Visions of Johan-a

[Frayed Knot]

OK, I admit it, I was just looking for an excuse to use that subject heading.

But anyway, [u:eab9d94e58]The Hardball Times[/u:eab9d94e58] takes out its cyrstal ball twice today and looks at the future of Santa Anna as a NYM.

First in Santana Claus: The Trade that Keeps on Giving they compare him to other multiple CY winners at a similar age and find him to be in elite company and reasonably likely to provide Wilpon with his money's worth.

Then they take a rather sabermetric look at what his contract means to the team for 2009 and beyond - a look prompted by a somewhat hysterical note from a Met fan fretting that they had put too many eggs in the near-term basket.
The basic conclusion was that the post-2008 departures of Pedro, Delgado, Hernandez & Perez could probably be replaced on the open market for a similar cost/production ratio (if done correctly of course) even while carrying Santana's huge contract and dealing with a gutted farm system.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Frayed Knot wrote: The basic conclusion was that the post-2008 departures of Pedro, Delgado, Hernandez & Perez could probably be replaced on the open market for a similar cost/production ratio (if done correctly of course) even while carrying Santana's huge contract and dealing with a gutted farm system.

I think that's probably true. Finding a (relatively) low-cost replacement for Delgado will probably be the toughest task. I suspect that first base is going to be the Mets' main focus after the 2008 season. (I'd like to see the Mets steal Teixeira from the Braves.)

I'm also thinking that the Mets probably won't lose both Martinez and Perez. (They may even retain both of them.) But even if they do, if next year is like this year, there will be a bunch of potential #3 and #4 starters on the free agent market. Guys like Kris Benson and Kyle Lohse and Livan Hernandez (and others) are still unsigned just a couple of weeks before spring training. If the Mets don't spend big on a Sabathia to replace Pedro (and my guess is that they won't) they should have plenty of other options.

[smg58]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I think that's probably true. Finding a (relatively) low-cost replacement for Delgado will probably be the toughest task. I suspect that first base is going to be the Mets' main focus after the 2008 season. (I'd like to see the Mets steal Teixeira from the Braves.)

Keeping him from returning to the Braves will be the easy part. Outbidding the Yankees...

[smg58]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'm also thinking that the Mets probably won't lose both Martinez and Perez. (They may even retain both of them.)

Agreed, and Pelfrey will replace El Duque. The question I can't answer is how much money do the Mets still have to spend. After not committing significant money to anybody in 07 and letting Glavine go this year, I don't think Santana breaks their bank.

[Gwreck]

I'd venture a guess that the Wilpons could easily add another 20-30 million in payroll without a problem.

However, that being said adding Santana this year was not a huge salary jump for the team. They shed a lot of money in the salaries of Green, Valentin, Glavine and LoDuca.

[Valadius]

Perez isn't going anywhere.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

He'll go where he gets the $$ to go.

[Benjamin Grimm]

True dat. He's represented by Boras, which means he's going to test free agency and he will talk to other teams next winter.

There's no reason at all to be certain that he'll be a Met in 2009. If he has a bad year in 2008, the Mets might not want him back. And if he has a great year, there will be competition for him.

[Frayed Knot]

Valadius wrote: Perez isn't going anywhere.

Whether he does or doesn't isn't really the point of the exercise here.

Perez is just one of the potential FAs with an expiring contract whose spot will need to be covered in 2009. Nothing says that any or all of those spots can't be covered with a new deal for those very same players.
All the author of the piece is saying is that, contrary to what the Met fan writing fears, the Santana deal isn't a one-year shot at the moon that will fuck up team payroll beyond '08.

As for Perez, he's a Boras client (ie. no friendly deals) whose '08 season could make his future worth be anything from a cautious 1-year "let's see" deal to a 7-figures/per multi-year bonanza.
I'd be very surprised if a contract gets done with him either prior to or during the season.

[Elster88]

Valadius wrote: Perez isn't going anywhere.

LOL ok whatever you say. And you know this how?

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

Nice article by Joe Sheehan on Johan. His conclusion:

]It�s risky to draw conclusions from a fraction of a season, especially one in which the player in question is changing teams and leagues. However, what we may be seeing in Santana is a pitcher changing his approach as he loses five percent of his stuff. Santana may be a bit more willing to put runners on, to not challenge as much, because he knows that he�s slightly more vulnerable to home runs when he does. So by working down in the zone a bit more�inducing a few extra ground balls (Santana is running the highest G/F of his career)�he can keep more balls in the park. The downside is that he�s pitching to contact more, and with the new approach, missing the plate a bit more as well. I suspect that as he becomes more comfortable pitching this way, he�ll have another extended run of greatness ahead of him, and more Cy Young Awards coming his way. In fact, I think Santana will pitch well enough in the last two months of the season to deserve consideration for that award�won/loss record be damned�this year.