Mets' Disastrous First Half Makes It Impossible Not To Play What-If Game With Alonso, Nimmo and McNeil

The 2025-26 MLB offseason felt like the end of an era in Queens. The New York Mets let Edwin Diaz and Pete Alonso walk in free agency, traded Jeff McNeil for salary relief, and swapped Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. From a pure cost-to-production standpoint, the moves were all defensible, but with the Mets scuffling three months into the season, it’s time to see if they would have benefitted from holding on to their most-tenured core. 

Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Pete Alonso rank 15th, 17th, and 18th in Mets’ bWAR. They’re not franchise legends by any stretch (save for perhaps Alonso), but they formed a strong position player nucleus for the past seven seasons. In a different era, they would have probably finished their careers in Queens, but that doesn’t mean their contributions to the organization should go overlooked. 

Brandon Nimmo debuted in 2016, racking up 1,006 games, 4,365 plate appearances, and a healthy 26.0 bWAR. Those aren’t Hall of Fame figures, but they had Nimmo trending towards the Hall of Very Good, which usually gets your number retired. Despite never making an All-Star team, his career bWAR outpaces both McNeil and Alonso’s. 

Jeff McNeil debuted in 2018 as a 26-year-old rookie and hit the ground running. Over parts of eight seasons with the Mets, he amassed 22.9 bWAR, made two All-Star teams, and won a batting title. His .284 batting average with the Mets is the ninth-best in franchise history, despite playing exclusively in a low-batting average era. If he had played in the 90s, his career Mets’ average would have pushed John Olerud’s franchise record of .315. 

Jeff McNeil Batting Average Time Machine

*Based on McNeil’s +117 Batting Average plus with the Mets (17% better than league average)

Unsurprisingly, Olerud’s Mets career covered the 1997 through 1999 seasons, which saw the league post an average batting average of .268, well ahead of the .245 league-average batting average McNeil was up against over his Mets’ career. All of this is to say: There’s a case for McNeil as the Mets’ greatest bat-to-ball hitter in franchise history. However, similarly to Nimmo, he wasn’t Cooperstown-bound, but with the help of some postseason glory, his number might have earned Do Not Disturb status. 

That brings us to Pete Alonso, who debuted in 2019, won Rookie of the Year on the back of a rookie record 53 home runs, and then just kept slugging. He made five All-Star teams, hit a franchise record 264 home runs, collected MVP votes in four seasons, and amassed 23.1 bWAR. Alonso’s overall WAR figures are dinged due to his poor defense at first base and lumbering base running, but his 264 home runs were the third most in the majors over his Mets’ tenure — behind Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber — and his 132 wRC+ ranks 18th. Once again, Alonso is unlikely to make it to Cooperstown (if he reaches 500 home runs, that could change) but he was a lock to have his number retired if he spent his whole career in Queens. 

In the cold, harsh world of professional sports, what you’ve done matters far less than what is believed you will do going forward. Each of Nimmo, McNeil, and Alonso were on the wrong side of 30, and the Mets' decision to move on was likely based on this simple truth — we all get old, and sports are a young man’s game. But just for 2026, what would the Mets have looked like by keeping them around? 

The Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo trades are invariably linked. McNeil might have been a batting average savant in his prime, but the past two seasons his average had sunk below the league average. However, he was able to muster a 111 wRC+ in 2025, which made him enticing enough to the Oakland/Sacramento/Las Vegas Athletics to take on his $10 million salary, once you factor in the Mets sending $5.75 million in cash along in the deal, for 2026 with a $2 million buyout or $15.75 million team option for 2027. Essentially, the Mets cut $12 million in costs to offload McNeil and land Yordan Rodriguez, an interesting 18-year-old arm.

Sending McNeil west meant the Mets now had a gaping hole at second base, and to fill their void at the keystone, they flipped Brandon Nimmo to the Texas Rangers for Marcus Semien. While this deal wasn’t entirely motivated by money, the Mets certainly felt Carson Benge was ready for the show; it did shave off considerable long-term salary. Semien is owed $26 million in 2026 and 2027 and $20 million in 2028, while Nimmo is owed a flat $20.5 million through 2030. The gambit the Mets made was that Semien and Benge would outproduce Nimmo and McNeil, and thus far, they’ve made out maybe a tad ahead. 

*fWAR is FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement, bWAR is Baseball Reference, f/bWAR is the average of the two

Based on fWAR, the Mets are up +0.6 WAR this season due to the shift, while Baseball Reference thinks they’ve lost -0.1. A single win above replacement is generally worth around ten runs, which means we’re talking about a six run boost or a one run loss. Obviously, those hypothetical six runs would have helped the Mets, but it’s not the difference between the cellar and even fourth place in the NL East.

Hindsight being 20/20, the Mets needed to go way bigger in addressing their second base situation. Moving McNeil after a strong season appears to be a prescient decision, but acquiring Marcus Semien after a down one does not. While it would have taken prospect capital, Brendan Donovan would have been the higher upside transaction. 

However, there is another route not taken. The Mets could have retained McNeil and Nimmo and still promoted Benge. Now, that would have required Benge playing center field full time, which he would almost certainly be stretched at. When you factor in how well A.J. Ewing has played in his own rookie season, that probably wouldn’t have been an upgrade. 

The Mets' decision to trade both Nimmo and McNeil feels like rearranging deck chairs. If they have improved, it has only been marginal, and it certainly hasn’t been a roaring success. The financial savings in 2029 and 2030 should allow them to be more aggressive in free agency and trade, but money has been no object for the Mets in recent years, which is why not re-signing Pete Alonso looks so asinine in hindsight. 

To the shock of no one, Pete Alonso is having a very Pete Alonso season. He has a 129 wRC+, 21 home runs, and has been worth 2.3 fWAR and 2.0 bWAR. And his full season numbers undersell how well he has been playing for the past two and a half months. After a slow April, Alonso has a 147 wRC+ since the start of May. Yes, $31 million a season is a lot for a one-dimensional slugger, but power is expensive for a reason. 

While Alonso has had an excellent season, the real reason the Mets surely rue their decision to let him walk has been the play of their first basemen. The Mets have garnered -0.6 fWAR from their first basemen, who have combined for a wRC+ of 89. Somehow, that wRC+ only ranks 26th, while they’re second-to-last in fWAR. If they had simply retained Alonso, they would have benefitted from a 2.9 fWAR swing. 

To put in perspective how damaging Alonso’s loss has been, the Mets are 29th in position player fWAR at 5.8. Simply swapping their first base production with Alonso’s would increase their position player fWAR by 50%. 

When you add it all up, moving on from Alonso, McNeil, and Nimmo is not the reason the Mets’ season has fallen apart. Trading McNeil and Nimmo for Semien and Benge has basically been a wash, and while Alonso would have dramatically improved their first base production, they’d still be fielding a below-average offense. 

There’s also the financial component to consider. The Mets, by not re-signing Alonso and trading away McNeil and Nimmo, saved $34.5 million this season and then $51.5 million in 2029 and 2030. Unfortunately, the Mets completely whiffed on their offseason spending as Bo Bichette has been a massive disappointment thus far, but long term, they should be able to reinvest those savings into players in their prime years. 

The Mets’ decision to cut the cord on their three most-tenured players has not paid off as they had hoped. However, their exodus isn’t why they’ve spent 2026 wandering in the desert. The Mets are just having a season from hell, and they’re better positioned for the future than they would have been if they had kept those three around. At the end of the day, the guys who are here just have to play better.