Eastern Lineups

[Edgy MD]

A dispute over the viability of the Met offense came up in the outfield thread. I had actually done some wrestling with this question. Giving guys five points for being the class of the division at his position and one point for hauling up the rear, the Phils seem to have the best O. The Mets came in fourth, but it's really the Phils and everybody else. (I don't think the lineups have changed much.)

A couple of points:

• Most of these projections come from the Bill James projection system. Where I couldn't find projections from him for an athlete or two, I tried to draw from some other authoritative system offered by Baseball Ingestus or Fartgaphs.
  
  
  
• We're arguing about runs in the outfield thread, but here we're measuring the everyday lineups in their totality, offense and defense included.
  
  
  
• Obviously, the final tallies don't account for the degree of difference between two players. The top guy earns his team five points and the next guy earns four whether there are 2.0 or 0.2 WAR between them. You hope most of that comes out in the wash, but I didn't count that. (Maybe somebody would like to add the raw WAR up.)
  
  
  
• Clearly, Washington could sign Fielder tomorrow and invalidate this whole thing.
  
  
  
• I tried to arbitrarily tweek the numbers up or down a few decimal points based on the quality of the available backups, especially if the guy is only projected to play 120 or so games.
  
  
  
• The Mets actually look better than a lot of teams healthwise, being younger and with a chronic guy like Murphy never having been operated on. But who knows if Wright and Davis come back whole. And so much of these health factors go out the window once the shooting starts (to mix a metaphor).
  
  
  
• I nonetheless feel like the Phils are kinda maybe getting shorted at first, with Howard out for at least the first month, but having Jim Thome and Ty Wigginton to bail him out.
  
  
  
• Strange in general to see such low projections at first. The Mets win by virtue of having far and away the best fielder, I think.
  
  
  
• So much depends on thinks breaking well healthwise for the Phils. They may project the highest, but they are easily older and have they're firstbaseman beginning the season broken and rightfield and leftfield recovering from herniae.
  
  
  
• Sucks that Duda is so outclassed by the competition in right, but his defense drops him out of the running right out of the gate. I guess right is the opposite of first. In both cases, the glove separates the Mets from the field, but in different directions.
  
  
  
• Bay, on the other hand, is barely on the map in left. Outfield doesn't look to be our strong suit. (Wasn't in 2000, either.)
  
  
  
• I think the Braves are going with Pastornicky at short, but they've signed two experienced shortstops, so they may open with one of them. I kinda hope that they do.
  
  
  
• Basing the projections on what players in similar stages of their careers have done in the past, they kind of account for psychological variables, but I wonder how much. Do Heyward's number reflect just how miserable it must be to be about to rocket to stardom and have an awful sophomore year? Moreover, there are broader context psychological factors at play:
  
  • The Braves' utter collapse;
    
  • The Mets' financial disarray;
    
  • The Marlins' financial rebirth;
    
  • The Nats' ramping up the pitching;
    
  • The Mets' new walls.

  
  Who knows?
  
  
  [*]While I tried to factor in the backups, where most relevant, I haven't bothered ranking benches. That's beyond my pay grade. I'll just add that some teams have invested in them more than others.
  
  
  [*]Ryan Zimmerman is the best player in the division? Really?

Anyhow, here's your National League East.

