Ceetar

Not sure it can get worse than this bunch.

Edgy MD wrote: They wouldn't lose international spending money, so much as lose the license to spend their own money. In other words, let's screw some Venezuelan kid and his family in the name of competitive balance when it's all about the league restraining labor costs. Not that they're not basically getting screwed, but the money isn't going away, it's being redistributed. the pool size remains the same. They're not getting _more_ screwed.

Centerfield wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I'm still saying no on the closer. That money is better funnelled toward the Darvish fund. I'd be ok with this, especially since signing Darvish would allow you to move Gsellman, or Lugo, or Wheeler to the pen, where he might turn into Wade Davis. I just think it's more likely that the Mets go 4 years for Davis, than 6-7 for Darvish. I hope not. Even if Darvish was garbage for the last 3 of those 6 years, he'd still likely provide more value than Davis even if goes back to being amazing and his BB% stops it's climb.

Mex17 wrote: Ceetar wrote: He's 9th in UZR/150 which is Ultimate Zone Rating adjusted to a 150 game schedule/sample. Factors in arm, double plays ,range, etc. I'm a little surprised that it's that low, but that's the type of thing I was looking for. Say you have one of the highest UZRs in the league as a second baseman, and this results in a spectacular play in a big spot when the opponent is primed to score or just to keep a runner of the basepaths before the big slugger comes up (so that your defense keeps a double from resulting in an RBI or prevents the solo home run from being a two-run shot). That kind of stuff should counteract a low slugging percentage when you are evaluating the entire player. That's luck though. You could go an entire season without getting that ball in that spot in that situation. You're actually talking about a rather narrow area in which Gordon gets to a ball and another guy doesn't. UZR, defensive runs saved, etc, attempt to average that out. It's the equivalent of saying you should give a guy that hits .220/.260/.450 more credit for his home runs because they might come in key spots. For every ball you can point to and think "Gordon would've gotten that" there are more spots you can point to and say "Walker would've driven that guy in." There's also thoughts that you can mitigate a lot of bad defense with good shifting (something the Mets didn't do last year) making hte difference between a meh defender and a good one less.

If the signing team contributes to revenue sharing but didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold in the previous season, the team gives up its second-highest draft pick and $500K of international bonus pool money in the next int’l signing period (which opens on July 2). edit: That 500, along with any other moneys given up this way, are distributed evenly among teams that didn't give up any.

but you're including Cespedes on this list of free agents but the Mets aren't participating. you're confusing me. And they're paying Wright too, who definitely qualifies as one of those guys in stature at least. There is also only 1-2 guys this season that even come close to that, and it's Darvish and Otani. Arrieta maybe? But you can always make cases against signing these big free agents at this point, and as much as the Mets should get Darvish I could certainly understand an argument against it. The Mets are in a weird spot this offseason, where they maybe have guys at positions but maybe don't, and it's hard to know which position to sign someone to and move around and which guys to trust to the job. Rosario, Smith, Conforto? d'Arnaud/Plawecki? even Wright has the potential to play in 2018 and while you don't let him stop you from trading for Arenado, you do have to consider where you play him if he can play at any point. I get why Gordon appears interesting because second is probably the most 'open' position. But Gordon sucks.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Two first place finishes since 1988. In a mostly five team division. In New York City. Not missing out? Really? I don't even know how to apply what the Mets "were" in 1988 to today. but since 2005 they've had 6 winning seasons and 3 playoff berths (and 2 near misses) go back to 1997 and they've had 11 winning seasons and 5 playoff berths. They're more likely to be winners than losers. you cherry picked 1988. go back to 84 and it's 18 winning seasons and 7 berths and still winning more than losing. Their payroll was up there pretty much entirely before the recession/Madoff/Stadium trio. You're also setting the bar for 'big free agent' rather high. What, they haven't signed any 10 year deals so they're cheap? There's a rare confluence of events in which a top 10 guy becomes available, in a Mets need, and is even remotely worth it. Should they throw 40/400 at Harper next year?

d'Kong76 wrote: A CPF friend of ours just told me there are tickets available here: Mets.com/Presale Code is PRESALE (didn't know if this was public knowledge so sharing) I haven't read my emails, I assume they there. I'd advise against limited release presales myself.

