Mets Free Agency Wish List: Clay Holmes Belongs In New York

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On deadline day, the New York Mets sent starting pitcher Clay Holmes and outfielder Tyrone Taylor to the Chicago Cubs. In exchange, they received infield prospect Jefferson Rojas, universally viewed as a top-100 prospect in baseball. It was seen as a coup for the Mets at the time because they got a potential star for a pair of upcoming free agents, at least if Holmes declined his player option.

That’s exactly what happened this week. The 33-year-old right-hander decided against taking his $12 million option to play for the Cubs in 2027 and became a free agent. Oddly enough, Holmes’ chances of re-upping with the Mets are surprisingly high.

There haven’t been any reports indicating negotiations or even contact between the two parties. However, Chelsea Janes of SNY wrote that the pitcher is ‘open’ to returning to Queens, where he became a starter ahead of the 2025 campaign and enjoyed significant success for a season and a half.

Just before he announced his decision on Thursday, Janes wrote this: "Holmes could also be a candidate for a return. As of this week, he is expected to opt out of his current deal, and people familiar with his thinking say he is open to a return to the Mets if the right deal is offered. He did, after all, thrive in Queens as a starter—so much so that he will likely receive a far bigger contract as a free agent than he probably would have if the Mets had not given him the chance to jump out of the bullpen."

Of course, Janes is spot-on when she says that Holmes is in line for a much bigger deal now that he made the transition from excellent reliever to above-average starter. That’s how much the Mets changed his career.

A Clay Holmes-Mets Reunion Makes Sense For All Parties

Right now, the Mets' projected starting five for 2027 is Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, Zach Thornton, Kodai Senga, and Sean Manaea. Tobias Myers and Tylor Megill are also under contract, but no one here is going to block Holmes from taking a spot.

We now know that Holmes is open to a reunion. Can we say the same about David Stearns and the Mets, though? With the enigmatic president of baseball operations, it’s impossible to know for sure, but there should be at least some degree of interest given how good he was in Queens.

Holmes, in his first campaign as a starter in 2025, posted a 3.53 ERA in 165.2 innings. He worked hard to develop a very solid changeup to complement his filthy sinker-sweeper combination, and that key adjustment allowed him to have a weapon against lefties. That, in turn, unlocked starting pitching for him.

Holmes was even better in 2026. With the Mets, he posted a pristine 2.39 ERA in 52.2 innings of work, and while that run-prevention number went up to 4.25 in Chicago, he finished the year with a 3.29 mark in 101.1 innings.

His changeup was already good in 2025, limiting foes to a .253 xwOBA and yielding a 30.2 percent whiff rate. Shockingly, it improved in 2026, with .208 and 31.7 percent marks, respectively. It’s a very good sign for the future, as is the fact that he earned well-above-average run value grades with all his pitch types: fastball, breaking, and off-speed.

Of course, a fractured fibula robbed him of multiple weeks while he was with the Mets, so the rust might have had something to do with his slight decline with the Cubs. When he was fully healthy, he was dominating in New York.

As it always happens in these cases, it will all come down to the price. The Mets will surely have funds to spend, but they have to be very smart with how they use them, particularly with long-term commitments. Holmes is in a position to net a significant contract; early estimates have him netting around $14-$15 million per year on a multi-year deal. That seems a little light for a pitcher of his caliber, but in any case, there’s definitely a world out there in which the Mets open the 2027 campaign with Holmes as a member of their rotation.