, for us, a timely primer about how to rationalize a negative spin on any and every move made by your club, mostly by comparing said move to a singular example of where a similar move has gone wrong in the past. Full article via the link, meat and potatoes c-n-p'd below. If your team has signed a free agent, remember that the free agent is probably "old" in baseball terms. He's likely on the wrong side of 30 and "past his prime" or "in decline." Ignore the fact that "past his prime" and "useless" are not the same thing. The fact that he will not repeat his glory years means that the world is about to end. On Friday. If your team has signed a free agent to a long-term deal, simply repeat over and over that even if he fills a pressing current need, the deal will be hard to swallow when the player is 38. Ignore the fact that escalating salaries and increasing revenues will make his 2017 salary look a little better by then and that he gives your team a good chance this year. Just pretend that everything will be the same in 2017 as it is now. And cry because if it does hamstring the team's budget (it might), you have been robbed of your right to cheer for a team that constantly has maximum payroll flexibility three years from now, by virtue of the fact that there's no one on the roster worth keeping that long. That's what the Third Amendment is about. If your team has signed a free agent with an injury history, he will be hurt on Opening Day trying to catch a popup. Because that's what happened to Mo Vaughn. If your team just missed on signing that free agent, your owner is incredibly cheap and your GM has no idea what he's doing. He is unable to see that the free agent would have taken less money to come to your city because his brother's wife's cousin's dog is from a town 150 miles away. And your team has prospects. And your fair city has museums and restaurants. No other city has these things. If your team just lost a free agent who is very good at baseball, this is the worst day in your franchise's history. He is a traitor because... why... doesn't... he... love... me? (Note: I owe this one to my wife. We were living in Cleveland when Lebron left. In five words, she nailed the entirety of the three days that followed.) I'd recommend some emu music. Not emo. Listen to the sounds that emus make. If your team just lost a free agent who was not very good at baseball, despair over the fact that the change of scenery/new role might do him some good. If you just signed this guy, despair over the fact that a leopard can't change his spots and even in a new role or with a different perspective on coaching, this guy will continue to stink. If your team just signed a decent reliever, you can always point out that your team needs a proven closer�, and so despite the fact that they also need three or four decent bullpen arms in general, since this one is not a proven closer�, your team is doomed. What's worse is that the third baseman you just signed can't close either. If your team just lost someone in the Rule 5 Draft, he will become the next Roberto Clemente. Note: Rule 5 picks all have a major flaw in their game. That's why they were left unprotected. Some of them do fix up the flaw, and it works out great. But no one ever rolls out the list of Rule 5 picks that didn't work out. It's a much longer list. Just ignore it. If your team just traded a prospect, you just gave up Jeff Bagwell for Doyle Alexander. It's entirely irrelevant that it was John Smoltz for Alexander and Bagwell for Larry Andersen. This is not the time to be rational. If your team just acquired a prospect, he could get hurt. Or stall. Or not be the 20 WARP player that all industry sources expect him to be... or at least my Cousin Frank said that. He could join Oxfam. He could get hurt. (Um, all baseball players can get hurt.) If your team has done nothing, you could totally do a better job. You'd do something. And there would be 29 GMs lined up at your door to help you do something.

Nymr83 wrote: I've heard it said top shelf college baseball is close to AA competition wise. If true Harvey has been right on target. I dont think thats true at all. While there may be some players capable of playing in AA, the overall level of competition is probably akin to the lowest levels of the US minors or the equivalent of the NY-Penn league. there will be a wider variety of talent though than there is at any given minor league level with the college players ranging from guys who are ready for AA to guys who wouldnt make hte first cut in minor league spring training camps. The overall level of college ball is more akin to the lower levels of the minors, but he did say the "top shelf" is close to AA competition and that's probably pretty accurate. Guys like Harvey who were top-10 picks from major programs generally need little but refresher courses before tackling AA. Harvey himself started in high-A but spent less than a half-season there and even that was mostly due to not pitching competitively since his draft the previous June.

With the usual caveat of this deal being what we've heard it'll be and that the throw-in prospect won't make us go "Whoa!!", I do not want to see the deal fall apart at this point. I can be as sentimental as the next guy (and boy is my mother going to be pissed) but we got Dickey for virtually nothing, then got the best three seasons of his career out of him, and now are selling high on him while observing the better a year too early than a year too late philosophy and for an attractive package that'll fill at least one glaring and immediate hole. Yeah, the players could ultimately turn out to be disappointing but if you take that attitude then you'd never make a deal. And, yeah, maybe this turns out to be dealing him two or three years too early, but when a guy's 38 I'm willing to take that chance.