Mex17 wrote: Ceetar wrote: In terms of wRC+ as in, RUNS created, weighted for park and what not, he's 32nd among all 2B with at least 200 PA. I'm not trying to be snarky, but is there a comparable stat to this one that quantifies outs created or runs prevented? you mean on the defensive side? Defensive stats are a little less reliable. (in that we're not as sure they're capturing the whole picture. It's a lot easier to estimate how many runs score after a single based on the entire history of baseball than to figure out how many more balls one guy fields than another) Gordon has the best fangraphs Def meaning Fielding and positional adjustments But he's 14th in Defensive Runs Saved with 3. He's 9th in UZR/150 which is Ultimate Zone Rating adjusted to a 150 game schedule/sample. Factors in arm, double plays ,range, etc.

Centerfield wrote: But they really do not bring in another team's superstar on a big money deal. Beltran. Bobby Bonilla. I think that's it. again, this obfuscates the Santana trade and sign. The Mets, having been competitive to the last day, missing because of pitching, spend big money and big prospects on 200+ IP of HOF quality pitching. Literally found a way to acquire the #1 or #2 pitcher in all of baseball.

I'm always amazed at reading these how bad these papers are. Tebow's out because this is presumably a Mets/baseball thing. Stories about ranches and cars (even without the mockery) out too. Club Amed I guess, and Spring for the fences. Mostly for the bravado and the pun.

just about every 'big time' free agent is signed past his prime. That's pretty much part of the deal. And to say the Mets don't do it is a huge square peg into your round narrative hole. It's being willfully ignorant of acquiring guys, even if not by being the highest bidder in an offseason negotiation, like Piazza, Alomar, Santana.. And it also ascribes too much of the credit for making the postseason by the 'big spenders' on these guys. The Angels acquired one of the best hitters in baseball and then developed the next one to play on the same team and suck.

Gordon may be 8th in OBP among qualifying 2B, but that's mostly because of empty AVG. He doesn't walk. In terms of wRC+ as in, RUNS created, weighted for park and what not, he's 32nd among all 2B with at least 200 PA. He created most of the value with his legs, and a 78% success rate isn't bad, but all it takes is some bad luck, a fraction slower, a nagging injury for that value to be all but negated. The Mets really need another hitter they can rely on, with SS/1B being rookies, it not being that easy to upgrade catcher or count on either Plawecki or d'Arnaud to be more than me, and the potential for Comforto to miss some time early and/or Nimmo/Lagares not being hitters. Gordon can't hit.

well Matz and Lugo are curveball guys and Callaway is a curveball guy so it seems like they'll be given a shot at least.

Centerfield wrote: Guys, this is like Luis Castillo without the walks. for more money.

Let's try this one. 8/28/2007. Marlon Anderson is NOT called out for interference at second on a slide against the Phillies and the game is tied. Reyes drives in Anderson in the next AB. Wagner comes in and closes it out. Mets win and are up 4 instead of 2. Getting Wagner into the game has him 'fresher' for the next day and they also hold on to win that one instead of losing in a walk-off. Now they're up 5 instead of 1. They continue the early September winning streak and while they still falter a bunch late, the Phillies have already started playing more rookies and shut down guys with nagging injuries. They never get closer than 4 and the Mets win the division by 5 games. The Mets crappy bullpen is still crappy and they get demolished by the Rockies in four games. the Mets still sign Santana, Castillo. But they make different bullpen choices. The Phillies, not bolstered by some sort of historic finish don't invest in some of their young players as heavily until the second half of 2008. The Mets win again but the Phillies do grab the wild card instead of the Brewers. They get clobbered by the Cubs, the Mets knock off the Dodgers, and the Cubs, and then the Rays to win the WS. Across town, the Yankees are bristling at the Mets success and want to make headlines. Instead of waiting until 2009 to make the big splash, they were tempted to do so in 2008, signing Torii Hunter and Livan Hernandez. This does not go as well as the signings they really made in 2009, and as such do not win it all in 2009. The Mets do not either, the injuries still catch up with them, though perhaps not as harshly. 2010 is not great either, and the Mets decide to cut ties with Minaya and Randolph anyway. They still hire Alderson and Collins, and things proceed from there. They still get hit with Madoff, but the increased revenues of the team being successful, and victorious, keeps the Mets budget in the black, even if they can't quite spend into the red anymore. Who's next?

