Prospect Lists 2012-13

[Frayed Knot]

It's that time of year again. And by nice coincidence, several of the major sites that follow such stuff all have their NYM lists popping out at about the same time.


BA came out on Friday with its usual Top-10 list along with some 'best' categories and various long-term (and highly speculative) lineup projections.
The downside is that their list is just an ordinal reading with little basis for comparison among each NYM prospect much less compared to the league as a whole, and that their on-line discussion plus scouting reports are available only to subscribers.





John Sickels unveiled his list this morning and takes the liberty of assuming that the Dickey deal goes through so treats both d'Arnaud & Syndergaard as if already NYM property. He also includes a thumbnail sketch of his top 20 with grades, plus an overall review of the system as a whole.
That the comments section below featuring the prospect nerds who frequent his place spends most of its time arguing over who wasn't included on the list but should have been is a mostly good sign IMO. Nothing worse than straining just to include 20 worthwhile subjects.

Excerpts:

1) Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade A-: Borderline B+.
He's not perfect, but D'Arnaud is either the best catching prospect in baseball or the second-best behind Mike Zunino. Could use a bit more polish with his throwing and his plate discipline and immediate stardom is unlikely, but overall he's the complete package. Don't expect him to be Mike Piazza, but he should be a long-term solution.

2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+.
Aside from some control wobbles in Triple-A, he had a terrific year. Projects as a number two starter. Can he duplicate what Matt Harvey did? It's possible.

3) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+.
He's ahead of where Wheeler was at age 20. Strong sinking fastball, good changeup, breaking stuff coming around, solid command, good body, good makeup, strong sabermetric profile. Just needs to stay healthy. I like him more than many people do, but I really like him.






Baseball Prospectus has the Mets next on their list so I expect to see that in the next day or two, although they too will hide most of the guts behind their pay wall.

[Edgy MD]

What's interesting is Mejia is either forgotten, dismissed, or considered graduated from prospect status. Hard to figure out what kind of asset he is at this point.

[Frayed Knot]

Mejia, with 140 days of ML experience, is considered graduated out of the prospect realm. As, obviously, is Harvey.
I think Sickels mentions Mejia in response to a question somewhere in the comments section of his piece if you feel like wading through all the petty discussions to find it.

But, yeah, I don't have a good handle on where he is or where I think he's going either at this point.

[Edgy MD]

I have him slated for the 2013 bullpen, but he could he's either a starter or reliever, in Las Vegas or New York, and he's either good or bad. No possibility seems more likely than the other.

[Frayed Knot]

BP weighs in:

Wheeler
d'Arnaud
Syndergaard
Fullmer
Flores
Cecchini
Tapia
Familia
Nimmo
Montero



And a composite of sorts among the three lists (BA, BP & Sickels)
1 - Wheeler
2 - d'Arnaud
3 - Syndergaard
4 - Flores
5 - Fullmer
6 - Cecchini
7 - Nimmo
8 - Familia
9 - Montero
10 - Mateo
11 - Tapia
12 - Mozzoni


The good news, much better depth and overall quality.
The bad news, 8 of the 12 are RHPs and, of the hitters, only d'Arnaud and (maybe late in the season) Flores have a shot at contributing to the big club this year - or even next year for that matter.

[Edgy MD]

Only one from the dazzling 2012 Brooklyn rotation of Cessa/Ynoa/Lara/Mateo/Robles/Hilario. Were they all pitching below their age level or something? Robles had a WHIP of 0.784. He's given up three homers in 235.1 innings as a professional, and none in 72.2 innings last year.

Plus, wherever he went in Brooklyn, he left a trail of crumbs. What's a guy gotta do?!

[Frayed Knot]

Which all goes to show the limitations of a small and purely ordinal list. Some years there might only be six or seven worthy candidates on a top-10, others there could be fourteen or fifteen deserving ones.

Sickels mentions several of your crew: Lara, Robles, Ynoa, along with Ceciliani & Matt Reynolds under his "other C+" players at the end of his top-20 -- and remember that he considers a C+ grade to denote an above average prospect. Again, that those guys didn't make the cut even on his longer list is a tribute to a deeper system and if you're forced to leave some of those similar type players off you start with those further down the totem pole.

One of the reasons I like reading Sickels about this sort of stuff (even though his site is filled with fantasy geeks) is that, rather than pretending that a list putting player A above B nails him as unarguably better, he'll admit that many of the players in the fat part of the curve are pretty much interchangeable and not to take the exact order too seriously.

[Vic Sage]

Edgy MD wrote: What's interesting is Mejia is either forgotten, dismissed, or considered graduated from prospect status. Hard to figure out what kind of asset he is at this point.

in the comments section, Sickels is asked about Mejia, and he says that, if he were still eligible, he'd rate him a C+ type prospect. For what that's worth.

[Edgy MD]

A lot, I think. Very curious to see if he's looking like a starter or a penboy at the start of spring training.

