Why Luis Robert Jr. Deserves To Make It Unscathed Through MLB Trade Deadline With The Mets

As the trade deadline approaches, the New York Mets will entertain trading everything that isn’t nailed down. So, outside of Juan Soto and their stockpile of pre-arbitration stalwarts, everyone should, and probably will, be on the block. However, that doesn’t mean they will engage in a full-on fire sale. For instance, the Mets might listen to offers for Francisco Lindor, but I seriously doubt any organization would make an offer that’s too good to refuse. And to a much lesser degree, the Mets shouldn’t listen to the offers that try to pry Luis Robert Jr. away. 

On the surface, the Mets should thank any team willing to take on Robert and the remainder of his contract. He’s on a $20 million salary for this season and has a $22 million team option for 2027, with a $2 million buyout. Considering he has once again missed considerable time to injury, has a wRC+ of 83, and has graded out as, at best, an average center fielder, it’d be a small miracle if any team was even willing to take on his buyout. I mean, who in their right mind would trade for this?

For three straight seasons, Robert has been injured, ineffective, and wildly infuriating. Throw in A.J. Ewing’s impressive debut in center field, and Robert is now the league’s most expensive fourth outfielder. Yet, despite all of the recent evidence, it’s hard to give up on a player who did this. 

Robert has never been, and probably never will be, a beacon of health, but his first four seasons were exceptional. He blended above-average defense with tons of power, and averaged 4.66 WAR per 600 plate appearances. He, as the cool scouts like to say, was a toolshed, and that doesn’t appear to have changed, even as he approaches 30. 

Robert’s average swing speed of 76.2 MPH is the 23rd-fastest among players with 50 or more swings this season. And his sprint speed of 29.1 feet per second is in the 92nd percentile. The power-speed combination that made him a borderline star is still present, and he has suddenly started to display a more refined approach. 

Even when Robert was a successful hitter, his approach at the plate left a lot to be desired. He rarely walked and struck out too much, and it all stemmed from his propensity to swing at just about anything. But in 2026, he has reigned in his aggressiveness and has the best walk and strikeout figures of his career. 

Now, 126 plate appearances is not a huge sample, but all the statistical indicators suggest his new approach should be somewhat sticky. That doesn’t mean he’ll finish the year with a walk percentage only 9.5% lower than his strikeout rate, but none of his gains feel suspect. If you swing less, you should walk more, and if you swing at better strikes, you should make more contact.

As I’m sure you’re wondering, there is a paradox we have to address: How is it possible for Robert to simultaneously post the best plate discipline figures of his career, while swinging as hard as ever, and also have the lowest wRC+ of his career? Well, there are two things at play. 

Robert has certainly had his fair share of bad luck this season. He has a BABIP of .231, and his xwOBA of .317 far outstrips his actual wOBA of .289. But with his combination of bat speed and walk rate, his xwOBA lags far behind his peers. Among players with 50 batted ball events, only 14 have paired a walk rate of 12% or better with an average swing speed of 75 MPH or greater, and it’s basically a who’s who of MLB superstars. 

Outside of Jake Bauers, who is in the midst of a breakout season at age 30, any self-respecting baseball fan should know who these guys are. If you swing really hard and walk a bunch, you should be a great hitter. However, you’ll notice that Robert’s xwOBA lags way behind, and it all comes down to his minuscule barrel rate. 

[As a quick aside, what the Capital-F is going on with Cal Raleigh?]

Barrel rate is quite simple. It’s the percentage of batted balls that have at least an expected batting average of .500 and slugging percentage of 1.500 based on their exit velocity and launch angle. The harder a player hits the ball, the greater the range of launch angles that will result in a barrel. This relationship is why EV50, which takes the average of a batter’s 50% hardest hit balls, and barrel percentage per batted ball event have a much stronger correlation (0.793) than launch angle sweet spot (0.276). 

Robert’s EV50 of 102.1 MPH isn’t as sterling as his swing speed, but it still ranks 57th out of the 436 hitters who have 50 batted ball events, and it’s his highest mark since 2021. Despite hitting the crap out of the ball, to use a technical term, Robert has a barrel percentage of 3.7%, which ranks 360th. Based solely on his EV50, you’d expect Robert to have a barrel percentage of 11.6%, which is the single largest underperformance in all of baseball. 

That being said, this isn’t just bad luck. Robert’s launch angle sweet spot percentage of 20.7% is 432nd out of 436, but it does present a tremendous amount of upside. For his career, he has a launch angle sweet spot percentage of 35.4%. With his swing speed, exit velocities, and newfound approach, simply posting a launch angle sweet spot percentage of 30%, which would still rank 339th, would vault his production well above league average. 

Whether it's a mechanical or timing issue, Robert has found it more difficult to impart his best contact on balls that he has lifted this season. However, even over the prior two seasons, when he posted a wRC+ of 84, he was able to get far more lift on his best batted balls. His dearth of squared-up balls in the 25 to 30 degree range is what has dragged his barrel rate and production down. 

It has been three seasons since Luis Robert Jr. has even been an average player, but all of the attributes that made him a borderline star are still there. His power and speed remain excellent. He’s making more contact on pitches in the zone, while walking more than ever. On top of that, he bats right-handed and can actually play center field. With the rest of the Mets’ outfield batting from the left side, having a right-handed power bat who can play all three positions as your fourth outfielder seems like a good idea. 

When you factor in his current surface-level production and contract, the Mets aren’t going to get anything in return for Luis Robert Jr. that’s as interesting as Luis Robert Jr. himself. At the very least, the Mets should see if he’s worth that $20 million option, because there’s a player in there that’s worth far more than that.

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