Frayed Knot

[u:jmsmq5ik]Pirates @ Cardinals, 1:10 PM[/u:jmsmq5ik] -- directly opposite Mets @ Phils and in some cases (depending on your location) replacing it on your TV screen from time to time. Michael Wacha for StL. He was banished to the bullpen for a while but then the Cards decided that Jamie Garcia was even worse so Wacha is back in even though his last outing consisted of giving up 7 runs over 2.2 IP to the Reds in their 15-2 loss earlier in the week. Chad Kuhl (who I've never heard of) is going for the Bucs. The former Delaware Blue Hen (9th round pick 2013) is a rookie making his 14th ML start since being called up in late June. 5-4; 4.25 ERA; 1.28 WHiP [u:jmsmq5ik]Dodgers @ Giants, 4:05 PM[/u:jmsmq5ik], Free via MLB.tv Clayton Kershaw is making his 5th start since coming off the DL. He's given up 3 runs (2 earned) in total going 3, 5, 6, and 7 innings in the four starts. He faced the Giants two starts ago allowing 1 run on 3 hits w/7 Ks over 6 IP Ty Blach (pronounced: Block) for SF. 4th ever ML appearance, 2nd start. 1st one didn't go so well: 2 runs on 4 hits + 3 BBs before being yanked after 3 innings vs SD last Sunday.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: If the Mets lose Monday's game, they're not eliminated. They'd go to San Francisco* to play the Giants on Tuesday, and if they win they'd fly back to St. Louis to play Wednesday's Wild Card game. * I would have guessed that this game would be played in New York, but the rule does say that Club C would be the host. I guess that's based on the idea that the only club who doesn't get the chance to lose and still survive, SF in this case, should have that game at home and also not have to suffer the logistical nightmare of taking a last-minute (and possibly cross-country) flight only after the results of the first game are known for a game the next day. The loser of play-in game #1 at least knows where they're headed if/when they lose.

OK, so that makes it: WC #1 = 89.07% WC #2 = 6.25% 2-Way Tie w/Cards = 1.56% 3-Way Tie = 3.13% BP puts us in at 98%, which, if you add my WC #1 odds to WC #2 odds then give us a 50/50 shot at prevailing in a 2-Way play-in and a 1/3 shot at surviving a 3-Way play-in 89.07 + 6.25 + 0.78 + 1.565 = 97.665 I suspect BP is checking their work against mine but I don't know that for sure.

So did we ever establish how the tie is broken if we tie the Cardinals for the two WC slots? There's one and only one combination in which that situation can come up (out of a possible 27): if we lose both remaining games, the Giants lose both of theirs, and the Cardinals win twice. Those outcomes would leave us and the Cards tied at 86 wins with Giants on the outside looking in with 85. There'd be no play-in game at that point but I'm not sure of the tie-breaking procedure to determine who's #1, who's #2 and therefore where Wednesday's game is to be played. So aside from that, like I said there are 27 remaining combinations of outcomes (3 x 3 x 3) - We wind up in the #1 WC slot in 22 of them, 20 of them free and clear of both teams plus two others where we're tied w/the Giants for slot #1 which is the same as winning outright since we hold the tie-breaker. ODDS = 89.07% - In two other cases we wind up with WC #2 all to ourselves: Mets lose twice + Giants win twice + Cards either lose once or lose twice. ODDS = 4.69% - There's the one case mentioned above where we tie with the Cards for WC #1 with SF out of it: ODDS = 1.56% So that's 25 of the 27 cases where we're assured of playing one game for the right to meet the Cubs. TOTAL ODDS = 95.32% That leaves the two we don't want to see where we'll be forced into a Monday play-in or maybe even a Monday/Tuesday play-in: - Mets lose both, Giants win both, Cards win both: This puts us in a play-in vs StL for WC #2. ODDS = 1.56% OR - Mets lose both, Giants win once, Cards win both: that outcome throws us all into a 3-way tie and multiple play-in games which I don't even know how they'd be set up. ODDS = 3.13%

Those in the NYC area are going to get the Met game exclusively just as those in StL will get the other game. It's for those not in the NYC or Philly, or Pitt or StL markets who are going to get the switching as the lords at FOX see fit.

