Forecasts for Fifteen: Jenrry Mejia

[Edgy MD]

Took a while to cycle around to me, but I spent the better part of last year as your Met pitcher designated with the role of closing out wins. That role may cycle away from me yet again. I don't know. My hair, though, is a subject that is less rife with confusion.



Listen, I don't know if I'm the answer for you guys or anything, but the last time a pitcher as young as I am saved as many games for the Mets as I did last year was... never. So what do you think you'll get this year?

[Guest themetfairy]

Hoping for a big year from the young man.

[Frayed Knot]

I won't go as far to say that he was given a pass last year, but he remained in the good graces of the fan base despite becoming VERY hittable as the year wound down: BA/OBA/SLG-Against = .286/.346/.395 in the 2nd half to go along with a season-long WHiP of barely under 1.5
NYM fans have tried to run closers out of town who rarely if ever had short stretches as ragged as that much less full seasons. Being young & homegrown & cheap vs imported & expensive has a lot to do with the differing attitudes but that'll only take one so far and, with several other options available, the leash given him by the fans and (hopefully) by the manager won't be very long unless he shows A LOT more goodness early in the year. This is a worm which can turn very quickly.

[Edgy MD]

He had the twin advantages last year of (1) getting in his appearances where he had enough of a cushion to weather it (so his uglier , and (2) getting hit harder in August as attention was drifting elsewhere anyhow.

He'll be on a shorter leash with the fans as 2015 opens.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, during his 13 appearances in August (coming in with no outs/none-on in all but one of them) he had twice as many games where he gave up [u:3j3ky48n]multiple hits[/u:3j3ky48n] (8) as he did where he had 1-2-3 innings (4). The good news is he wasn't walking people, but that's not enough to make up for multiple hits in eight games out of 13.

Yet Armando would take more abuse for simply going to a 2-0 count that Jenrry did during that entire run. And, yes, circumstances were different, but circumstances change.

[Ceetar]

he was also hurt for a lot of the second half.

Personally I wouldn't have removed him from the rotation but given the amount of starters the Mets seemingly have healthy I don't see him getting back in there even in an emergency basis.

With so many good relievers and Parnell coming back and seemingly likely to be grumpy if he doesn't get to close I can see this being a mess, though personally I'd use Mejia (and Familia) for 3-inning saves or 2+ inning saves.

It always feels tough projecting relievers.

Let's say 75 IP, 2.1 ERA, 85 Ks, 28 BB, 25 Saves.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Mejia may have issues but counting on Bobby Parnell to solve anything to me seems like a gigantic risk. I know the Mets talk a good game about the guy but he had neck surgery and a blown-out elbow in the past two seasons. Anything we get from him is going to be something.

Mejia's health I suppose is also a question but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt and say he does aight.

4-3, 36 saves, 2.50

[Ceetar]

not counting on Parnell to solve anything, I don't think there's even a problem to solve, I just think he does come back and does pitch and that creates some friction.

[Edgy MD]

If he pulls off that 2.10 ERA, he'll be likely to get a lot more than 25 saves, unless the Mets really do kick him aside for eight weeks in favor of Bobby Parnell, which I agree seems awful wishful.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: If he pulls off that 2.10 ERA, he'll be likely to get a lot more than 25 saves, unless the Mets really do kick him aside for eight weeks in favor of Bobby Parnell, which I agree seems awful wishful.

or the Mets bludgeon everyone 18-4.

[Edgy MD]

I look forward to the 18-4 games.

[Frayed Knot]

Forget Parnell, I'm thinking that Familia is the best option for closing - excepting of course the idea about the best REAL option for closer is the one where you name no closer at all.

[Theoldmole]

And as always, I'm good with actually matching pitchers to situations. I'm not locked into the idea that there has to be one closer with a capital C, or the idea that if a guy comes in and gets lights out in the 8th inning, you automatically have to lift him for the 9th.

[MFS62]

I'm not sure he will be the closer for the entire season. He'll start the season in that role, then I feel TC will see if Parnell has regained his stuff and use him there. Mejia will have 18-20 saves with a 3.31 ERA until Parnell retakes the closer role.

Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

67 G, 67 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 16/19 Svs, 66 K/22 BB, 4 HR

[Guest d'Kong76]

Very successful 2015 campaign, will be closer 80% of the chances.

