Francisco Lindor Is Back, Though His Biggest Question Marks Predate His Hamstring Injury

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

Image courtesy of © Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Francisco Lindor finally returned to the New York Mets' lineup last Wednesday. The biggest question, though, isn't whether he'll find his rhythm again after the injury. That question existed before he went on the injured list.

The real one, at least for us sickos who still have a glimmer of hope with this team, is this: Can he punish four-seam fastballs the way he did in 2024?

When Lindor went down, he was still a productive hitter. He was getting on base, controlling the strike zone and providing offensive value. What had changed was how he created that production. The quality of contact that drove the best offensive season of his career had already started to slip.

In 2024, Lindor hit the ball with a level of authority he had never before sustained over a full season. His 13.6% barrel rate was the highest of his career, while his .539 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) reflected a hitter who turned quality contact into extra-base damage.

That offensive profile looks very different today.

Season	Barrel %	xSLG
2024	13.6%	.539
2025	8.9%	.454
2026	8.1%	.427

The drop in barrels doesn't make Lindor a bad hitter. More importantly, it doesn't point to an obvious physical decline. His average exit velocity remains among the best of his career. His hard-hit rate is still above the major-league average. Before the injury, he was walking more often than he did in 2025 while keeping his strikeout rate below the MLB average.

If the bat speed is still there and the plate discipline hasn't disappeared, the answer has to be somewhere else.

Everything points to the pitch he sees more than any other. Four-seam fastballs account for nearly 40% of every pitch Lindor faces. No other pitch has a greater impact on his offensive production. That's where the biggest change appears.

Pitch Type	BA 2024-25	BA 2026	SLG 2024-25	SLG 2026
Four-Seam Fastball	.263	.209	.527	.465

The sample remains small—just 122 plate appearances before the injury—but the decline is already apparent.

The interesting part is that Lindor doesn't appear to be losing the battle against velocity. His whiff rate against four-seamers has barely changed. In other words, the problem isn't catching up to the pitch, but rather what happens after he does.

The next clue comes from his production across the strike zone.

Lindor's wOBA in 2025

Lindor's wOBA in 2026

The problem is concentrated in one area. Pitches at the top of the strike zone have become the spot where opposing pitchers are doing the best job of limiting Lindor's quality of contact. Roughly 28% of the pitches he sees in the strike zone are located there, and he is no longer driving them with the same authority he showed just two seasons ago.

That trend was already in place before the injury, and it explains far more about Lindor's season than any tiny sample since his return.

The injury was never the turning point in this story. It only put it on pause. Now that Lindor is back, the question remains the same as it was before his absence: Can he regain the command of the four-seam fastball that defined the best offensive season of his career?

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[ashie62]

He's not catching up to high heat I guess

[Edgy MD]

Imma stick with small sample size before the injury.  He's started slow before.

I'm more concerned that he's on the block, and the Mets have certainly given him enough reason to waive his no-trade rights.

[ashie62]

I don't know how to explain this but I feel like Lindor has been disrespected. I don't know "how" but he was kinda painted as the bad guy in individual interactions with McNeil Alonso and Soto 

This all seems to stem from culture and politics 

So yes, I'm getting a Lindor is on the block vibe myself