In-Draft Thread - 2011

[Guest Edgy DC]

Mets go with Cory Mozzoni, RHP from NC State. Sickels: "Slightly above average stuff ... outstanding command ... I like him a lot" Wonder if he's confusing him with Carmine Ronzoni of the Bad News Bears in Breaking Training.

Carmen "Carmine" Ronzonni is your Chico Bail Bonds Player of the Week.

[MFS62]

Vic, FK, those studies sound like they took a lot of work.
Was any consideration given to players who slipped in the draft because of signability issues or teams not wanting to pay over slot?
An interesting study would be guys who were higly rated by pre-draft mavens, then slipped down, and comparing them to players drafted at their "appropriate" levels.

Later

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Mets go with Cory Mozzoni, RHP from NC State. Sickels: "Slightly above average stuff ... outstanding command ... I like him a lot" Wonder if he's confusing him with Carmine Ronzoni of the Bad News Bears in Breaking Training. Carmen "Carmine" Ronzonni is your Chico Bail Bonds Player of the Week.

Finished the book over the weekend, watched a few segments of the movie on the youtube.

[Frayed Knot]

An interesting study would be guys who were higly rated by pre-draft mavens, then slipped down, and comparing them to players drafted at their "appropriate" levels.

The problem with that is that there's never a consensus for where a guy is "supposed to" go.
Players rise and/or fall for all kinds of reasons, perceived money demands is just one of them.


What I find most telling is to get a look at the area around where you're picking and examine those. I think it tends to give a better picture than just looking at the one slot because you get a better sample size and you're not subject to as much variability.

So here is ten years of drafts through 2007 from picks 11 thru 15 in each year.
Of the 50 I count 18 who never reached the majors although six of them are from recent drafts who still have a decent shot at it. (not sure what to make of the fact that most of the failures were early on and fewer recently).
Approximately 15 (depending on your definition) are or were full-time players and starters with the rest falling somewhere in between.


1998

11 - Josh McKinley (HS) SS, Expos -- Never reached Majors, Out of baseball since 2004
* 12 - Adam Everett (Coll) SS, Red Sox -- Full-timer for four seasons, part-timer since
13 - J.M. Gold (HS) RHP, Brewers -- Never reached majors (topped out in A+ ball). Done by 2003
* 14 - Jeff Weaver (Coll) RHP, Tigers -- 104-119 over 11 ML seasons. Doesn�t appear to be playing this season
15 - Clint Johnson (Coll) LHP, Pirates -- Never reached majors. Played 11 seasons of minor league and independant ball


1999

11 - Ryan Christianson (HS) C, Mariners -- Never reached majors. Done since 2007
* 12 - Brett Myers (HS) RHP, Phillies -- Active in 10th ML season
13 - Mike Paradis (Coll) RHP, Orioles -- Never reached majors, done sinice 2004
14 - Ty Howlington (HS) LHP, Reds -- Never reached majors, done since 2005
15 - Jason Stumm (HS) RHP, White Sox -- Never reached majors, done since 2005



2000

11 - Dave Krynzel (HS) OF, Angels -- 48 ML ABs. Played in minors through 2009
12 - Joe Borchard (Coll) OF, White Sox -- Played in parts of 6 ML seasons and in minors thru 2010
13 - Shaun Boyd (HS) OF, Cards -- Never reached majors, done since 2009
14 - Beau Hale (Coll) RHP, Orioles -- Never reached majors, done since 2007
* 15 - Chase Utley (Coll) 2B, Phillies



2001

11 - Kenny Baugh (Coll) RHP, Tigers -- Never reached majors, done since 2009
12 - Mike Jones (HS) RHP, Brewers -- Never reached majors, still in Brewer system in 2010
* 13 - Casey Kotchman (HS) 1B, Angels -- Currently having the best of his 8 ML seasons
14 - Jake Bautreau (Coll) 3B, Padres -- Never reached majors, done since 2008
15 - Gabe Gross (Coll) OF, Blue Jays -- Apparently retired after 7 mostly part-time ML seasons


2002

11 - Jeremy Hermida (HS) OF, Marlins -- Struggling to hang on now in his 7th ML season (3 as a full-timer)
12 - Joe Saunders (Coll) LHP, Angels -- 65-48 over 7 ML seasons
* 13 - Khalil Greene (Coll) SS Padres -- #2 RoY in 2004. Last played in 2009
14 - Russ Adams (Coll) SS, Blue Jays -- Currently toiling in Buffalo. Last played in ML in 2009
* 15 - Scott Kazmir (HS) LHP, Mets


