Big Shot Rookies

[Edgy MD]

As historic and ground-breaking and ball-busting a rookie season Pete Alonso has had, neither Fangraphs nor Baseball-Reference consider it, or even project it, to be the best rookie season in franchise history.



The two measurements, each based on proprietary data, come to (in some cases, wildly) divergent conclusions, which can undermine the claims of either or both that this measurement represents some sort of bottom line. (FanGraphs gives Travis d'Arnaud a lauditory 2.8 WAR his rookie season, while Baseball-Reference shames him with a 0.3.)



Below are the top ten Mets rookies through history ranked by both criteria. In parentheses is their finish in that year's Rookie of the Year balloting. (It's worth noting that voters are historically more forgiving of partial seasons in the Rookie of the Year competition than in other awards.) I guess the best news is knowing that the 1962 Mets had a rookie sensation and didn't even know it.



Mets Rookies Ranked by fWAR



1) Dwight Gooden (1984): 8.3 (1st)

2) Jon Matlack (1972): 4.9 (1st) *

3) =#0000FF]Peter Alonso (2019): 4.6 (??)

4) Al Jackson (1962): 4.0 (—)

t-5) Jerry Koosman (1968): 3.6 (2nd)

t-5) Jacob deGrom (2014): 3.6 (1st)

7) Tom Seaver (1967): 3.3 (1st)

8) Jae Seo (2003): 3.2 (—)

t-9) Ike Davis (2010): 2.9 (7th)

t-9) Noah Syndergaard (2015): 2.9 (4th)

...



17) Hubie Brooks (2015): 2.4 (3rd) **



* For the strike-shortened season of 1972, John Matlack's team played only 156 games. His fWAR figure extrapolated to 162 games is 5.1, which would not change his ranking of second.

** For the strike-shortened season of 1981, Hubie Brooks' team played only 103 games. His fWAR figure extrapolated to 162 games is 3.8, which would rank him fifth.



Mets Rookies Ranked by bWAR



1) Jerry Koosman (1968): 6.3 (2nd)

2) Jon Matlack (1972): 6.1 (1st) *

3) Tom Seaver (1967): 6.0 (1st)

4) Dwight Gooden (1984): 5.5 (1st)

5) =#0000FF]Peter Alonso (2019): 4.8 (??)

t-6) Jae Seo (2003): 3.3 (—)

t-6) Ike Davis (2010): 3.3 (7th)

8) Jacob deGrom (2014): 3.1 (1st)

9) Al Jackson (1962): 2.9 (—)

10) Darryl Strawberry (19833): 2.8 (1st)

...



12) Hubie Brooks (2015): 2.6 (3rd) **



* For the strike-shortened season of 1972, John Matlack's team played only 156 games. His bWAR figure extrapolated to 162 games is 6.3, which would tie him for first.

** For the strike-shortened season of 1981, Hubie Brooks' team played only 103 games. His bWAR figure extrapolated to 162 games is 4.1, which would rank him sixth.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Koosman's rookie season was sensational. His problem was that it happened in 1968. And whenever anyone ever talks about the best NL pitchers of that season, the conversation begins and ends with Bob Gibson. Really. As if Gibson was the only NL pitcher that even existed that year. Koosman, teammate Tom terrific, and Larry Dierker, just to name a few off the top of my head without checking things, were all brilliant that season. Koosman threw, what, eight compete game shutouts that year? Eight!

[smg58]

It was a different era. But a 1.12 ERA in over 300 innings is ridiculous in any era.

[G-Fafif]

You know whose rookie season never gets mentioned despite starting 35 games in a rotation that accomplished something people are still amazed by 50 years later? Gary Gentry. 13 wins in his first year when that was a stat people took seriously, yet not a single ROY vote or slot on Topps All-Rookie team.



I guess the ring had to suffice.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=G-Fafif post_id=21571 time=1568232183 user_id=55]
You know whose rookie season never gets mentioned despite starting 35 games in a rotation that accomplished something people are still amazed by 50 years later? Gary Gentry. 13 wins in his first year when that was a stat people took seriously, yet not a single ROY vote or slot on Topps All-Rookie team.



I guess the ring had to suffice.

[Edgy MD]

Here's a phun phact: The race for Outstanding Mets Rookie of 2019 might have already been unknowingly secured in game four, the moment Alonso hit his first homer — a go-ahead ninth-inning jobbie against Miami's Drew Steckenrider.



fWAR by Mets Rookies in 2019



1) Peter Alonso: 4.6

2) Walker Lockett: 0.2

t-3) Chris Mazza: 0.1

t-3) Luis Guillorme: 0.1

t-5) Brooks Pounders: 0.0

t-5) Sam Haggerty: 0.0

t-7) Daniel Zamora: -0.1

t-7) Ryan O'Rourke: -0.1

t-7) Stephen Nogosek: -0.1

t-10) Jacob Rhame: -0.2

t-10) Tim Peterson: -0.2

12) Tomas Nido: -0.4

13) Tyler Bashlor: -0.6

14) Drew Gagnon: -0.8

[dinosaur jesus]

Pete's taking a big hit for his defense. If you gave him Ike's defensive numbers, I suspect he'd be into Koosman/Matlack/Seaver territory on Baseball Reference and a solid second on FanGraphs. And if you made him a shortstop who fielded like Ordonez and ran like Esix Snead, I guess it wouldn't even be a contest.

[Frayed Knot]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=21512 time=1568213805 user_id=68]
Koosman's ... problem was that [his great rookie season] happened in 1968.

[Edgy MD]

dinosaur jesus wrote: Pete's taking a big hit for his defense. If you gave him Ike's defensive numbers, I suspect he'd be into Koosman/Matlack/Seaver territory on Baseball Reference and a solid second on FanGraphs. And if you made him a shortstop who fielded like Ordonez and ran like Esix Snead, I guess it wouldn't even be a contest.

What, you're not going to let him pitch every fifth day?