Team	Catcher	AVG	OBP	SLG	OpS	WAR	Rank
Atlanta	McCann	.276	.360	.484	.844	5.3	1
Miami	Buck	.239	.309	.409	.718	2.0	5
New York	Thole/Nickeas	.278/.214	.353/.286	.369/.304	.722/.590	2.5	4
Philadelphia	Ruiz	.271	.360	.400	.760	2.8	3
Washington	Ramos/Flores	.270/.209	.326/.305	.419/.314	.745/.619	3.3	2
Team	First Base	AVG	OBP	SLG	OpS	WAR	Rank
Atlanta	Freeman	.286	.350	.459	.809	2.4	4
Miami	Sanchez	.276	.360	.452	.812	2.9	2
New York	Davis	.288	.377	.504	.881	4.1	1
Philadelphia	Howard	.266	.360	.525	.885	2.5	3
Washington	Laroche/Marrero	.255/.280	.333/.339	.445/.400	.778/.739	1.3	5
Team	Second Base	AVG	OBP	SLG	OpS	WAR	Rank
Atlanta	Uggla	.251	.334	.473	.807	3.6	4
Miami	Infante	.291	.335	.401	.736	3.0	5
New York	Murphy/Turner	.302/.271	.355./.335	.456/.369	.811/.704	3.8	2
Philadelphia	Ultley	.280	.375	.475	.850	5.3	1
Washington	Espinosa	.248	.329	.445	.774	3.8	2
Team	Third Base	AVG	OBP	SLG	OpS	WAR	Rank
Atlanta	Jones	.278	.378	.461	.839	3.6	4
Miami	Ramirez	.298	.379	.489	.868	5.1	3
New York	Wright	.286	.375	.487	.862	5.3	2
Philadelphia	Polanco	.284	.337	.370	.707	2.7	5
Washington	Zimmerman	.291	.363	.486	.849	7.0	1
Team	Shortstop	AVG	OBP	SLG	OpS	WAR	Rank
Atlanta	Pastornicky	.294	.329	.374	.703	3.0	3
Miami	Reyes	.303	.358	.447	.805	4.8	1
New York	Tejada	.256	.330	.323	.653	2.6	4
Philadelphia	Rollins	.262	.328	.417	.745	3.7	2
Washington	Desmond	.268	.317	.394	.711	2.0	5
Team	Left Field	AVG	OBP	SLG	OpS	WAR	Rank
Atlanta	Prado	.289	.339	.423	.762	2.7	3
Miami	Morrison	.265	.363	.475	.838	3.2	2
New York	Bay	.257	.355	.436	.791	1.9	5
Philadelphia	Mayberry/Brown	.275/.275	.313/.355	.439/.455	.752/.810	3.5	1
Washington	Morse	.291	.347	.505	.852	2.5	4
Team	Center Field	AVG	OBP	SLG	OpS	WAR	Rank
Atlanta	Bourn	.273	.339	.353	.692	4.1	2
Miami	Bonifacio	.276	.338	.354	.692	3.4	4
New York	Torres	.255	.332	.405	.737	3.5	3
Philadelphia	Victorino	.277	.344	.441	.785	5.0	1
Washington	Bernadina	.261	.327	.399	.726	2.5	5
Team	Right Field	AVG	OBP	SLG	OpS	WAR	Rank
Atlanta	Heyward	.269	.374	.457	.831	5.0	2
Miami	Stanton	.273	.366	.568	.934	5.5	1
New York	Duda	.279	.364	.488	.852	3.0	5
Philadelphia	Pence	.292	.349	.486	.835	4.9	3
Washington	Werth	.259	.360	.451	.811	4.5	4
						Team	Total
						Philadelphia	29
						Atlanta	25
						Miami	25
						New York	22
						Washington	20

[smg58]

In terms of WAR, we're about three wins behind the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins, and on an even keel with the Nats. Apparently, the difference could be made up simply by Duda being close to average in right field. In other words, I hope he's worked like hell on his defense over the offseason.

Bay's bat showing up would erase the difference, too.

[Edgy MD]

Only spots in the division profiling as below 2.0 WAR is the Mets in left (1.9) and the Nats at first (1.3).

They really should take a second look at their Prince Fielder Fund. Either of the The Phils backups at first could do better than that.

The Mets, of course, more or less have firstbasemen at catcher, second, and right.

[Ceetar]

see, now this list at least makes sense to me, unlike the ESPN one. Even if I disagree with the value placed on defense. Or more specifically, the expectations of defense.

I think at the end of the day, Duda will be the second most valuable RFer, but it'll be close with Stanton.

Left field also looks up for grabs.I don't think I'd be surprised if any of those five came out on top. Well a little if it's Bay maybe.

[Edgy MD]

That's a big assertion. But I think the WAR projections can be pretty volatile, as they don't come directly from James, I think, but from fan projections informed by James' projections. They're informed fans, but the biases probably don't cancel each other out.

[Guest attgig]

in terms of just summing up wars:

[table:3lpwyqu6][tr:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]philly[/td:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]30.4[/td:3lpwyqu6][/tr:3lpwyqu6]
[tr:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]miami[/td:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]29.9[/td:3lpwyqu6][/tr:3lpwyqu6]
[tr:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]atl[/td:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]29.7[/td:3lpwyqu6][/tr:3lpwyqu6]
[tr:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]nationals[/td:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]26.9[/td:3lpwyqu6][/tr:3lpwyqu6]
[tr:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]mets[/td:3lpwyqu6][td:3lpwyqu6]26.7[/td:3lpwyqu6][/tr:3lpwyqu6][/table:3lpwyqu6]

[Guest attgig]

Ceetar wrote: Left field also looks up for grabs.I don't think I'd be surprised if any of those five came out on top. Well a little if it's Bay maybe.

WOW! a bit of reality in Ceetar! (though just a little :-P)

[Ceetar]

attgig wrote: Left field also looks up for grabs.I don't think I'd be surprised if any of those five came out on top. Well a little if it's Bay maybe. WOW! a bit of reality in Ceetar! (though just a little :-P)

It's not reality either way if it hasn't happened yet. If you really think about it, it's sort of insane to have spirited arguments about future events. Are we all Miss Cleo's around here?

[Guest attgig]

YA MON!

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Ceetar wrote: Left field also looks up for grabs.I don't think I'd be surprised if any of those five came out on top. Well a little if it's Bay maybe. WOW! a bit of reality in Ceetar! (though just a little :-P) It's not reality either way if it hasn't happened yet. If you really think about it, it's sort of insane to have spirited arguments about future events. Are we all Miss Cleo's around here?

Bullshit. It's awesome.

[Ceetar]

I didn't say it wasn't awesome.