batmagadanleadoff

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: why is 2nd Spitty so mad at me? Because you cheated on his rawk quiz.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: coughpiazzaahementireteamin1999 John Olerud? Say it ain't so.

Ceetar wrote: Do you have any specific instances of where a player has said how he would adjust his swing if he noticed he wasn't hitting it out? I'm not aware of any. I doubt that a player would admit to altering his swing to make up for the HR's he thinks he'd otherwise lose to Citi Field. The player wouldn't want to be perceived as blaming a stadium for his diminished production; it goes against baseball's unwritten code that looks down on a player who makes excuses for his play, even when those excuses have merit; and he'd probably be admitting to ignoring instruction or advice from the coaching staff. Ceetar wrote: Would he try to pull the ball more? hit it more level and ignore HR? My guess is that a player would try to pull the ball more often to increase HR production, especialy a right-handed hitter at Citi Field (like Bay and Wright). To pull the ball, the batter must hit the pitch earlier instead of later. This allows the batter to make contact at the point in his swing where the speed of the bat is at its fastest. Distance = mass x velocity. So assuming all else equal, like the weight of his bat and the incoming speed of the pitch, the ball will travel farther when struck harder, which is faster, which is the velocity variable. That's why, all else equal, it's much easier for a batter to pull a ball for distance x than it is to hit the ball for the same distance x to the opposite field. Of course, to swing harder, a batter has to swing earlier, and that's where the tradeoff begins. He might hit a few more HR's, but at the expense of not seeing the ball as much, or as well, and thus, also striking out more or hitting more clunkers. It's possible that by trying to hit the ball farther, the player, in the long run, ends up hitting the ball for shorter distances. I think that Jason Bay is definitely swinging earlier. To me, this is obvious enough that it's readily apparent from simply watching him on TV. He might be trying to hit the ball farther to compensate for CF. Or he might be trying to compensate for reduced bat speed from age or injury. Or he just might be messed up. Only Bay knows for sure.

metsmarathon wrote: that's why i wanna see the specific data for a specific hitter. Hitter's spray charts aren't necessarily probative of the matter. We don't know what specifically causes a hitter to tinker with his approach to playing at CF. It probably differs from hitter to hitter. It might not take more than one or two HR's lost for a hitter to change (consciously or not) his swing. It might not even be a lost HR. It might be a shot that's a double anywhere else, but results in a CF fly out because there's more room for the outfielder to run down flyballs or because CF allows the outfielder to position himself one or two steps deeper. It might be based on batted balls hit during batting practice. Only the hitter knows for sure how he's mentally affected by having CF convert some of his seemingly sure extra base hits into outs.

Ceetar wrote: you can't ignore the injuries to Wright and Davis and Bay sucking. Yes you can. They play road games, too.

metsmarathon wrote: (0.91-0.86)/0.91 = 0.054 = 5% i would expect 5% fewer homers at citi field than shea based on the available historic data. if you scale the home homers to the same number of road homers, you get, for every 1,217 homers hit in road mets games, there will be 1062 homers hit in home mets games, presuming the current ratio stands up. 1106 -1062 = 44 44 / 1106 = 0.040, or 4% fewer homers hit at citi than shea, given an equivalent road-homer environment. fuck jason bay and david wright even more. oe: those espn park factors sure are wonky, aren't they? It's 5% more ... but 5% more than 9% ... a difference of more than 50% (5 over 9) ... a large difference. (And this is counting, not dropping, the 2009 season). I don't know why you say fuck Bay and Wright. It seems to me that Citi Field reduces HR's so drastically that the stadium is, in all likelihood, a factor in their dropoffs. I assumed this would happen before a single game was ever played at CF, as soon as I learned what the dimensions and height of the outfield walls were. I'd say" fuck Citi Field" before I gave the fuck you to Bay or Wright.

Here's the ratio of Mets/opponents HR's at Mets home games over Mets/opponents Hr's at Mets road games -- 2002-2008. A ratio of 1.00 indicates that the home and road HR rates for that season are identical; less than 1 indicates that the HR rate was greater on the road; more than 1 indicates that the HR rate was greater at home. 2010 0.719 2004 0.804 2011 0.807 2003 0.835 2006 0.881 2007 0.884 2005 0.890 2002 0.994 2009 1.057 2008 1.081

