In Search Of Pennant Races - AL Edition

[Frayed Knot]

GWreck: AL [pennant races are] no better:

MFYs have the East.
Detroit has the Central (5.5 up over Minnesota)
Los Angeles has the west (up 6 over Texas).

Texas is 4.5 back of Boston for the Wild Card and that's as close as it gets. Nobody else even has a shot.




Figured I'd split off to an AL thread so we'll have a spot to discuss things if, by some weird quirk of fate, something worth discussing actually crops up.


Texas got smushed by Oakland last night and lost another half-game to Boston (although not to LAA) and it doesn't help that, at the moment, they're playing without both Josh Hamilton & Michael Young.

And whether Boston facing off vs the Angels this week helps or hurts is, I suppose, up to interpretation. One of those two will get a loss each night but one also gets a win.
Sox are starting Dice-K tonight for the first time since like June something. Halos go with Lackey. Rangers continue with Oakland.


Tigers continue to be schizophrenic, winning 6 in a row then losing 5 straight. Problem is no one else in that division is over .500 so there's little threat unless they really collapse.

Tampa just broke an 11 game losing streak last night and is barely .500 this year.

[metirish]

Not that I care all that much but I was rooting for Texas to make the playoffs this year.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

I just hope the Angels continue to be postseason killers of the MFY.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

Thanks to what, in my opinion, is the most ridiculous rule in baseball, they'll meet the Red Sox in the first round and they tend to roll over for them in the playoffs.

Irrespective of this, the Angels haven't got the pitching to match the MFY in a 5 game series let alone in 7.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Hey, don't burst my bubble, 3D. The hope of seeing an early exit by the Yankees is one of the few things I have to look forward to this post season.

[Gwreck]

I could see the Tigers beating the Yankees in the first round again, as they did in 2006. Verlander outpitches whomever and the Tigers get at least a split on the road, they can win that series.

I've said this before but I would be fine with a division winner facing the wild-card in the first round, so long as there was a bigger penalty for not winning your division.

Best record in the league should get you a 2-1-2 series against the Wild Card team.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

Another solution is to introduce a second wild card, and have the two wild card teams play a preliminary Wild Card round (best of 3) and then face the team with the best record in their league.

[Guest Edgy DC]

If they're going to do that, then it should be a one-game free-for all.

[Frayed Knot]

I much prefer the 2nd Wild Card entry idea (one-game face-off to get in please) to any of the myriad of suggestions (mostly involving taking away home games) that artificially try to trip up the WC team en route to the WS.
The rule about not playing in-division teams against each other in the first round stems from the idea that once you've proved you're the better team over 162 games you shouldn't have to prove it all over again in a 3-of-5 right off the bat. Let them knock off someone else first and then come back for a second try. I don't have a problem with that.



- Matsuzaka looked sharp for Boston last night - pitching much more efficiently than his normal self. That's 6 straight for Boston (TLTL)

- But Texas got thumped again so they lost ground in the WC and didn't gain any in the West

- Tigers got smushed by KC so the winning Twins & ChiSox both picked up a game (5.5 GB & 4.5 GB)

[Gwreck]

Whereas I am very much against adding ANY team to the postseason under any circumstances. Baseball's postseason exclusivity (8 or 30 teams) is crucial to maintaining a competitive and compelling regular season.

[MFS62]

Speaking of the White Sox, from Baseball Prospectus:

"What have I seen from Rios? A lot of outs. The only batting ninth guy making $5 million was me. This motherf��- is making $10, $12, $14 million, he ain't going to be batting ninth. I'm going to make sure he earns his money. But right now I have to put him there because he's struggling. Next year, if we have Rios batting ninth we're in deep shit, once again." �White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, on outfielder Alex Rios.

I'm rooting for Ozzie's team after that quote.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Ozzie's a jerk.