SF v LA just getting started. Bumgarner vs Rich Hill. Hill actually has the better stats for the year, particularly lately. Vin Scully on the mike and it's on MLBN

So I was curious to see what was on FOX HD, one of a number of FOX channels I get, at 4:00 and it's Kung Fu Panda 2. So it's understandable that they can't put another game on instead of that. I assume college football is on some of the others and everyone knows college football is more important than baseball. Sorry, 1:00... that's when Turbo, the Snail is on. You're looking at FXX. The logical place to put a spare game would be Fox Sports 1 or FS2, but those are showing Baylor vs Iowa State football on '1' and Bundesliga (German) Soccer on '2' But tomorrow will be a FOX network game, that's why there's no SNY telecast like there would be if they shunted this off to one of their satellite channels. It also likely means that the two games they're carrying will be the ones that will NOT be available through MLB.tv even though all the games they do offer this weekend will be free even without an account. And now it's 5-0 StL so both games will still mean something tomorrow.

Cards just went up 3-0, still batting bottom 6

And it's official, Sunday will most definitely NOT be our final game of the season!! No guarantees beyond that, but that's enough for right now considering where we were six weeks ago. Stayed tuned for more details later tonight and/or tomorrow afternoon.

Edgy MD wrote: Tough to see Mackanin tossed from this game, because I don't think he has too many ahead of him. I think the team just gave him an extension. oe: signed an extension back in March thru 2017 w/an option for '18

He's sort of been just boringly effective. That's a good thing to be in a set-up reliever.

Man, Reyes could have -- and probably should have -- been doubled-up on that play. That would have been the bonehead move of the year had that happened.

You can't stop Jay Bruce you can only hope to contain him. And you can't contain him either.

btw, ALL games this weekend are free on MLB.tv if you want to use an 'alternate device' to monitor out of town games while watching the Mets.

That inning also took Asher from about two innings worth of pitches over three innings to nearly five innings worth of pitches through four. And that means we're just thatmuch closer to getting into the Philly pen.

Multiple two outs hits w/RiSP ... as the recurring line by Butch & Sundance asked: Who are those guys?

Asher was the guy who was on the mound for the only loss to the Phils in the last series, being the beneficiary of Gilmartin & Montero putting us in a 10-0 hole. He held the Mets scoreless thru 4, then allowed 4 in the 5th and even though all were unearned that was it for him for the night. NYM bats chipped away at the Philly pen after he departed and had the runners on base to tie it up but left seven on in the last three innings. I think we owe him an ass-kicking.

And while the weather's not looking good for tonight, it's also not looking like the total washout it might have been a couple days ago. Saturday might be hit or miss. Sunday ... well by Sunday we'll have things sewn up already so who cares.

Every once in a while I wonder if anyone keeps track of how Mets record correlates to the announced 'State Farm Dealer of the Day'.

Thursday's Tiger - Indians game getting rained could wind up throwing a big ol' hairy wrench into the AL WC race as they'll need a Monday finish to make the game up if it winds up having a say in the final standings. And if the make-up game forces a tie for one or both of the WCs then That will need to be settled prior to the regularly scheduled AL WC game which is currently slotted for Tuesday. Tigers start this final weekend 1.5 games behind both Baltimore & Toronto for the two WC slots and 1/2 a game ahead of the charging Mariners. Tigers are at Atlanta for the weekend Blue Jays @ Boston Orioles at Yanx Mariners @ Oakland

Once a game is past the 6th inning the umps have to power to go to replay either on their own or via prodding/pleading from a manager, even one who has already burned his challenges. So they clearly could have done this on their own without altering the existing rules. Not sure that I totally buy the quote (above somewhere) that John Franco says the umps said they had a plane to catch but, even if that story is embellished, the crew in blue certainly couldn't have been very motivated to stick around and quite possibly turn that into an extra-inning affair especially seeing as how it had been raining much of the night as it was and so I'm sure all involved were already cold, wet, and grumpy.