Here's the list of every overall #3 pick. Two Hall of famers drafted within four years of each other -- teammates for many years for the same expansion team that drafted them. Not much star power considering that the list covers almost 50 years of players that were the most sought after in their respective classes .... a noticeable uptick, though, for players who carved out replacement level+, but not spectacular careers. 2011 � Trevor Bauer � Diamondbacks � RHP 2010 � Manny Machado � Orioles � SS 2009 � Donovan Tate � Padres � OF 2008 � Eric Hosmer � Royals � 1B 2007 � Josh Vitters � Cubs � 3B 2006 � Evan Longoria � Devil Rays � 3B 2005 � Jeffrey Clement � Mariners � C 2004 � Philip Humber � Mets � RHP 2003 � Kyle Sleeth � Tigers � RHP 2002 � Chris Gruier � Reds � RHP 2001 � Dewon Brazelton � Devil Rays � RHP 2000 � Luis Montanez � Cubs � SS 1999 � Eric Munson � Tigers � C 1998 � Corey Patterson � Cubs � OF 1997 � Troy Glaus � Angels � 3B 1996 � Braden Looper � Cards � RHP 1995 � Jose Cruz, Jr. � Mariners � OF 1994 � Dustin Hermanson � Padres � RHP 1993 � Brian Anderson � Angels � LHP 1992 � Billy Wallace � Expos � LHP 1991 � David McCarty � Twins � OF 1990 � Mike Lieberthal � Phillies � C 1989 � Roger Salkeld � Mariners � RHP 1988 � Steve Avery - Braves � LHP 1987 � Willie Banks � Twins � RHP 1986 � Matt Williams � Giants � SS (this is the Matt Williams. Really). 1985 � Bobby Witt � Rangers � RHP 1984 � Drew Hall � Cubs � LHP 1983 � Jeff Kunkel � Rangers � SS 1982 � Jimmy Jones � Padres � RHP 1981 � Dick Schofield � Angels � SS 1980 � Ken Dayley � Braves � LHP 1979 � Jay Schroeder � Blue Jays � C 1978 � Hubie Brooks � Mets � SS 1977 � Paul Molitor � Brewers � SS 1976 � Ken Smith � Braves � 3B 1975 � Les Filkins � Tigers � OF 1974 � Lonnie Smith � Phillies � OF 1973 � Robin Yount � Brewers � SS 1972 � Larry Christenson � Phillies � RHP 1971 � Tom Bianco = Brewers � SS 1970 � Barry Foote � Expos � C 1969 � Ted Nicholson � White Sox � 3B 1968 � Marty Cott � Astros � 3B 1967 � Mike Garman � Red Sox � RHP 1966 � Wayne Twitchell � Astros � RHP 1965 � Joe Coleman � Senators � RHP

metsmarathon wrote: if we're dropping data because it conflicts with our preconceived notions, then i suggest we also toss out shea's 2008 park effect of 1.081, which was likely inflated by citi's affect on the natural wind patterns. doing that, shea's average home run park effect is 0.884. I don't know what you mean when you write that I was "dropping data". I simply theorized that over time, it will be shown that Citi Field reduces HR's by a rate that's greater than the present rate. I believe that the 2009 splits are atypical. It'll take several more seasons to determine whether or not I'm in the ballpark. This doesn't mean that I "dropped" or ignored anything. Besides, I couldn't have ignored data even if I wanted to because I didn't make any conclusions base on ignored or selective data. metsmarathon wrote: from 2001 to 2008, shea stadium had an average park effect on homers of 0.870, based on the data on espn.com. this includes 2006 where shea had a jaw-droppingly low park factor of 0.575..... from 2009 until present, citi field has an aveage park effect on homers of 0.861, based on the same espn data. I worked out the numbers for myself, and got markedly different results. I couldn't find the team splits for the 2001 season, but I used the data for every season from 2002 to the present. If you provide me with 2001 splits, I'll try and add them to the table below. SEASONMETS' ROAD GAMES/HR�SMETS' HOME GAMES/HR�S200280/16181/162200381/16080/132200481/18981/152200581/16481/146200681/20281/178200781/18081/162200881/16181/174200981/12381/130201081/15381/110201129/5532/49 Here are the totals: 2002-2008 Road 566 games/1,217 HR's Home 566 games/1,106 HR's 2009-present Road 191 games/331 HR's Home 194 games/289 HR's The Shea era data (2002-08) works out nicely in that the Mets played the same amount of home and road games (566). Therefore, I prorated the Citi Field era data to 566 home and road games, for an easy visual comparison: 2009-present (prorated to 566 games) Road 566 games/981 HR's Home 566 games/843HR's According to these numbers, Shea reduced HR's by 9%; Citi reduces HR's by 14% --- a difference of more than 50%

Edgy DC wrote: Frustrating to go to Beato and Izzy with a four run lead on no rest, but not go to Rodriguez in a tied ninth. I'm with you here. Unless K-Rod needed the night off, he should've entered the game no later than the ninth inning. Given the sudden death nature that defined tonight's game when the Brewers took their last at-bat, Collins, from the ninth inning on, should have used the best pitcher available, subject of course, to availability. Fuck the save and the finish. I'm beginning to wonder if K-Rod's got a secret side deal to share with Terry, some of the option vesting $17.5M that K-Rod's on pace to earn.