[Frayed Knot]

Whereas I am very much against adding ANY team to the postseason under any circumstances. Baseball's postseason exclusivity (8 or 30 teams) is crucial to maintaining a competitive and compelling regular season.[/quote:57xzqr46]

Yeah except that adding one per league (10 of 30 instead of 8) but then eliminating 2 via a single-elimination tilt on day one makes it more of a Play-IN game than a play-off for those WC teams and creates a [u:57xzqr46]Real[/u:57xzqr46] advantage to winning a division over simply cruising to a WC berth.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

For those who are hoping to watch a team collapse this September, I direct your attention to the Tiggers who have the Twins now only 4 GB and have to face them seven more times this year.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, the Tiggers go to Twin-land this weekend for a 3-gamer that could make that race interesting if Minny takes at least 2.
Problem is, the Twins are as bad off the Detroit these days. Both are missing pitchers and Morneau is now out for the season.

Besides (and normally I hate using this sort of logic but it's too true in this case to ignore) the Twinkies NEVER beat the Yanx; not in reg season, not in post-season, not in spring training, not in the whack-a-mole contests on the boardwalk, not in trivial pursuit, or Scrabble, or anything!! ... and the Central winner is almost certain to be the Yanx first-round opponent.



Angels scored a 9th inning run to avoid a Boston sweep. That one also is a kind of playoff preview since those two are likely to tangle in the 1st round as well.

Texas is not only sinking quickly but is doing so in an unfamiliar way: decent pitching but ZERO hitting. They've lost 4 straight while scoring [u:296wlm3c]a total[/u:296wlm3c] of one run. No Hamilton, no Young, no Saltalamacchia
They have a weekend series w/the Angels so a sweep is necessary and even then probably not enough

[Guest The Second Spitter]

The Twinkies are now within 3 of the Tiggers.

Would I be stating the obvious if I said the AL Central is a really, really weak division? I mean, if you believe in Pythagorean expectations and all that, the Tigers are a sub-500 club (73-74).

[Frayed Knot]

Also, Texas's shot at a sweep against LAA disappeared early as they get shut-out for the 4th time in 5 games. Now 7.5 games out.

Boston wins/Yanx lose to close the East race to within 6 games. Not like that puts the division in any danger, but it does give me the opportunity to talk about the Yanqui game.
Yanx lead 2-1 in the 9th; Rivera gets the first two outs but then gives up a double and then a walk-off 2R HR to Ichiro.
To be fair, Ichiro was only trying to make up for being picked off 1st base [u:2h8j93a9]twice[/u:2h8j93a9] during in the game.

[Frayed Knot]

Wow, Twins score 5 in the 8th to beat Detroit 6-2 in a game which had been dominated by Verlander up to that point.
A hit lost in the Metrodome ceiling was part of the rally.

[Frayed Knot]

Twins & Tiggers both win to keep that race at Detroit +2.5

Nathan saved the game last night as he has 6 of Minny's last 7 wins.
But, man, are they going to regret that game on Sept 2nd where he came in with a 2-run lead against the ChiSox and, after getting the first two outs, gave up back-to-back HRs to tie the game, and then back-to-back walks before getting pulled. Those inherited runners both scored and the Twins lost a crusher which you knew right then was one they were going to look back on if they ultimately fall short this year.

[Frayed Knot]

Tiggers win (almost blew a 3-run 9th inning lead) whilst Twinkies sit - so the lead is back to 3 full games.

Detroit goes to Chitown for the weekend; Minny heads to KC


The Red Sox (5.5 back) could make things slightly interesting in the East but they'll need a sweep in the Bronx this weekend to do it.
Lester vs Joba to start things off.

Texas is further out of the WC (8) than they are out of the West (7). IOW, they're D-E-A-D

[Frayed Knot]

Tigers get shut-out by Jake Peavy and the ChiSox while Twins beat Royals so it's down to 2 games.

And the best part abut this race could be the schedule.
Tigers have two series against Chicago (this one and the one to end the season) and the Twins have two at the same times against Kansas City.
In between is a 4-game series against each other, in Detroit.

