"Did Your Team Blow It at the Trade Deadline?" Neil Paine and Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com look closely at the math behind when a team should muscle up at the deadline, when they should sell, ultimately concluding. A team should virtually never stand pat. The Mets were a borderline better-to-sell-than-buy team. The Mets were dithery. The Mets, once deciding to buy, should have gone further, maybe buying a star second baseman as well. Now in fairness, the authors were looking at the math, more than the particulars of any team, but they are alleged baseball fans, so they shouldn't fear calculating in situational nuances, either by working them into the math, or arbitrarily noting exceptional situations. Because I kind of disagree on all parts. With regard to standing pat, what if what you have a mediocre team is primarily (or entirely!) populated by talented pre-free agency or pre-arbitration players? You may not think it's your year, and you may not want to flip some of your talent on the small chance that it can make it your year, but you may still want to keep that unit together for future seasons. Think of the 1983 Mets. And even then, you may see the Rusty Staubs that you may be able to sell of as guys you want to keep around to help shepherd your future juggernaut into maturity. With regard to borderline teams, consideration has to be given to whether a team can reasonably expect to get better. Younger teams might be expected to get better in the second half compared to older teams. Teams with high-profile players returning from injury might be expected to get better as compared to teams that have been relatively healthy. The Mets were not dithery. By all reports, even as they walked away from the Brewers, they were aggressively pursuing other deals. They walked away from Milwaukee not because their faith flagged with regard to buying, but because it flagged with regard to buying Carlos Gomez. With regard to the Mets buying a star second baseman, didn't they kind of do that by buying two halves of one in Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe? Anyhow, I think the math is an important measure, though I'm sure many teams use a similar formula and likely re-calculate from day to day throughout July. And then make a gut call anyway.