The Bastard who cost us the game: 1. Beato. 2. Evans 3. Myrna 4. Izzy. 5. Bay. I'm adding Pagan to your list. He batted cleanup tonight even though he still can't lefties. Hernandez noted in tonight's telecast that Pagan entered the game batting .143 against lefties -- the first time I've heard media acknowledge Pagan's suckiness against lefties. Keith's observation, merely limited to the 2011 season, which could be dismissed due to small sample size given the amount of PT Pagan missed this season because of injuries, didn't go far enough. Here's what Pagan did tonight against Wolf: Struck out in the first, stranding Reyes on third; Flied out to lead off the fourth; Popped out to second in the 6th.

metirish wrote: Jose is becoming national talk with his play this season. If the Mets were in the thick of it, he'd be the media's leading candidate for MVP right now. I don't care what those numbers say about his defense.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I've seen the "modern era" defined as starting in 1900. Maybe, but tripling in the dead ball era was much easier than tripling today. Here's a list of the top 10 single season triplers. This list hasn't changed since Calvin Coolidge was the President. * 1. Chief Wilson (1912) - 36 * 2. Dave Orr (1886) - 31 * 2. Heinie Reitz (1894) - 31 * 4. Perry Werden (1893) - 29 * 5. Harry Davis (1897) - 28 * 5. Jimmy Williams (1899) - 28 * 7. George Davis (1893) - 27 * 7. Sam Thompson (1894) - 27 * 9. Sam Crawford (1914) - 26 * 9. Kiki Cuyler (1925) - 26 * 9. Joe Jackson (1912) - 26 * 9. John Reilly (1890) - 26 * 9. George Treadway (1894) - 26

A few searches turned up the following old-timey facts: (1) 27 Triples? The only modern player [????????????] to hit 27 or more 3Bs in a season was Chief Wilson, who set the all-time record of 36 in 1912. (That's not the only 1912 connection for Jose, as we'll see in a moment.) The writer refers to the dead-ball era as the modern era.

BTW - The 1968 Dodgers draft is considered by many, to be the best draft ever by one team. That year, the Dodgers also selected Steve Garvey, Ron Cey, and Davey Lopes. But not before picking Bobby V.

Didn't Damion Easley once hit an inside the park HR at Miller Field by hitting virtually the same spot on the outfield wall where Reyes' triple landed? I was mightily impressed with Justin Turner's first inning walk. With two strikes, Turner fouled off four pitches, and appeared to eventually wear down the opposing pitcher. It seemed to me that Turner purposely softened his swing with the express intention of fouling off pitcher's pitches that weren't hittable with the good part of the bat, yet too close too take with two strikes.

I ran the list of all-time first rounders, overall fifth-picks for every year of the draft. Somewhat better than the 13th picks, but not by as much as I would've imagined. Even at the #5 slot, it's still a big crap-shoot. No Hall of Famers here, but two in-their-prime superduperstars who were once considered locks for the Hall. 2011 � Derek (Bubba) Starling � Royals � OF 2010 � Drew Pomeranz � Indians � LHP 2009 � Matthew Hobgood � Orioles � RHP 2008 � Buster Posey � Giants � C 2007 � Matt LaPorta � Brewers � 1B 2006 � Brandon Morrow � Mariners � RHP 2005 � Ryan Braun � Brewers � 3B 2004 � Mark Rogers � Brewers � RHP 2003 � Chris Lubanski � Royals � OF 2002 � Clint Everts � Expos � RHP 2001 � Mark Teixeira � Rangers � 3B 2000 � Justin Wayne � Expos � RHP 1999 � B.J. Garbe � Twins � OF 1998 � J.D. Drew � Cards � OF 1997 � Vernon Wells � Blue Jays � OF 1996 � John Patterson � Expos � RHP 1995 � Ariel Prieto � A�s � RHP 1994 � Josh Booty � Marlins � SS 1993 � Jeff Granger � Royals � LHP 1992 � Chad Mottola � Reds � OF 1991 � James Henderson � Brewers � RHP 1990 � Kurt Miller � Pirates � RHP 1989 � Donald Harris � Rangers � OF 1988 � Bill Bene � Dodgers � RHP 1987 � Jack McDowell � White Sox � RHP 1986 � Kent Mercker � Braaves � LHP 1985 � Kurt Brown � White Sox � C 1984 � Pat Pacillo � Reds � RHP 1983 � Stan Hilton � A�s � RHP 1982 � Dwight Gooden � Mets � RHP 1981 � Matt Williams � Blue Jays � RHP (the Matt Williams) 1980 � Jeff Pyburn � Padres � OF 1979 � Juan Bustabad � A�s � SS 1978 � Andy Hawkins � Padres � RHP 1977 � Kevin Richards � Tigers � RHP 1976 � Bob Owchinko � Padres � LHP 1975 � Rich O�Keefe � Brewers � LHP 1974 � Dale Murphy � Braves � C 1973 � Glenn Tufts � Indians � 1B 1972 � Bob Goodman � Expos � C 1971 � Roy Branch � Royals � RHP 1970 � Mike Martin � Phillies � LHP 1969 � Alan Bannister � Angels � SS 1968 � Bobby Valentine � Dodgers � OF 1967 � John Jones � Senators � C 1966 � Dean Burk � Cubs � RHP 1965 � Billy Conigliaro � Red Sox - OF

