"Outfield Insurance"

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: I'd start Abreu as rarely as possible both because of his age and his (lack of) OF prowess. Besides, the good thing about using him late in games is that he'll take a walk as well as anyone and that tends to be a skill you don't lose with age.

True, his BB% is still kind of ridiculous despite his plummeting XBH% and rising K%.

But that was 2 years ago. Last time he had an above average XBH% was in 2010. Why would you even throw him balls?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Well, the storyline I'm sure you've followed is that Abreu lost weight, regained some shape and impressed Hudgens as a member of his Venezuelan winter league team.

I mean, it's not as though the Mets are complete idiots. There's a great chance it won't work out, but a reason they believe it might. Think of Cleveland with Giambi or the A's when they gather in old bags like Mike Piazza and Dave Justice. Sometimes it works out.

[Edgy MD]

Why would you even throw him balls?

Because extra-base-hit percentages have a way of feeding walk rates, and vice versa. With regards to good hitters, one is very often happening because the other is not.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Why would you even throw him balls? Because extra-base-hit percentages have a way of feeding walk rates, and vice versa. With regards to good hitters, one is very often happening because the other is not.

if he's still a good hitter, which is what I'm questioning. Last time he was even significantly above average was 2010 and all the other stats are falling off too. He's walking more but still getting on base less. batting eye isn't a skill that fades, but pitchers only need to nibble when they worry that a mistake will result in you hurting them. When pitchers realize you're not going to do that, they don't need to be as careful and no matter how good your eye is, you can't walk if they don't throw balls.

Sure, sometimes it works out. Obviously the Mets know what they're doing and have more information than me. But this feels more like Rick Ankiel than it does Jason Giambi or even Gary Sheffield. Both those guys are at least Borderline HoFers.

Abreu.. It just doesn't seem like he's got enough upside to make up for the likelihood that he's just done.

[Edgy MD]

And yet, despite your analysis, people do walk him.

You know, it feels more like Raul Ibanez to me. But if it doesn't work out, they move on quickly and without remorse. Even Ankiel was merely an inexpensive bridge to an internal option. Getting a defensively challenged veteran to take a hack with runners on base every now and then is fine as long as you don't commit two years to Julio Franco. The world needs pinch-hitters, too.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: And yet, despite your analysis, people do walk him. You know, it feels more like Raul Ibanez to me. But if it doesn't work out, they move on quickly and without remorse. Even Ankiel was merely an inexpensive bridge to an internal option. Getting a defensively challenged veteran to take a hack with runners on base every now and then is fine as long as you don't commit two years to Julio Franco. The world needs pinch-hitters, too.

I have no idea where Ibanez pulled out that season from last year in Seattle, but he hadn't been particularly good in years either. I guess that's the goal, but it's not particularly lofty.

Abreu hasn't walked in over a year and even then he was pretty much only walking. 14 hits, 12 singles, 12 walks the last three months.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy MD wrote: You know, it feels more like Raul Ibanez to me.

I was hoping Ibanez-plus-walks, too, though I think it's probably more like latter-day-Lenny-Harris-plus-walks.

[Frayed Knot]

Quickie prediction Q here -- Number of plate appearances for Bobby Abreu this season in a NYM uniform?
Let's group the guesses to one of the following:
<50
50-100
101-150
151-200
201+

[Edgy MD]

50-100 if only just.

He'll get a couple of homers early and that'll keep him around longer perhaps than it should.

Maybe.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I'm feeling... um... "optimistic."

120 PAs or so, with 1-2 really good weeks.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

100

[Frayed Knot]

I'm going with 51-100 and only a handful of starts and likely doesn't finish the season.

The best "outfield insurance" we could have right now is for Lagares to get back and push EYJ and his one-for-last-eighteen-ness (or whatever it is) into a sub role.
And, yeah, I know that Granderson is like 0-fer his last 89 or something but he's the one getting played because he's the one getting paid, plus he has an actual track record of goodness.

[Ceetar]

16.