2003

11 - Michael Aubrey (Coll) 1B, Indians -- 135 ML ABs. Currently in AAA
12 - Lastings Milledge (HS) OF, Mets -- 1,500 ML ABs over parts of 6 ML seasons. Currently in AAA
* 13 - Aaron Hill (Coll) SS, Blue Jays -- 1-time AS in his 7th ML season
14 - Ryan Wagner (Coll) RHP, Reds -- Made majors almost immediately. Relieved over 5 ML seasons. Hasn�t played since 2009
15 - Brian Anderson (Coll) OF, White Sox -- Played in parts of 5 ML seasons. In minors as of 2010


2004

* 11 - Neil Walker (HS) C, Pirates -- In 2nd full ML season
* 12 - Jered Weaver (Coll) RHP, Angels -- 2 AS + Top-5 CY
13 - Bill Bray (Coll) LHP, Expos -- In 5th ML season as a reliever
* 14 - Billy Butler (HS) 3B, Royals -- Full-time 1B/DH in 5th ML season
* 15 - Stephen Drew (Coll) SS, DBacks -- Currently in 6th ML season


2005

* 11 - Andrew McCutchen (HS) OF, Pirates -- AS in 3rd ML season
* 12 - Jay Bruce (HS) OF, Reds -- AS in 4th ML season
13 - Brandon Snyder (HS) C, Orioles -- 33 ML ABs over 2 seasons, currently in AAA
14 - Trevor Crowe (Coll) OF, Indians -- Parts of 2 ML seasons. Apparently not playing this year (injury?)
15 - Lance Broadway (Coll) RHP, White Sox -- Pieces of 3 ML seasons. Was in AAA in 2010


2006

11 - Max Scherzer (Coll) RHP, DBacks -- 4th ML season
12 - Kasey Kiker (HS) LHP, Rangers -- Has not reached the majors, Currently In High-A ball
13 - Tyler Colvin (Coll) OF, Cubs -- Part-timer in 3rd ML season
14 - Travis Snider (HS) OF, Blue Jays -- Part-timer in 4th ML season
15 - Chris Marrero (HS) OF, Nationals -- Hasn�t reached majors, currently in AAA


2007

11 - Phillipe Aumont (HS) RHP, Mariners -- Hasn�t reached majors, currently in AAA
12 - Matt Dominguez (HS) 3B, Marlins -- Hasn�t reached majors, currently in AAA
13 - Beau Mills (Coll) 1B, Indians -- Hasn�t reached majors, currently in AAA
* 14 - Jason Heyward (HS) OF, Braves -- #2 RoY in 2010
15 - Devin Mesoraco (HS) C, Reds -- Hasn�t reached majors, currently in AAA

[Vic Sage]

A

pproximately 15 (depending on your definition) are or were full-time players and starters with the rest falling somewhere in between

And i count about 1/3 to 1/2 of those, maybe 5-8 of the 50, as having had a significant long-term all-star level impact on their teams sufficient for a fan to jump up and down about having them. so that's maybe 10-15% chance of it mattering much. Which is about what i recall from my prior research on the subject.

[MFS62]

Thanks again, FK.
Is that Walker the same guy who is currently playing second base for the Pirates?
Catcher to infield, the old Craig Biggio trick.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

Nimmo's got his first hit notched.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2011_08_19_mtsrok_natrok_1&t=g_box&did=milb

First run, too.

[Frayed Knot]

Didn't waste any time putting him to work did they?
I half figured they were going to 'unveil' him at CF tonight now that the team is home and the media in tow before sending him off but this is probably the better idea. Also, with no HS team, the American Legion season he's been playing (or some such equivalent) has been going on mostly since the draft as opposed to many of the just-signed HS players who have been sitting out for the last two months at this point, so no reason not to keep the momentum going for the final three weeks or so of the minor league season.



I see also from that box score that Mr. Hu has fallen all the way to the GCL to work out whatever problems he's been having.
Could be just an injury rehab except that he's got nearly 50 ABs at that level.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yup, rehabbing Hu. Not hitting there either.

I guess it doesn't matter where he gets his at-bats in. He needs to get the defense fixed first anyhow.

The Gulf Coasters, meanwhile, come back from a 6-3 deficit with five in the seventh on the way to a 9-7 win.

[MFS62]

Nimmo already has more professional hits than Vernon Gholston.

Later