IGT 5/28: PHUCK PHILLY!

[Edgy MD]

I don't know why Keith and Ron don't kill Terry (and every other manager) for this. Torre, of all people, seemed to understand it. If your job is to win, the redemption of the guys one the back end of your roster has to take a back seat to that. You owe it to the fans, you owe it to the owners, you owe it to yourself.

It seems important for Terry to build up loyalty and trust with his charges. But Casey Stengel had a different attitude about that. In the 1950s, he was constantly working pitchers not named Ford or Reynolds into and out of rotation based on who was performing. He expressed his loyalty to his players not by making sure everybody got to play, but by trying to put them in the best situation to win the game, to give their efforts the best chance of not being in vain.

Let a reliever pitching well go two, three, four(!) innings. Have another guy ready, but for God's sake, don't use who you don't hafta. Maybe I'm romanticizing the past, but I can't imagine Davey Johnson putting Tom Gorman in that game.

This is my hobgoblin. Please forgive forgive the carryon.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: This is my hobgoblin. Please forgive forgive the carryon.

extra carryon will cost you.


for the most part I agree with you. I'm not positive it's the best way to go, but I do have a desire not to see effective relievers removed just because it's a new inning, but then they're not exactly working up their arms to do that regularly and there seems to be a sense that it's better to have more bodies available than alternate days. Also, most pens have Acosta types at the back end, and using up your good reliever or two on one day may mean they need a day or two and you're stuck with the third or fourth best guy the next game when you could end up needing the better relievers. Especially when you're down by a run and the game may be lost no matter who you use (hence Acosta or Francisco)

The other thing is that this is another one of those things that's going to end up advocating the DH. Wanting relievers to go more innings means letting them hit, letting them hit is clearly a disaster because almost no one actually expects pitchers to work on that part of the game even though it's part of the game.

[Frayed Knot]

Bottom line is we got a bad (or at least erratic) outing from the starter, bad days from the 3 & 4 hitters, a bad day by the defense (courtesy of those same 3 & 4 hitters) and a bad day from most of the bullpen.
Not gonna win a lot of games that way.

One of the over-looked plays was Wright coming off the bag during a potential force at 2nd. He seemed to think Parnell was going to 1st on the tapped come-backer and then was unprepared for the throw when it came his way. If he hung on the bag not only would he have gotten the force but probably the DP as well. Instead that runner became the go-ahead run.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Also, most pens have Acosta types at the back end, and using up your good reliever or two on one day may mean they need a day or two and you're stuck with the third or fourth best guy the next game when you could end up needing the better relievers. Especially when you're down by a run and the game may be lost no matter who you use (hence Acosta or Francisco)

I think experience shows you burn through your pen faster using them one inning at a time rather than two.

[nymr83]

I don't think there is any evidence that two innings on Monday will burn a guy out faster than one inning monday and one inning tuesday. If anything the guy who threw two on monday and was unavailable tuesday spent less pitches warming up.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, that's what I'm saying.

I mean, we can mine the data but only if you're not satisfied with a simple thought experiment. Two managers have two guys of relatively equal bullpenning skills and applicabliity. The first guy has two guys named Heilman and Sanchez. The second manager has two guys named Wendell and White.

Heilman and Sanchez have each pitched 80 innings over 80 games.
Wendell and White have each pitched 80 innings over 40 games.

You're near the end of the season and are fighting for a playoff spot. Who has the more taxed pair of relievers?

[Ceetar]

what's the pitch count? What's the recent workload? all those play in.

But again, I agree with you but I think it's more complicated than 'just use them'. These guys are preparing for one inning for the most part, and aren't accustomed to the feel of their arm and the amount of warm up required to sit for 10-20 minutes and then get back up and pitch on only 8 warm up throws.

Leaving aside the pinch hitting wrinkle, I would agree that they should use Ramon Ramirez for multiple innings one day and then Bobby Parnell the next.

I think the box managers put themselves in is when you get Bobby up in the 7th and he struggles that day. You'd want to go to Ramon in that situation but probably can't if you had him throw 45 pitches the day before over 2.1. Now you have to use your third or fourth best guy.

It does make sense to me. Use Ramon for 2.1 and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. Maybe Gee throws a CG or 8 dominant innings. maybe you score 30. But one of the biggest things managers get criticized for is bullpen use, so they naturally retreat to these defined roles and narrow usage schemas.

I do think there is some value to 'defined' roles though, but that's in a preparation way like if Francisco was randomly summoned in the 5th inning of a game. He's mentally set for the 9th, meaning he may still be playing cards in the clubhouse and not having gone through stretches and warmups and the things he'd probably do in the 7th and 8th as he prepares. But if you tell him 'hey, we may use you first if a starter doesn't go long' he'll make sure he's loose before that.

[Edgy MD]

I would think it obvious.

Ceetar wrote: what's the pitch count?

The same.

Ceetar wrote: What's the recent workload?

Over the course of a season, the pitchers working the same number of innings in half the games typically get twice the rest between appearances that the other two get.

I think the box managers put themselves in is when you get Bobby up in the 7th and he struggles that day. You'd want to go to Ramon in that situation but probably can't if you had him throw 45 pitches the day before over 2.1. Now you have to use your third or fourth best guy.

Yes, your options diminish if people fail. But now they use their fourth-best guy almost as a matter or course. And their seventh-best guy in a one-run game. Disastrous.

The way we do it now, rather than set up a safety net if a guy fails, actually courts failure, and leaves the closer more likely to never have a safety net.

[Ceetar]

I think the Acosta use yesterday is a different usage pattern anyway. I think Collins, especially if the offense is ever going to wake up/stay healthy together, needs to treat 1-run deficits more like tie games, because the Mets WILL score more runs. Just look at how many 0 ERA relievers the Mets have beat on recently.