[Edgy MD]

Kong is doing a good job getting his forecasts in place in these threads.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Four-pronged fork...
a> enjoying what posters predict
b> acquainting and re-acquainting myself with org spots
c> bumping and ocd'ng on order of things.. which is my nature
d> after today, there's still no Conforto thread yet?

[dgwphotography]

d'Kong76 wrote: Four-pronged fork... a> enjoying what posters predict b> acquainting and re-acquainting myself with org spots c> bumping and ocd'ng on order of things.. which is my nature d> after today, there's still no Conforto thread yet?

I'm hoping to see Conforto in AA this year...

[Edgy MD]

d'Kong76 wrote: Four-pronged fork... a> enjoying what posters predict b> acquainting and re-acquainting myself with org spots c> bumping and ocd'ng on order of things.. which is my nature d> after today, there's still no Conforto thread yet?

That's a good point. I just put 'em up in alphabetical order, including only guys who were in major league camp. Comforto wasn't/isn't but got floated over to the big league side in order to round out the roster for one of them split-squad games, but he sure looks like he belongs there now.

It used to seem like a default honor, that first-round draftees would get invited to the big league camp the next season, especially if they've had some college. But it hasn't been that way under Sandy.

[smg58]

Pretty decent numbers: 2.80 ERA in 65 IP, Parnell and/or Familia will have to be really good to unseat him.

[TransMonk]

Less hair = more winning?

[Frayed Knot]

smg58 wrote: Pretty decent numbers: 2.80 ERA in 65 IP, Parnell and/or Familia will have to be really good to unseat him.

I dunno. After a season of more hits than innings pitched, an only OK 2.5/1 ratio of K/BB, a .345 OBA-Against, all of which resulted in a near 1.5 WHiP, I tend to think he was a bit lucky with that low ERA and I wouldn't count on his penchant for stranding runners as a repeatable "skill".

The 14 separate outings in August & September alone last year where he allowed multiple baserunners (well more than half the time) was enough to scare me into losing confidence until he proves otherwise.

[TransMonk]

I think "closer" could end up being a major weakness on this team. We have a few options but I have doubts about all of them living up to what they've done in the past.

[Frayed Knot]

I'm not sure I'd think of it as a weakness so much as just a case of no one guy with a track record of being dominant in that spot for more than a short period even though the pen taken as a whole could be a strength. I guess that alone could be seen as A definition of weakness, but it's also why this team would be a perfect one (IMO) to not assign anyone as the go-to closer as there's no one who was brought in and paid big bucks specifically for the role and, while several can make some claim to the throne, each has drawbacks as well.
- Mejia is the "incumbent" but didn't pitch well down the stretch last season (had the team not been out of the race in Aug/Sept that ugly wart would have been noticed much more than it was) and hasn't had a good spring
- Parnell was the man before that but isn't has now missed an entire season and as yet isn't ready to go
- Familia probably had the best season last year but has that 'has never done it' label stamped on his forehead

I'd love to see a mix-n-match deal based on: who's hot - who's rested - who matches up best but no one (not this manager or any others that I know of) seem willing to want to experiment in that way.

[Ceetar]

I think we might see a little different managing from Terry this year.

Certainly not suggesting he's going to get that innovative, but I think I expect to see a lot less patience in general.

He's always been a manager to fall in love, and I think this could lean more towards him deciding to say keep Familia in the 9th if he blew 'em away in the 8th.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'll tell ya what: If Mejia struggles and needs less-demanding assignments there's always Rafael Montero to switch roles with. Familia too of course.

If everything works out the way I would guess it might (Gee is only 'eh' as a starter, Matz and Syndergaard kick ass in AAA, Mejia struggles, Black and Parnell are question marks healthwise and Familia is solid as a 8th inning type fireman) you free up the logjam of potential 5th starters and get Mejia into a role where if he's gonna get hit hard its where we can most afford it without disrupting what else works. Plenty of moving parts but part of a Big Picture kinda scenario, which is how the club has been doing things generally.

Other than his time with the club last year at least, Montero doesn't walk guys or give up HRs, and appears healthy. I read somewhere where they said he "badly" tipped pitches last season; although I know that's one of those things they say when a guy struggles sometimes.

[Edgy MD]

Montero would have to get past the "lacks lights-out stuff" label. Not to many control pitchers get the chance unless the team is desperate.