Jose! Oh Stay! Oh Stay! Oh Stay!

I'd say that the draft's been a crapshhot from the get-go. Here's every single first-round, overall 13th pick ever drafted: 2011 - Brandon Nimmo � Mets - RF 2010 � Chris Sale � White Sox � LHP 2009 � Grant Green � A�s � SS 2008 � Brett Wallace � Cards � 3B 2007 � Beau Mills � Indians � 3B 2006 � Tyler Colvin � Cubs � OF 2005 � Brandon Snyder � Orioles � C 2004 � Bill Bray � Expos � LHP 2003 � Aaron Hill � Blue Jays � SS 2002 � Khalil Greene � Padres � SS 2001 � Casey Kotchman � Angels � 1B 2000 � Shaun Boyd � Cards � 2B 1999 � Mike Paradis � Orioles � RHP 1998 � J.M. Gold � Brewers � RHP 1997 � Kyle Peterson � Brewers � RHP 1996 � Robert Stratton � Mets � OF 1995 � Mark Redman � Twins � LHP 1994 � Paul Konerko � Dodgers � C 1993 � Matt Drews � Yankees � RHP 1992 � Chad McConnell � Phillies � OF 1991 � Manny Ramirez � Indians � OF 1990 � Donovan Osborne � Cards � LHP 1989 � Brent Mayne � Royals � C 1988 � Austin Manahan � Pirates � SS 1987 � Bill Spiers � Brewers � SS 1986 � Ryan Bowen � Astros � RHP 1985 � Jeff Bumgarner � Twins � RHP 1984 � Bob Caffrey � Expos � C 1983 � Joel Davis � White Sox � RHP 1982 � John Russell � Phillies � C/OF 1981 � George Alpert � Indians � OF 1980 � Lebo Powell � Phillies � C 1979 � Rick Leach � Tigers � OF 1978 � Bill Hayes � Cubs � C 1977 � Andrew Madden � Red Sox � RHP 1976 � Tom Thurberg � Mets � OF/RHP 1975 � Rick Sofield � Twins � SS 1974 � Garry Templeton � Cards � SS 1973 � Doug Heinhold � Yankees � RHP 1972 � Richard Bengston � Mets � C 1971 � Frank Tanana � Angels � LHP 1970 � John Bedard � Pirates � RHP 1969 � Noel Jenke � Red Sox � OF 1968 � Tim Grant � Reds � RHP 1967 � Dan Haynes � White Sox � 3B 1966 � Gary Nolan � Reds � RHP 1965 � Gene Lamont � Tigers - C

Apparently, Gee added a cutter to his mix of pitches for his start against the Braves. He sems to have developed the cutter on one day's notice, tinkering in a bullpen session the day before the game. Not only was Gee effective, the rookie was clever, adding a cutter to his arsenal that helped keep Atlanta's hitters off-balance. "My slider has been real bad, so in the bullpen [before last night's outing], I started throwing a cutter," Gee said. "I said I've got to figure out something here, and I threw it quite a bit during game. It was a new pitch they haven't seen from me." The cutter helped Gee continue his stellar beginning to the season, as he improved to 6-0 and lowered his ERA to 3.33 on the year, and the Mets have won all eight of his starts. http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/golly_gee_the_mets_got_an_ace_nKo5I5ulgEpiAlv1hJYmMM#ixzz1OQn0FzMN