[Edgy MD]

Hey, Cover Boy!

[Frayed Knot]

The first of the Top-100 lists are out with Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com revealing his:

Noah Syndergaard #29
Zack Wheeler #8
Travis d'Arnaud #6


I'm surprised to see d'Arnaud up [u:22ymud9l]THAT[/u:22ymud9l] high. I was expecting maybe high-teens/lower-20s
No other NYMs in top 100

[Edgy MD]

Pretty staggering to think that, had the seemingly trade-averse Alderson not made those two big deals he did, the Mets would (or so it seems) have been shut out of the top 100.

[Frayed Knot]

Yup, this list anyway.
I suspect Flores might get himself onto the back end of some lists this winter - but certainly all our top guys this year came via the trade route.

Of course one could also argue that had Santana & Gee not gone out at virtually the same time then Harvey wouldn't have been called up so early and so he'd be near the top of the prospect pile heading into this season. Such are the fickle nature of these lists.
FWIW, John Sickels ranked the Mets as having the 12th best system this year although admitting at the same time that he finds such ordinal lists to be of dubious help at best.

[Edgy MD]

Oh, sure, that's why I qualify with "seemingly." Santana and Gee and Pelfrey don't all go down, maybe the season isn't lost. Maybe Harvey gets held back. Maybe Dickulous doesn't get traded.

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: The first of the Top-100 lists are out with Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com revealing his: Noah Syndergaard #29 Zack Wheeler #8 Travis d'Arnaud #6

Baseball America:
Wheeler = #11
d'Arnaud = #23
Syndergaard = #54

[Edgy MD]

I figure d'Arnaud being a catcher with knee injury history should curb at least a little of anybody's ranking enthusiasm for him.

[Frayed Knot]

A little bit anyway, although folks should take note as to whether the injuries are flukey or look like they're leaning toward chronic.

This catcher prospect smackdown discusses his strengths, weaknesses and injuries in conjunction with those of Seattle prospect Mike Zunino. Those two are considered the best catching prospects right now, in which order is subject to discussion.

[Edgy MD]

I figure that no knee injury ever completely disappears from a guy's ledger.

[ashie62]

I'm more concerned about D'Arnauds disc issue from 2010. I hope these injuries aren't the reason the kid is on his third organization at such a young age.

[Frayed Knot]

Ashie62 wrote: I'm more concerned about D'Arnauds disc issue from 2010. I hope these injuries aren't the reason the kid is on his third organization at such a young age.

Considering that the two times he's been traded have both been for CY award winners it's not exactly like he's being dumped like last night's fish leftovers.
Besides, a decent pct of the prospects who do make it do so in their 2nd or 3rd organization.

[ashie62]

I'd like to see D'Arnaud prosper as a leadoff hitter..

[Edgy MD]

I'd like to see Niese prosper as a cleanup hitter, too, but the number of catchers who've prospered from the leadoff position to any degree is about as high as the number of lefthanded starting pitchers who turned into sluggers batting fourth.

[ashie62]

Thats why it would be such an edge...Didn't Stearns do it???

[Edgy MD]

He certainly could have, at least on occasion, but no, he never did. Not even once, according to the IMDB. Jason Kendall is pretty much the only catcher in history to gain any traction as a leadoff hitter.

Catchers with 20 or More Games Batting Leadoff in a Season

119 Jason Kendall 2004
90 Jason Kendall 2006
75 Jason Kendall 2005
52 Jason Kendall 2001
51 Jason Kendall 2002
43 Rollie Hemsley 1939
32 Paul Lo Duca 2001
29 Butch Wynegar 1980
24 Kurt Suzuki 2008
20 Russell Martin 2008
17 Russell Martin 2010

Considering nothing in the scouting reports indicates that his speed is any better than typical for a catcher, and his plate discipline is behind his other batting skills, I think it's a safe bet to say that you're gonna be disappointed if you're hoping for him to prosper in that role.

[ashie62]

How about a nice career as a plus bat Catcher.

Paul LoDuca led of for the Mets briefly, and this Travis? Well, he is no LoDuca!

[Edgy MD]

Lo Duca never batted leadoff for the Mets either. But yeah, if d'Arnaud maximizes what he is, we're in good shape.

[ashie62]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7999

Catchers batting leadoff..

[Frayed Knot]

Baseball Prospectus:
Zack Wheeler - 6
Travis d'Arnaud - 15
Noah Syndergaard - 28
Michael Fullmer - 98

[smg58]

Ashie62 wrote: Thats why it would be such an edge...Didn't Stearns do it???

After looking back at his stats a couple of weeks ago, I wouldn't argue with anybody who said that Stearns ought to have led off.

[nymr83]

interesting that BP has Fullmer, a guy I've never even heard of, 98th overall while having Nimmo as the Mets' 9th best prospect while Law has Nimmo 4th and barely missing his top 100 and doest even mention Fullmer.