I don't disagree with you, I'm just saying that that's the way things have evolved. It's like football coaches who can't 'go for two' unless the card in their hand with the game/score situation tells them that they can and if the card says they should they won't ever not do it. In the interest of not getting things wrong and looking foolish afterward, teams have pre-decided how their decisions are going to be made. Personally, I hate the whole 'eye in the sky' stuff to begin with. Not just because it slows the game up and takes the decision-making off the field, but it's that micro-managing stuff which is what led to calls being challenged because: on a pop-up slide to 2nd, it appears that the runner's cleats came off the bag by a 1/4 inch for a 1/4 second and it looks as if the laces of the fielder's glove was making contact with the sleeve of the runner's jersey during that 1/4 second and therefore the call needs to be over-turned following 30 seconds of dugout to booth consultation followed by three more minutes of umpire to bunker cross-chatter; situations that absolutely no one was in favor of reversing when they argued for replay on the grounds that "getting it right" is the holy grail that should over-ride all other concerns. I suspect that MLB was fearful of a situation where the home team could set up some sort of relay system that would give them an advantage in cases of close calls and therefore decided that a standardized phone system with contact upstairs was needed to even things out. But, as many 'fixes' often do it's caused at least as many problems as it's solved.

OK, so our odds took bit of a hit last night with the double out-of-town wins (why couldn't one of them have just Tied!! like the Cubs & Pirates?!?). The same eight scenarios still exist -- two outright misses plus six ties of some sort -- for us NOT clinching a free and clear WC spot this weekend, but seeing as how the overall number of possibilities have gone down and the ones that disappeared and are no longer possible (Cards and/or Giants losing 4 straight!) were all good ones for us, the chance of one of those eight non-clinching situations showing up got a little larger. There are now 64 combinations still possible (4 x 4 x 4) and 56 of them get us in (87.5%) although weighting the outcomes to reflect that 2-1 or 1-2 splits are more likely for all the teams than are 3-0 or 0-3 sweeps puts the odds at: Eliminated by Sunday = 0.78% -- (Mets get swept while Cards win 3 + Giants win 2, or Mets get swept while Cards win 3 + Giants win 3) 2-Way Tie w/StL = 2.93% 2-Way Tie w/SFG = 0.59% 3-Way Tie = 4.10% METS WIN!!! = 91.6% BP says 96.5% - which is probably where it should be if you figure 91.6% plus the odds of surviving any two or three way play-in tussles.

Nymr83 wrote: bad job by the reds - its a game winning run if it stands, why is the manager waiting for anyone to tell him to challenge? just challenge! Because I think managers have become too dependent on their 'eye in the sky' to tell them which calls deserve challenging. In fact I suspect it's probably team policy in most cases that the managers aren't even the ones to be making the call as evidenced by a call the Mets failed to challenge a few weeks back. Sandy wound up blowing his stack over that one, not at Terry but rather at the breakdown somewhere in the communication chain that never informed Terry that he should. I wasn't even aware until last night that there was this '10/30' rule actually written into the book -- 10 seconds for the bench to notify the umps that they're thinking of challenging and then 30 seconds (30 more, or 20 on top of the original 10??) to actually request that they go to the headphones -- but apparently that doesn't even apply on 'game-ending' plays when the rule says that the bench needs to appeal immediately. [Reds' mgr] Price's argument is that if four umps couldn't tell from their stations that the ball hit beyond the fence how are their bench supposed to know from nearly 400 feet away while in their subterranean dugout without getting help from upstairs and that the crowd noise made it impossible to know that their spies were trying to call them. By the time he did get word the umps were already halfway down the tunnel and telling him that his 10 seconds had expired.

And now it's becoming apparent that the ground rules say that a ball hitting where that one hit should have been a GR double but that the Reds -- due to crowd noise making them unable to hear their dugout phone they claim -- didn't notify the umps quickly enough after the play that they were thinking of challenging. To which I respond: NOW we're enforcing a time rule on challenges?!?!