... and a rare, Kineresque appearance by the Firecracker to add Ramirez to the list. 1. Mark McGwire - A's & Cards (HahnSolo) 2. Fred McGriff - Padres & Blue Jays (JCL) 3. Manny Ramirez - Indians & Red Sox (VCF) (tied with Thome for Indians record among post-1961 players; Shoeless Joe Jackson, all-time Indians OPS+ leader); (all-time Sox OPS+ leader, Ted Williams) One trick to this trivia question was to focus on the min. 1500 PA requirement -- roughly three seasons worth of game-time. OPS+ is a rate stat, and therefore, we weren't necessarily looking for players like Yaz or Stargell, who had to play for the same team for about two decades to accumulate their counting stat franchise records. The other two twofers are: Vladimir Guerrero - Angels & Expos (tied for Rusty Staub for all time Expos/Nats OPS+ career leader) & Gary Sheffield - Dodgers & Marlins. Here's the entire list: Adj OPS+ (min. 1,500PA, among players who debuted no earlier than 1962) 1. Barry Bonds � Giants � 199 2. Mark McGwire � Cardinals - 180 3. Frank Robinson � Orioles � 169 4. Frank Thomas � White Sox � 161 (Shoeless Joe, 2d all-time, 159 OPS+) 5. Gary Sheffield � Dodgers � 160 (Mike Piazza, 2d all-time, 159 OPS+) 6. Brian Giles � Pirates � 158 (Ralph Kiner, 2d all-time, 157 OPS+; Honus Wagner, 3d all-time, 154 OPS+) 7. Gary Sheffield � Marlins � 156 8t. Mark McGwire � A�s � 155 (3d all-time; Jimmie Foxx, 174 OPS+ #1) 8t. Manny Ramirez � Red Sox � 155 (4th all-time, Ted Williams 190 OPS+ #1) 8t. Alex Rodriguez � Rangers - 155 11t. Richie Allen � Phillies � 153 (2d all-time; Elmer Flick, 156 OPS+ #1) 11t. Joey Votto � Reds � 153 11t. Miguel Cabrera � Tigers � 153 (3d all-time; Ty Cobb, 171 OPS+ #1) 11t. Fred McGriff � Blue Jays - 153 15. Manny Ramirez/Jim Thome � Indians 152 (4th all-time, Shoeless Joe, 182 #1) 16t. Jeff Bagwell � Astros � 149 16t. Fred McGriff � Padres - 149 18t. Reggie Jackson � Yankees � 148 (6th all-time; Babe Ruth, 209 OPS+ #1) 18t. Vladimir Guerrero/Rusty Staub � Expos/Nationals 148 20t. Edgar Martinez � Mariners - 147 20t. Larry Walker � Rockies � 147 22. Darryl Strawberry � Mets � 145 (John Olerud, 2d all-time 142 OPS+) 23. Rod Carew � Twins � 137 (Harmon Killebrew, 1st all-time, 145 OPS+) 24. Danny Tartabull � Royals - 144 25. Rico Carty � Braves � 143 (3d all-time; Hank Aaron, 158 OPS+ #1) 26t. Vladimir Guerrero � Angels � 141 26t. Ryan Braun � Brewers � 141 (Prince Fielder, 2d all-time, 140 OPS+) 28. Bill Madlock/Sammy Sosa � Cubs � 139 (5th all-time; Hack Wilson, 155 OPS+ #1) 29. Carlos Pena � 135 � Devil Rays/Rays 30. Luis Gonzalez � Diamondbacks � 130

I'll flip over the answers soon. So howcum nobody guessed Mike Piazza?

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I gotta say, as overmatched as we are, and with as many bad breaks and bad losses as we've absorbed so far this year, I am enjoying the 2011 Mets as much as any Mets team since 05/06 (I kinda liked the 05ers). When they took a cockpunch loss last year, I felt as if they got what they deserved by playing sloppy, passive, poorly piloted loserball. Whereas this team takes bad losses mostly because the other teams have more talent, and not as a result of anything more than that.. And they fight just as hard the next night. I bet it's cause they're exceeding your expectations. If you thought this same team would stay on pace for 95 wins, you'd wanna tar and feather practically all of them.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: McGwire McGriff Bonds A-Roid Thome 1. McGwire - A's & Cards (HahnSolo) 2. McGriff - Padres & Blue Jays (JCL)

HahnSolo wrote: McGwire Albert Belle Miguel Cabrera McGwire is the all-time OPS+ leader for the A's and the Cards. 1. McGwire (HahnSolo)