Jose Reyes Deathwatch

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Rotblatt wrote: ="Hillbilly"]How do his ten most similar players look? 5. Alfredo Griffin (26) - career OPS+ of 67 6. Paul Molitor (24) - 122 OPS+ 7. Bert Campaneris (23) - 89 OPS+ 8. Johnny Damon (22) - 102 OPS+ 9. Sonny Jackson (20) - 73 OPS+ 10. Mariano Duncan (17) - 86 OPS+

Where is this list from? (And where are players 1-4?)

Baseballreference.com lists 10 most similar batters I've never heard of.

Mike Caruso (940)
Sy Sutcliffe (938)
Leo Norris (937)
Bob Fisher (936)
Alex Cintron (936)
Andy Cohen (935)
Benny McCoy (935)
Orlando Miller (932)
Ollie Beard (932)
Lou Klein (930)

[Guest Hillbilly]

Similar Batters through Age 22
Compare Stats
Jack Doyle (962)
Mark Koenig (955)
Red Kress (951)
Jack O'Connor (948)
Joe Cronin (947) *
Joe Tinker (945) *
Mike Caruso (944)
Alfredo Griffin (943)
Wil Cordero (943)
Juan Uribe (942)

But this list includes two hall-of-famers.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Not saying Jose is going to be shitty, saying I don't want the Mets paying him big bucks to be shitty. That's a pretty shitty group though, two HOFers notwithstanding. Tinker's a pure glove guy, and a very marginal HOFer.

Where is your first list from?

[Guest Hillbilly]

Right next to yours, about 2 inches to the right.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Bret,

It's from Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA forecasts. They call the comparisons "the backbone" of their forecasts. Here's their definition:

]For Hitters: PECOTA compares each hitter against a database of roughly 20,000 major league batter seasons since World War II. In addition, it also draws upon a database of roughly 10,000 translated minor league seasons (1998-2005) for hitters who spent most of their previous season in the minor leagues. (When minor league comparables are used, they appear in ALL CAPS). PECOTA considers four broad categories of attributes in determining a hitter's comparability: 1. Production metrics--in particular, batting average, isolated power, unintentional walk rate, strikeout rate, groundball:flyball ratio and a modified version of the Bill James speed score. 2. Usage metrics, including career length and plate appearances. 3. Phenotypic attributes, including handedness, height and weight. 4. Fielding Position. PECOTA doesn't require that a comparable hitter play the same defensive position; it is a factor that is evaluated along with many others, and assigned a relatively substantial weight. Consideration is also given to the 'similarity' between two positions; for example, a shortstop will be compared to a second baseman before he is compared to a left fielder. (See additional discussion).

Here's 1-4:

Gary Templeton (45) - 87 career OPS+
Aparicio (35) -- 82 career OPS+
Larkin (32) -- 116 career OPS+
Guzman (28) -- 73 career OPS+

Reyes at the moment has an 82 OPS+--certainly in line with his comps, all of whom got early starts as well. PECOTA doesn't really expect a breakthrough for Reyes, although this year, it does give him a 10% shot at an .869 OPS with an OBP of .373. On the bottom 10%, they have him at .598 OPS with an OBP of .275. The fact that there's such a wide spread indicates that PECOTA doesn't have a good handle on him and isn't sure what to expect.

Here are Reyes' PECOTA projections in OPS/OBP through 2010. I'm taking these with big ole' grains of salt, since there aren't that many comparable players to Reyes (according to PECOTA anyway), and since forecasting at all is unreliable and this far out is just this side of ludicrous:

2006: .714/.317
2007: .730/.326
2008: .709/.320
2009: .737/.332
2010: .724/.322

Decent for a middle infielder. Not typically the kind of guy you'd want leading off though.

I really do keep coming back to Christain Guzman in my head. He batted leadoff for the Twins for a while, and really had no business being there outside of 2001 (.337 OBP). Jose's a better basestealer than Christian, but they're both Dominican, fast, got early starts in the bigs, and came up with stellar defensive reputations.

I can't remember if Guzman got the same hype Reyes did (I kind of doubt it), but when he was the bee's knees in Minnesota for a while. Fans loved him.

Edits: first to add a little more info/disclaimers; second for typos.

My Guzman comp is more what I fear rather than what I expect. Frankly, I expect him to do what PECOTA projects. Three years ago, though, I'd have expected him to be a combination of Rickey and Larkin.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

My point being that Jose belongs at the top of the order about as much as most of those bottom of the order guys do.

Larkin was a .375 OBP guy not much past Jose's age, with less MLB experience than Jose. I don't even see how he got on this list. Maybe it's a list of guys whose OBPs improved? Aparicio was an atrocious leadoff hitter. This is not a promising list.

[nymr83]

I agree that Reyes shouldn't be leading off, but i think talk of AAA is silly. I find it impossible to believe that after 3 years in the majors taking a step backwards will do anything to help him.

With everybody healthy you might try: Nady, Beltran, Wright, Delgado, Floyd, LoDuca, Matsui, Reyes.

If Matsui shows he can hit i'd lead HIM off (not that i find this at all likely.)

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Don't think the suggestion was made we send him down but whether or not he was recalled too early.

[Guest sharpie]

]Larkin was a .375 OBP guy not much past Jose's age, with less MLB experience than Jose

Reyes will turn 23 this year. Larkin turned 23 in his second season where he had a .306 obp. His .375 came when he was 25.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

sharpie wrote: ]Larkin was a .375 OBP guy not much past Jose's age, with less MLB experience than Jose Reyes will turn 23 this year. Larkin turned 23 in his second season where he had a .306 obp. His .375 came when he was 25.