Andruw heads for Japan

Mex17 wrote: Who are they? Well if we told you that it wouldn't be a surprise when you unwrapped them on Christmas morning. Where are they? At the moment they're at an undisclosed location playing poker with Elvis, Jimmy Hoffa, Kim Jong-Il, Frank Pentangeli, and a bunch of FBI agents. How do we get them? 'Outfielders R Us' has a nice selection this time of year. Or, if you order through 'Amazon' and their salaries total more than $10 million, you get free shipping.

Edgy MD wrote: Really? I mean, do that ever happen? I'm sure it has happened, although probably not often, and if the deal has gotten this far I suspect it will get done. But if Dickey is determined to stick to his earlier vow, or if the Jays don't go as high as what he hopes (he could have stayed here and avoided all this mess if he were willing to sign for less than he wanted) then things still could collapse as word out of Toronto's camp is that they're reluctant to give up D'Arnaud for a pitcher w/only one year of control, even if it's a CY winner with a (relatively) low salary.

RealityChuck wrote: I saw that they get to control him an extra year if they wait until June to bring him up. Well, EVERY player gets his eventual FA target date pushed back a year if he falls short of the full six years of service time. It's not June though, just long enough that this year won't qualify as a full season and, six years hence, would only have 5+ years in the bigs and therefore have to wait one more season. The arbitration date --the one that determines whether he'd be arb-eligible after 2015 instead of 2016-- is closer to late-May/early June but it depends on a number of other factors. ... but we're getting a little ahead of ourselves here.

attgig wrote: so, who's the minor leaguer we're sending? Assuming this turns out to be the rumored 4-for-3 structure being talked out, neither "extra" player has been named although they've been described as less substantial prospects.

Swan Swan H wrote: The deal is agreed to in principle. Toronto now has 72 hours to agree to an extension with Dickey. Innuresting development in that Dickey has previously claimed he has no interest in pre-agreeing to an extension during such a small window so close to his one and only shot at true FA-gency. So if Toronto is serious about this no-extension/no-trade policy, and Dickey sticks to his previous vow and/or simply asks for such a high number that it effectively becomes the same thing, this whole thing could fall apart rather quickly.

Mets � Willets Point wrote: I'm out of the loop. What did he say at the Christmas party? Did he profess love for Hitler? Did he kill and eat a puppy? Did he ask Sandy to show him the plan!!!!? It really wasn't much, just that in a kid-themed team outing where "we're not here to talk business" comments would have been more appropriate, Dickey expressed some degree of frustration with the ongoing contract talks, which of course basically means that he didn't like the fact that they weren't offering more money. At least one reporter took that as a jumping off point to suggest that RA maybe isn't the most beloved among his teammates and that he is often his own favorite topic of conversation. That, in turn, leads to speculation that maybe mgmt planted those stories as a cover to make a trade of a popular (with fans anyway) CY winner go down a little easier pr-wise. Plus there were the Hitler-love and puppy-killing incidents.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: D'Arnaud did injure his PCL last June, keeping him out until almost the end of the AAA season. Right, but also avoided surgery and only missed the remainder of the season because it was already closing in on end of the season. If he's not on the opening day roster through choice that's one thing, although he has had almost 800 PAs in the upper (AA + AAA) minors at this point. I thought the implication was that the injury would keep him out.

Thumbnail sketches of D'Arnaud & the recently mentioned Syndergaard from John Sickels' site. He rates them one-two among TBJ prospects - although Syndergaard probably jumped up a spot or three due to Gose's late season promotion and the prospect package sent to Miami for their starting roster. 1) Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade A-: Borderline B+. He's not perfect, but D'Arnaud is either the best catching prospect in baseball or the second-best behind Mike Zunino. Could use a bit more polish with his throwing and his plate discipline, but overall he's the complete package. 2) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. I love him. Strong sinking fastball, good changeup, breaking stuff coming around, solid command, good body, good makeup, strong sabermetric profile. Just needs to stay healthy. Syndergaard turned 20 in August and was the 39th pick overall in 2010 out of a Texas high school. He pitched at low-A this past season so figure him probably for St Lucie in 2013 if this goes through.