Ceetar

Edgy MD wrote: It'll be known in the future as "The Year of Short Games." I think Terry change pitchers mid-inning in the ninth last ninth just to help out the venders. bah, the vendors generally bail by the 7th anyway.

Lefty Specialist wrote: The thing is, they didn't sign Curtis Granderson to be a leadoff hitter. I get that he can take a walk, and that's useful leading off. But he was signed to be a thumper in the middle of the lineup. He's not getting $15MM a year to be Dexter Fowler. who says what he was signed for? He was signed to make the Mets better. He's doing that. Runs don't count more or less based on the salary of the player.

Edgy MD wrote: He'll be pitching anyhow. the 23rd would be his day in Vegas so you're already bumping him up a day. But it's the minors and easier to bump guys for a day here and there, manage innings, pull guys, etc.

I enjoy the Thor stuff. If we're not calling his curveball Mj�lnir I don't know what we're doing anymore. Not questioning your tea leaves. I prefer to read entrails though, I find the accuracy is a little better. I just mean that I'm not sure it's effective to use a guy with a stricter inning cap to try to relieve the other guy's caps.

Shouldn't Thorsblot be on a Thursday? But the 22nd means an extra day of rest for Harvey and deGrom, which I guess is part of the point. Don't forget Syndergaard is on the tighter innings limit though. And that's still 3.5 starts away. situation could be exacerbated by an injury or trade. If they're looking to ease him in, it might make sense to wait for the following series against the Phillies, though technically that'd be off-turn.

d'Kong76 wrote: 1300AM isn't broadcasting a ball game, they got that Stink on. might be worth deleting that entry on the Wiki then.

Curtis Granderson .242/.364/.363. wRC+ 115. I called 1/3 with a HR/BB. he's 1/3 with a HR. (and he should've had that walk)

and thank you, Instant Replay. Herrera heating up?

Ashie62 wrote: Ashie62 wrote: One of the last Mets lineups without David. David's probably missing the whole road trip. Expected back this weekend per CBS CBS is full of crap then. He's starting rehab games..tomorrow?

Ashie62 wrote: One of the last Mets lineups without David. David's probably missing the whole road trip.

d'Kong76 wrote: I was messing with some BB and OBP stuff on some bbr page I never went to and it gave me results but not the top ten of what I was querying and I noticed on the upper top right there was a link to pay $15 for the service? I had to stop anyway, but when did bbr start offering pay-for-use services? the play-index page is great. It's always (for a while?) been a pay service for all the results. you can sometimes tweak it (sort by the reverse thing and scroll to the end) but if you run as many queries as I do and are as lazy about setting up your own db (particularly for current season!) it's well worth it. It's only $15 with a draftkings deposit. otherwise I think it's $30 with code 'bp'.

having trouble finding a way to search for pitching streaks w/ only one walk. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/bases_on_balls_per_nine_season.shtml The single season bb/9 leaderboard is full of 19th century guys, and Carlos Silva 2005 at .43

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ceetar wrote: It's 'sustainable' because you can't unsell a ticket. Of course it's sustainable. That doesn't guarantee anything. He's saying "we'll see". He's theorizing. Now if the Mets go into a bad fold and drop out of the race, and attendance essentially flattens, we might not know whether it was because of the W-L record or because of the payroll. TBD no, those tickets are sold. The only way he becomes 'right' I guess is if the Mets tank but trade for Tulowitski and attendance keeps going up. really he's not making any points except that the Mets are probably wrong. And he's claiming they asserted things that they merely hinted about in veiled PR speak. He uses the words 'purported increases' which infers he thinks they're lying. Nevermind that all they said was tickets sales are up X to this point. It's a completely un-proveable statement from where we stand anyway.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: A. It's still a 5% increase. It's a small sample and there are various noises in data that small.... He's throwing away Harvey's start like it's a blip in small sample size data because it fit's his narrative, but fails to account for anything else. He's essentially saying it's an outlier. Well sure, the idea that it's payroll that drives ticket sales certainly looks better when you throw out the evidence to the contrary. batmagadanleadoff wrote: B. He's also suggesting that the Mets are lying about the ticket sale increase. No, not suggested, outright stated it. Ignoring for a moment that the ensuing 4 games have already started to prove the Mets right and him wrong, the answer is right in front of him. If the Mets sold more tickets in advance this season, where does he think fans bought them to? Probably cold April games against the Marlins and Phillies? No, not unless Harvey is pitching his first game at Citi Field. Oh look, he was! Turns out that those tickets sold do indeed count towards percent increases in sales. No he's not. He's doubting that a announcement made in January that ticket sales increased almost 20% is sustainable given the Mets roster and salary commitments. That's all to be determined. Sounds, as it always does, like the piece doesn't fit your narrative. It's 'sustainable' because you can't unsell a ticket. Also because of the four games after he wrote the post. I'm arguing facts here, not my narrative. I'm surprised ticket sales are up as much as they are, typically I expect that to be a 'year after' type effect. They're already packing the place on weekends and it's not even summer. There are about 1300 Promenade tickets available for the Saturday 6/27 Reds game. Nothing I've seen or read seems to suggest the Mets ticket sale numbers are wrong.

