Mets Free Agency Wish List: Sonny Gray Is As Good As It Gets After Tarik Skubal

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The New York Mets’ rotation has young arms with potential, but relying solely on their development to solve the group’s shortcomings is an unnecessary risk. It's clear that they need reinforcements after a 2026 season marked by performance and availability problems.

There are several pitchers (hint: Tarik Skubal) who have been floated as good fits in Queens, and veteran Sonny Gray is one of the starters we should not rule out as one of the interesting alternatives after rejecting his $30 million player option for 2027 and becoming a free agent.

If you need durability and an experienced pitcher still capable of performing like an ace, Gray is your man. He was one of the American League’s elite starters in 2026 and once again showed that he can hold a rotation together for a good part of the schedule. He is coming off a 2.72 ERA, the second-lowest of his career, in 169 innings, with 18 wins and 184 strikeouts.

Why might the risk be worth it? The Mets are in need of leadership on the pitching staff, which is why they traded for Freddy Peralta last offseason. Unfortunately, the Dominican right-hander was never able to establish himself enough as the head of the rotation. On the other hand, Gray carried the Red Sox in a season that began full of turbulence, in which they could barely count on their ace Garrett Crochet.

He has pitched at least 160 innings in each of the last four years and has done so eight times in 12 full seasons in the major leagues, never failing to reach 100 innings in a full season. Among the 54 qualified starters with at least 500 innings pitched since 2023, Gray ranks sixth in xFIP (3.31) and seventh in fWAR (16.2).

That said, Gray’s biggest concern regarding his performance (aside from his age) has been his drop in strikeout rate from 10.1 K/9 in 2025 to 7.93, his worst since he recorded 7.23 in 2016 during his last full season with the Athletics. That made him dependent on the great defense of the Red Sox, which the Mets can't replicate quite yet.

Gray compensated for a good part of that risk with better control of hard contact, reducing his home runs allowed from 25 to 15 and raising his ground-ball rate to 47.9%. However, it was not enough to avoid contact in general, as his whiff rate dropped from 27.5% to 23.1%, while hitters made contact on 90.4% of their swings inside the zone and 54.1% outside it.

FanGraphs projects a 168-inning season, a 3.81 ERA, and 3.0 WAR for 2027, which would be really strong production for a 37-year-old. Some may balk at the Mets handing another aging starter big money (most projections have him around $25-30 million per year over two or three years), but Gray just keeps getting better as he gets older. Save for Skubal, he might be the best pitcher available this offseason.