LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I don't want to be the turd on the brunch plate... but, well.... But there's a reason why some of the smarter naysayers will point to things like the 80% strand rate and BaseRuns*-- because they're a pretty strong indicator of luck-as-contributing-factor, and most of the time, prove stronger predictors of future success/failure than recent win-loss record.... *- Kinda like Bill James' Runs Created-- a remarkably accurate run-estimator based on hits, walks, and homers. Think Pythagorean Record for runs, based on primary offensive stats. On the other hand, the odds are pretty slim for a non-playoff contender winning nine out of ten.