also, OPS isn't park-adjusted. Granderson is 12th of 24 RFers in wRC+ (which is weighted Runs Created) 13th in wOBA. And he's literally first in BB/K. You can argue all you want about a slower bat. The time will come when pitchers will adjust to him based on this stat, with more pitches down the middle. If his bat is slower, he'll miss a bunch of those, if he's not a shell of himself (or you know, even if he's last year Curtis) he'll drive a few of them out of the part and his ISO will soar. Except this might not be true. Granderson is seeing roughly a league average amount of balls in the zone. He's just swinging a lot less. The average hitter swings at 30% of pitches out of the strike zone. Granderson swings at 14.4%. Pitchers, for whatever reason, are throwing him more fastballs and less sliders. Sample size maybe? Or perhaps simply that his patience is getting him into hitters counts, and therefore fastball counts. He's getting a lot fewer first pitch strikes, so that puts him in the drivers seat to begin with. Why are pitchers starting out with ball one? It's not like Curtis has ever been a free swinger. Maybe the answer here is that pitchers are nibbling around the edges as a result of often starting out 1-0? They know he can punish them, and they nibble and eventually lose him.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ceetar wrote: 62,971 If you sub out the second game of this season when Harvey pitched for the second game of last season it's closer to 51,000. So sure. give or take 3500 fans a game. (you said a week ago so he's probably not talking about the recent homestand. this is the definition of small sample size) It's not a small sample size because Megdal isn't trying to extrapolate a full season attendance figure. He's comparing last year's attendance after x home games to this year's attendance after x home games. A. It's still a 5% increase. It's a small sample and there are various noises in data that small. Things like weather, hockey teams in the playoffs, etc. He's throwing away Harvey's start like it's a blip in small sample size data because it fit's his narrative, but fails to account for anything else. B. He's also suggesting that the Mets are lying about the ticket sale increase. No, not suggested, outright stated it. Ignoring for a moment that the ensuing 4 games have already started to prove the Mets right and him wrong, the answer is right in front of him. If the Mets sold more tickets in advance this season, where does he think fans bought them to? Probably cold April games against the Marlins and Phillies? No, not unless Harvey is pitching his first game at Citi Field. Oh look, he was! Turns out that those tickets sold do indeed count towards percent increases in sales. Where else? Perhaps an early May series against the division rival? Oh look, the Mets practically sold out last weekend. I bet a lot of those other tickets were sold for summer games, when it's warm. It wouldn't be hard to look, unless you're going to look at the available tickets for certain games and claim the site lies.

62,971 If you sub out the second game of this season when Harvey pitched for the second game of last season it's closer to 51,000. So sure. give or take 3500 fans a game. (you said a week ago so he's probably not talking about the recent homestand. this is the definition of small sample size)

Edgy MD wrote: He's looked very different to me. Significantly less slugging, and significantly more on-basing. Fangraphs had him at 1.2 WAR last season, and on a pace for 1.8 this season. Mainly due to crappy defense ratings though. rWAR has him on pace for like 3.6 this year, seems to think he's played better defense.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Nor do you rip the guys who get you there. You look to replace the sub-average guys, which right now, are at catcher, second, third, and short. Hopefully, some or all of that can be solved internally. I assume you're talking about the 2015 Mets. If you are, and I think you are, their offense kinda blows, too. They're in first place in spite of their bats. The offense is bad enough that as sucky as Granderson is, the Mets have several starters even worse. But that doesn't mean that Grandy's very good. his stats mean he doesn't _suck_ though. Also, small sample size. If he goes 1/3 with a HR and a BB tonight his SLG jumps like 30 points to .239/.369/.359 Meaning he's one good offensive day from going from okay to good and a hot series from great.

I mean, I can point to all the facts I want, if you're not going to believe them, don't believe them.

The average team with average players could tread water if it has two great guys coming back, the potential for midseason trades, a history of better performance from at least 2 of it's hitters, and a 5 game lead over the only team that anyone thinks is any good. (A team that had Strasburg pulled from the game for discomfort) That team? That team is on the cusp of a playoff berth all season. It doesn't hinge on if Granderson is merely 5% better than average or closer to 20%. Sure, that would help, but it's the other guys that are the problem.

dgwphotography wrote: Yeah, but how many times has Dilson's helmet gone flying during a swing and a miss? Just for the entertainment factor alone, Bartolo wins this in a walk. Will Bart wins this in that he provides value in other ways that help prevent his ineptitude from costing the Mets wins.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ceetar wrote: I don't really care how much he's making, nor do I care what position he plays. I care about the aggregate of the entire team. So if the Mets had Stargell and Aaron and Bench and Morgan and Seaver and Carlton in their primes on the same team, it'd be OK with you if my mother was their starting shortstop, right? Yes. Though you exaggerate, I'd absolutely take a SS that hits like Rey Ordonez and fields like Wilmer Flores if the rest of the team is that? That team wins. You're also wrong about the average thing. Average is good in baseball. The average hitter is .253/.318/.397. That plays. That's better than half the players on most teams. It's hard to be that good. Yes, you need guys to play above that, and that Granderson is only a tick above isn't great, but the problem is still that the Mets lost two guys hitting WAY above that line.

run scoring is the most important thing. Only Duda has a higher wRC+ (and Wright and d'Arnaud) run scoring is also the Mets #1 problem, not the % contribution from one singular player. Yes, he should be helping more, but at least he's helping instead of hurting.

Bay also played in a higher offensive environment. John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: League average OBP is 310. 310!! .325,.321,.319 in Bay's 3 years.