Larkin had already put up a .320 OBP the previous season. I think his lifetime low was about .311 that he had at the end of that .306 year. My point was that we're divided as to whether Jose will be ablel to post a lifetime .311 OBP at the end of this year when he'll be the same as larkin (and the low point in Larkin's OBP). Right now, Jose stands at just about .300.

And Larkin is clearly the best of Reyes' comparables. If he performs anything like Larkin, my whole argument here is totally wrong. But listen carefully: I'm not saying that can't happen. I'm not saying that I don't that to happen. What I'm saying is: it has to start happening very soon. In 1988 (the equivalent of Reyes' 2007) Larkin put up an OPS of .776. Jose put up an OPS last year .090 points below that. His current OPS is .042 below that. These are not encouraging signs.

[nymr83]

one encouraging sign is that his OBP is 40 points higher than his batting average, if THAT keeps up you'd have to think he'll get over .310 since he can probably hit .270

[Elster88]

Jose Reyes BB: 7
Jose Reyes BB in 2005: 27
Jose Reyes BB projected in 2006: 54 (for some reason my calculator is returning 54 exactly)

Jose Reyes OBP: .296
Gotta get some hits to go with the walks.

Then he can get 108 walks in 2007.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yeah, it's important to note that it's hits that he's missing right now. We've got to be ready for a falloff there (hopefully brief) as a few more walks come. If the hits come back without the walks dropping off, he'll have made a big adjustment.

[Guest sharpie]

OBP is now .330.

[Elster88]

12 BB projects to 81

[Guest Edgy DC]

This is pretty bitchin' news so far. Yeah, his hitting has tailed off, but you'd expect to lose something there from a slap hitter working on restraining his swing instinct. Obviously, he hasn't lost as many hits as he's gained walks, so it's probably a net gain developmentally, if not productively, and that may not be too far off.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Looking increasingly comfortable at the plate. His walk total was definitely helped by yesterday's miniscule strike zone, but he let some nasty pitches that he might have swung at in the past go by.

Two thumbs up from Rotblatt for Reyes's early going.

Reyes & Milledge's batting eyes seem to improving dramatically this season.

I wonder if it's an institutional change, if it's unrelated, or what. If it's sustainable for both of them, it will, regardless of HOW, represent a huge organizational acheivement.

[smg58]

I'm not sure it's an institutional change, as we're 25th in team walks, with only Pittsburgh doing worse in the NL. Still, Reyes leaves April on pace for 81 walks... how could that not be a good sign?

[Frayed Knot]

I agree that assuming some sort of fundamental organizational change has been decreed & implemented and is now showing results is a huge leap of faith. More likely it's a small sample size based on only two chosen (albeit important) players.

[Guest Hillbilly]

Jose is tied for the team lead in walks:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statistics/Team/playerstats?team=nym

[Elster88]

http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=2748&start=40

[Guest Hillbilly]

We agree.

[Elster88]

It's a beautiful thing. Worthy of being posted in multiple threads.

[Guest Edgy DC]

]I agree that assuming some sort of fundamental organizational change has been decreed & implemented and is now showing results is a huge leap of faith. More likely it's a small sample size based on only two chosen (albeit important) players.

It's not out of the question, though, that the common thread is that these are the two guys who perhaps got the most (or most effective) instruction from Rickey Henderson, or responded best to it.

That's far from a safe assumption, of course, but it's intriguing.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Nor for nothing, but while Reyes is up there in walks is encouraging, it'd be nice to see from pressure from such Mets as Nady, Wright and LoDuca. Maybe it is close. I think you know what I mean.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Frayed Knot wrote: I agree that assuming some sort of fundamental organizational change has been decreed & implemented and is now showing results is a huge leap of faith. More likely it's a small sample size based on only two chosen (albeit important) players.

Well, sure, but if you listen to the experts, they'll tell you that the number of people who have developed a good eye at the plate are few and far between, and most seem to be guys who developed power then began to get a bit pitched around (or maybe their eye improved first--hard to say). We've got two at once who show signs that they MIGHT be turning a corner, which seems a little unusual to me. But maybe not . . .

Anyway, the most Reyes walks has ever had in a month is 10 in 120 PA in August 2003 (8% of all PA). Reyes ends April at 12 in 112 PA (11%). Now, maybe he'll go back to being his old self (4% for his MLB career) starting today, but it's definitely an encouraging sign, as smg says.

Milledge, meanwhile, has a 18 walks in just 102 PA (18%). In 207 AAA PA last year, Milledge walked only 14 times (7%)--just below his career minor league average of 8%.

To put it another way, Milledge's 18 walks so far this season account for 23% of the total number of walks he's drawn in all 917 plate appearances of his professional career. If he stays at the same rate and receives 458 plate appearances (as he did last year), he will have more than doubled his career walk total.

Amazing.

My suspicion is that, IF he keeps it up, it will have been an extremely uncommon jump forward. I could be wrong, though . . .

[Guest Edgy DC]

Milledge, for what's it's worth, has been head and shoulders ahead of his fellow Tides as a hitter this year, so he's prone to being pitched around. Reyes is somebody they want to keep off the bases at all costs.

[Guest Rotblatt]

="Edgy DC"]Milledge, for what's it's worth, has been head and shoulders ahead of his fellow Tides as a hitter this year, so he's prone to being pitched around. Reyes is somebody they want to keep off the bases at all costs.

That's true, but Milledge has also been batting leadoff and he's got great speed. I have a hard time believing they're actually pitching around him . . .

[Guest Hillbilly]

http://www.nysun.com/article/31961?page_no=2&access=722635

The NY Sun would call it a well panned 'star watch' as oppossed to a death watch. I found this on Metsblog.com

[Elster88]

]The NY Sun would call it a well panned 'star watch' as oppossed to a death watch

Thread/article titles can be a reflection of the general attitude and personality of the writer.