Robinson Canó and the Toy

[Edgy MD]

Bill James, sometime back, created a formula that he didn't really have a name for, but labeled "http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/billjamesThe Toy," because he didn't want to overstate it's credibility. The idea was to speculate as to whether a player was likely to reach certain career goals in counting stats based on their past and their current trends as compared to ... everybody else's.



I decided to plug Robinson Canó's current info in there. According to the Toy, Canó has a 39% chance of reaching 3,000 hits. That might be deceiving, because he plays almost every, every day, averaging 158.54 games from 24 to 34, before playing a half season last year. But that may have queered his trend lines, because he wasn't hurt (he NEVER gets hurt) but suspended.



But hey, it's a valid belief that people who get hurt tend to get hurt. Maybe it's fair to say that people who get suspended tend to get suspended. Jenrry Mejia might say so.



So 39% it is.



Based on the same trend lines, he has a 25% chance of reaching 400 homers, a 48% chance to reach 1,500 RBI, and an, um, 71% chance of reaching 300 GiDPs, a number that would put him in the top 10 all-time, but nowhere near Albert Pujols, who is the all-time leader with 374 and counting.