Cespedes isn't in the same class, but I get your point. This season that player is probably Darvish and/or Ohtani? J.D. Martinez maybe as a hitter. Lorenzo Cain perhaps, as the only CFer out there with a bat? I like Carlos Santana more than Hosmer or Moustakas. But I dunno.

Mets Willets Point wrote: Ceetar wrote: I could so do 2006 ,but I don't have an hour right now. what about 2015 Duda makes the throw and we're back to KC? That sounds great, but write an alternate history first. It doesn't have to be long. but it will be. i just wondering why you stopped at 2006

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Rosenthal reporting the Mets are to hire Ruin Tommorow Jr. Aka, Ruben Amaro Jr., as new 1b/of coach That's why he did in Boston last year. He'll replace Tom Goodwin. Who will replace Amaro. Who will replace Goodwin. Who will replace Amaro. help i'm stuck

I could so do 2006 ,but I don't have an hour right now. what about 2015 Duda makes the throw and we're back to KC?

Centerfield wrote: Did you see the offensive firepower those World Series teams were churning out? 7-8 hitters with OPS's in the range of .850-900. The Cubs and Yankees were stacked too. We are lightyears away offensively. A lineup that has Lagares, d'Arnaud, Rosario, Smith and the pitcher? Just give up now. Ces and Conforto are nice if healthy, but we drop off pretty precipitously after that. the Astros were light years better than everyone offensively. The Dodgers had a wRC+ of 104. the Mets were at 100. that means the Dodgers were merely 4% better. The Nats were also at 100, which actually means we're operating from a rather neutral standpoint in terms of our competition.

Mex17 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I don't get that the conversation (here? elsewhere?) is coalescing around re-signing Jay Bruce. And I certainly don't see anybody else banging the drum for Dee Gordon. In this thread, the talk has been of the need to acquire two bats, one for the infield and one for the outfield, and one slugger and one contact hitter. I'd prefer good players though, and neither of those qualify.

metirish wrote: Ugh, didn't even stay up for it , Dodgers just didn't look like doing much. A lot of talk about Beltran's tears on Twitter, and how he's a sure fire HOF. Is he?? I would imagine there are plenty of comparable players not in the HOF These guys I think were pretty good. [tweet]https://twitter.com/Rosscarey/status/760990446491271168[/tweet]

MFS62 wrote: Looks like Dave Eiland is the new pitching coach. https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-dave-eiland-pat-roessler-1.14714629 Later An interesting one. Another Yankee cast off, and perhaps another "your loss is our gain" one. It certainly seemed like he was fired from the Yankees for an undisclosed personal leave issue.

oe: and as to this thread title: Only TWO choices? If we phrase it as choices.. -Do we continue to punt defense, or do we double down on having Rosario being maybe the best defensive SS we've had there in a long time by planning to play Lagares more, and bringing in guys for the infield with a little more defense? This might mean moving away from Flores. -Do we trust in some recovery from our pitchers with the new staff and fill it in with some mid-rotation type guys, or do we go all out and sign top-flight pitchers to 'assure' a quality staff?