[Frayed Knot]

Gotta love the Twins & Tigers for making it interesting.

- Twins go down 2-0 early to the Royals last night then come back with 7 un-answered runs on their way to an 11-6 win.

- Tigers were even more fun, finding themselves in a 5-0 hole on only one hit thru 4 inning before exploding for 12 runs & 19 hits over the last five innings and a 12-5 win.

[Frayed Knot]

Minny & Detroit both lost keeping the gap at 2 games.
They start a 4-game series in Detroit tonight; Blackburn vs Porcello



Yanx clinched on Sunday.
Boston, needing a sweep to even make it interesting, managed an 'un-sweep' and got to watch the Yanx (who, you know, don't celebrate mere division titles) celebrate their division title.


Texas trails both the WC and the West by 6 games. IOW, not out of it yet, just out of it.

[Frayed Knot]

* Minny & Detroit rained out yesterday. So it's 2 today (noon & 7) plus one each Wed & Thurs.
Minny: Last 10 games = 8-2; Last 20 games = 13-7; Last 30 games = 19-11
Tigers: Last 10 games = 5-5; Last 20 games = 9-11; Last 30 games = 16-14


* Angels shutout Texas (again) - clinch West.



* Boston lost although the stRangers losing moved the Sox WC-magic # to 1.

[Gwreck]

Tigers/Twins split so it remains 2 games. Tigers' magic number is 4 and they could clinch with wins today and tomorrow vs. Minnesota.

Figure the Tigers also have the upper hand because Verlander pitched today, making him available for Sunday should the Tigers have a must-win game; or Monday for a one-game playoff.

[Frayed Knot]

Minny came in to this series having to take at least 3 of 4 - so now it's the last 2 or forget it. Splitting will just spin their wheels and take two more days off the schedule.
Their biggest obstacles are having to face Verlander & Grienke in two of their last five games with virtually no margin for error.




BoSox clinched the WC even though they lost again and are essentially playing like shit lately.



Yanx - courtesy of their league's best record - get to pick their schedule for the first round. Either they can choose the 5 games w/one day off or 5 with two days off. Be interesting to see which they opt for. The extra day off allows you to only go with three starters but of course it allows the other squad to do that too. Verlander & Edwin Jackson twice each (assuming Detroit makes it) might be better for the Tiggers.

[Frayed Knot]

Twins smack around the Tigers in this afternoon's game and get a split of the 4-game series.
But that still leaves them 2 full games back with three to go - so that obviously means they'll need to be two games better than the Tiggers this weekend (sweep while Detroit loses 2 of 3, or win 2 of 3 while Tigers earn a bagel) just to force a tie and a one-game play-in situation. Or they'll need to go 3-0 while Tigers go 0-3 to win it outright.
Both teams will be at home: Twins host KC, Tigers get ChiSox.

The funny part about a potential one game playoff is that it would in Minnesota (on the basis of in-season head-to-head) but Monday night at the Metrodome already has the Farve-O-Rama (Vikings host Packers) so, if it's needed, they couldn't have it until Tuesday.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Head to St. Paul and play at Midway Stadium.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

If Verlander has to pitch again in the regular season, they can kiss goodbye any hope of beating the Jankees.

[Frayed Knot]

- Tigers get thumped 8-0 by Peavy and the ChiSox
- Twinkies jump out to a 10-0 lead and hang on to beat the Royals 10-7

Tiger lead is down to one game and they're pitching Alfredo Figaro (insert Barber of Seville jokes here) a 24 y/o Dominican rookie making his 5th ML appearance and just his 3rd start (the other two were in July). Freddie Garcia goes for Chicago.

Twins are throwing Nick Blackburn and have to face Zack Greinke in an afternoon game, but if they can put up a 'W' prior to the Tiger game starting at night there's got to be some pretty nervous Tigers in Motown.