The talent was always there with Duda, and it was clear from the beginning. Not really. I mean obviously there's some talent there or you don't get drafted. But a 7th round college pick is nothing particularly special. I don't have the stats for the percentage of 7th rounders who even become an everyday player in the big leagues but I know it's a single digit percentage and I'd bet that that single digit is probably under 3. What Sickels is asking here is if anyone saw this coming, throwing the question open to the flocks of prospect geeks who frequent his site. One of the things I like about his site is that he's good at looking back at players who make or break out in the majors to see how accurate (or not) his projections were (something you'll never see from the crew who spent the last two months making absolutist pronouncements on the NFL draft). In this case he's looking at a player who is clearly out-playing his draft rank & prospect reports. I think his notes suggest he clearly saw it coming. And given the nature of the draft, probably everyone beyond the first 50 or so that makes significant progress in the majors could be described as out-playing is draft rank. Particularly ones that garner MVP votes. Duda is the only guy from the draft to make real contributions, but that seems to be the low-end. 2006: Doug Fister, Justin Turner, Mike Leake, Kristopher Negron, Michael McKenry 2005: Michael Brantley, Jon Niese, Will Venable 2003: 2003 Mike Aviles, Brian Bannister, Kyle Kendrick, Wesley Wright, Brendan Ryan I had to go back to 1999 to find a year with single digit make the majors % and that was Coco Crisp with nearly 30 bWAR. It's very clearly not unheard of to have a 7th round pick make a contribution, there are dozens of guys in the majors right now.Rules change of course, but it seems like 7th round might be right around the sweet spot of "Needs to make an adjustment, but if he does can be valuable".