The bit about "every team's going to win a third, lose a third, it's the other third that determines their season" got me curious. Since the season began, I've been tracking each Mets game in terms of Gonna Win, Gonna Lose and Wins/Losses Allegedly Determining Their Season. If you go by the one-third formula, the Mets, at 27-27, should have a Determining Third Index standing of or near 18-18/9-9 -- after all, a third of their wins should be givens, as should be their losses, right? But it doesn't seem to be working that way, as discussed in this exploration of The One-Third Myth. As an exclusive to CPFers, here is what my tracking has told me thus far on a game-by-game basis with key events noted (your Met mileage may vary): GAMES YOU'RE GOING TO WIN 12 001 NYM 7 FLA 1 Opening Day, Santana 6 IP 009 NYM 5 COL 0 Pelfrey 7 IP, 5 H 012 NYM 6 CHI 1 Pagan 2-R HR, Davis debut 017 NYM 5 ATL 2 Davis 1st HR; Takahashi 3.2 IP W; Atl 4 E's 020 NYM 4 LAD 0 Santana 6 IP; Bay 1st HR 021 NYM 10 LAD 5 Wright 4 RBI; Davis 3 RBI 022 NYM 7 LAD 3 Maine 9 K, 6+ IP 023 NYM 9 PHI 1 Niese 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 K; Barajas 2 HR, 3 RBI 046 NYM 8 PHI 0 Dickey 6 IP, 7 K; Reyes 3 H, Valdes 3 IP 047 NYM 5 PHI 0 Takahashi 6 IP 0 BB; Bar 3 RBI; Reyes HR; 4 SB 051 NYM 10 MIL 4 Dickey 7 IP, RBI; Frenchy 4 H, Blanco 3 H 053 NYM 4 SDP 2 Pelfrey 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 K; Wright, Davis HR GAMES YOU'RE GOING TO LOSE 12 003 FLA 3 NYM 1 Badenhop 3 scoreless IP 006 WAS 5 NYM 2 Liv�n Hernandez cruises 007 COL 11 NYM 3 Maine falls apart 015 CHI 9 NYM 3 Bullpen allows 6 runs in 4 innings 024 PHI 10 NYM 0 Halladay CG 3-hitter 025 PHI 11 NYM 5 Santana 3.2 IP, 10 ER 032 WAS 3 NYM 2 Pudge 4-4; Mets Batters 11 K 036 FLA 7 NYM 2 Perez 3.1 IP, 4 HR allowed 037 FLA 7 NYM 5 Maine 4 straight walks to start 1st inning 041 WAS 5 NYM 3 Pagan ITP HR, Starts TP; Dickey 6 IP 050 MIL 8 NYM 6 Nieve 2 IP, 5 ER; Perez 2 IP, 3 ER 052 SDP 18 NYM 6 Takahashi 4 IP, 6 ER; Bullpen 4 IP, 12 ER THE THIRD THAT DETERMINE YOUR SEASON � WINS 15 004 NYM 8 WAS 2 Break 2-2 tie in 7th; 2 HRs Francoeur, Barajas 011 NYM 2 STL 1 (20) Mets win vs. Card position players pitching 014 NYM 4 CHI 0 Reyes 3B, 4H, SB; Tatis PH HR; Pelf 7 IP 016 NYM 5 CHI 2 Santana 6.1 IP; Frankie 5-Out Save 018 NYM 3 ATL 1 Francoeur 7th-Inn 2B breaks tie 019 NYM 1 ATL 0 (6) Pelfrey 5 IP, 105 pitches 027 NYM 5 CIN 4 Barajas T-9 HR; Maine 6 IP 029 NYM 6 SFG 4 Barajas 2 HR (W/O); Davis 2 HR, Foul Catch 030 NYM 5 SFG 4 (11) Blanco 3-5, W/O HR; Santana 7.2 IP 033 NYM 8 WAS 6 6-R 8th; Carter 2-R PH; Davis dugout catch 039 NYM 3 ATL 2 Pelfrey 7.2 IP; Barajas 2-R 2B 042 NYM 10 WAS 7 Valdes 5 Relief IP; Wright 4 RBI 044 NYM 5 NYY 3 Pelfrey 6 IP, 1 R; Bay 4 H; K-Rod 5-out SV 045 NYM 6 NYY 4 Santana 7.2 IP, 1 R; Bay 2 HR 048 NYM 3 PHI 0 Pelf 7 IP 3 H; Reyes 3 H, 2 RBI; 3rd Str SHO THE THIRD THAT DETERMINE YOUR SEASON � LOSSES 15 002 FLA 7 NYM 6 (10) Fight back from 6-1; Tatis out at home 005 WAS 4 WAS 3 Willie Harris diving catch ends game 008 COL 6 NYM 5 (10) Ianetta W/O HR off Mejia 010 STL 4 NYM 3 Felipe Lopez GS off Valdes 012 STL 5 NYM 3 Wainwright CG 4-hitter 026 CIN 3 NYM 2 (11) Laynce Nix W/O home run (Acosta) 028 CIN 5 NYM 4 (10) Orlando Cabrera W/O home run (Feliciano) 031 SFG 6 NYM 5 Perez 3.1 IP, 7 BB; Very Windy 034 WAS 6 NYM 4 Bernadina 2 HR, catch; Stammen 3 RBI 035 FLA 2 NYM 1 Winning run on Nieve wild pitch in 9th 038 FLA 10 NYM 8 Down 7-0, pull to 7-6; Niese injured 040 ATL 3 NYM 2 Wright 3 K, E on throw for losing run in 9th 043 NYY 2 NYM 1 Takahashi 6 IP, 0 R; Cora key error; 4 NYM hits 049 MIL 2 NYM 0 Santana 8 IP 3 H, 0 R, 2-for-3; Gallardo CG 054 SDP 5 NYM 1 (11) Santana 7 IP 0 R; Gonzalez w/o GS As explained in the linked article, this is a touch-and-feel exercise based on well-honed fan analysis -- and leavened by sense of heart and gut -- that attempts to characterize the nature of games in their wake, without knowing, ultimately, if anything about the season in progress has been definitively determined. My preliminary conclusion is the "one-third" formula is a myth devised to make teams that just lost lousy games feel it was nobody's fault. Maybe you could have guessed that, but it's been fun finding out.