I don't think we know as much about stolen bases as we think we do. And I don't think 75% is the real break-even point. Indeed, I think that point shifts a lot over the course of a game. I think the accidental fallacy of Moneyball was convincing people that such understandings as the break-even point in stealing, the existence of clutch hitting, the value of defense were closed matters — something I don't think Michael Lewis or Billy Beane or Bill James would have endorsed. I think we opened up new and important questions, but some things we stopped refining, and so an old set of prejudices was largely displaced by a new set. The point was — or should have been — the ongoing rexamination of received wisdom, rather than the creation of a newer, equally closed category of received wisdom.