Expectations of Eleven: Manny Acosta

[Edgy MD]

Pos: RHRP
Born: 5/1/1981 in Colon, Panama (30 in 2011)
Acquired: Claimed off waivers from the Atlanta Braves, 3/30/2010.
2010 Stats:

Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
NYM	NL	3	2	.600	2.95	41	0	12	0	0	1	39.2	30	13	13	4	18	1	42	0	0	3	157	134	1.210	6.8	0.9	4.1	9.5	2.33

Last Word: Almost nothing has been written about him this season, but he's likely to remain around, as he's the most experienced closer after Francisco Rodriguez. As it becomes more likely every day that Rodriguez returns to the team in 2011, his situation is still unsettled since he's returning to a team that withheld $3,000,000 in pay to him last season. (Can we add that to this seaosn's payroll? Please?) He's been listed on the roster for Los Bravos de Margarita in the Venezuelan Winter League, but it doesn't look like he's made any appearances.

What do you expect of Manny Acosta in 2011?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I'm hoping for a decent 60-70 innings, with fewer walks and continued luck-- and his rate last year was really lucky for him-- in the flyball department.

I'm thinking a moderate regression-- low-4s ERA, 2 HR/9, slightly-higher K rate-- is more to be expected, with a little less than 1/2 a WAR in total value.

[Edgy MD]

That sounds right. I'm not so sure I'd expect him to go regress that much, though. ERAs are unwieldy things for relievers, but I don't expect a double of the homer rate, CitiField and all.

[Guest attgig]

that's a lot of innings for acosta. I think his innings stay under 50, but otherwise, similar numbers.

[Edgy MD]

I'm tempted to give this victory to attgig, whose prediction amounted more or less to "more of the same," but he had a much more accurate vision of the amount of usage Acosta would get, and that reflected well on him across the board.

In the absence of numerical predictions, I drew inference from folks textual predictions, where reasonable. In retrospect, I feel a twinge of pride over my impassioned defense of Acosta's (and CitiField's) homer stinginess.

Predition	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB	WAR
Actual	4	1	.800	3.45	44	0	15	0	0	4	47	50	21	18	6	15	0	46	2	0	0	204	108	1.383	9.6	1.1	2.9	8.8	3.07	0.6
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr	-	-	-	�4.20	�60	-	-	-	-	-	�65	-	-	�30	�14	�25	-	�74	-	-	-	-	�89	-	-	2.0	�3.5	�10.3	�2.94	0.4
Edgy DC	-	-	-	�3.90	�60	-	-	-	-	-	�65	-	-	�28	�8	�25	-	�74	-	-	-	-	�96	-	-	1.1	�3.5	�10.3	�2.94	0.6
attgig	�3	�2	�.600	�2.95	�47	�0	�14	�0	�0	�1	�45.0	�34	�15	�15	�5	�20	�1	�48	�0	�0	�3	�178	�134	�1.210	�7.7	�0.9	�4.1	�.9.5	�2.33	�0.7