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Frayed Knot

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Everything posted by Frayed Knot

  1. Frayed Knot
    Muffy PH-ing in Washington ... kind of a big deal for two reasons 1) it's his first AB in two weeks, been resting his sore But-Tox (as Forest Gump would say) 2) if he gets a hit it puts him in the lead for the NL batting title as DJ Lemahieu sitting out 'protecting' his lead ... And he flies out after roping one foul down the RF line!!
  2. Frayed Knot
    Dodgers got one back but then left two more on base when a 2-out fly died on the track in straight-away CF
  3. Frayed Knot
    Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: I was surprised that Howard "only" has 382 home runs. And I think about 380 of them came against the Mets. Got to remember that he wasn't a full-time player until age 26 (had 24 HRs prior to turning 26) as the Phils had him waiting around for Jim Thome to grow old. Only 48 vs the Mets, 2nd most off any team. Braves = 52
  4. Frayed Knot
    Too bad Seattle losing late last night (to pitiful Oakland, in 10 innings, leaving the tying run on 3rd) eliminated them or else there'd be one more team in the mix and even more opportunities to throw everything into a YUGE mess. Cleveland's injury situation to what had been a strong starting staff is in almost as bad a shape as ours so they definitely don't want any part of an 'extra' game on Monday and probably wouldn't go all out if forced into one. There's also the matter of a 1/2 game gap between them and the BoSox (Cleve 1/2 game better) for potential HF advantage down the road to be settled, but I assume MLB will just allow the incomplete record to stand and not play the extra game simply for purposes of settling that score.
  5. Frayed Knot
    Frayed Knot wrote: Centerfield wrote: We don't even need 8 (though it certainly would be nice). Three straight wins against St. Louis would make things really interesting with plenty of time left in the season. Yeah we don't need a streak so much as they just have to win consistently. As with the East division last year, this year's WC race is being left open by a bunch of teams none of which is likely to hit 90 wins. So with 38 games left it's possible that they could squeak in by going 25-13 or even a game or two worse. 25 wins would put them at 87 on the year, the WC-leading SFG are currently headed for 88.5 That was from this thread on August 23rd when they had just climbed back to .500 (62-62) after taking two straight from ... the Giants!! Record since then is 25-12 Wins = 87 (with a shot at 88). And, yeah, they pretty much squeaked in.
  6. Frayed Knot
    And then there were four ... and only one causes a tie. Giants Win + Cards Win = Giants as #2 WC Giants Win + Cards Lose = Giants as #2 WC Giants Lose + Cards Lose = Giants as #2 WC Giants Lose + Cards Win = Monday Play-in Game for #2 WC So it's around an 87.5% shot that we get the Giants and 12.5% that we get a Wednesday visit from the Cardinals - unless you have reason to suspect that one team has a notable advantage over another in either of tomorrow's two games or in a potential Monday play-in.
  7. Frayed Knot
    Eight possibilities left and half of them will disappear within the next three hours or so. If Cardinals [u:6kwfayzu]Lose[/u:6kwfayzu] on Sunday AND ... - Giants Win Saturday + Win Sunday -- SF is WC #2 - Giants Win Saturday + Lose Sunday -- SF is WC #2 - Giants Lose Saturday + Win Sunday -- SF is WC #2 - Giants lose both days = Tie for WC #2 If Cardinals [u:6kwfayzu]Win[/u:6kwfayzu] on Sunday AND ... - Giants Win Saturday + Win Sunday -- SF is WC #2 - Giants Win Saturday + Lose Sunday -- Tie for WC #2 - Giants Lose Saturday + Win Sunday -- Tie for WC #2 - Giants Lose both days -- StL is WC #2 Giants as WC = 50.0 % Cards as WC = 12.5 % Tie for WC = 37.5 % C'MON TIE!!!!
  8. Frayed Knot
    So what we want to root for now* is for the Giants and Cards to tie for the 2nd WC and have them spend Bumgarner & Carlos Martinez against each other on Monday while we sit back and wait for Wednesday. * why is this just now occurring to me?!?!
  9. Frayed Knot
    Odds are 100% of a game a CitiField on Wednesday.
  10. Frayed Knot
    What a brilliant defensive switch to have Conforto out there!!! Nice also to do it in front of the home crowd. Oh wait, this is Philly? Was confused by the noise.
  11. Frayed Knot
    Gyorko just HR'd in StL. But we can deflate those emotions pretty quickly.
  12. Frayed Knot
    Philly with about 750 pounds of batters due up this inning: Howard, Rupp, Paredes
  13. Frayed Knot
    Lefty Specialist wrote: Familia better be getting these kind of strike calls when he comes in..... Been a big strike zone all day (just ask Yeonis) so hopefully nothing changes here.
  14. Frayed Knot
    WHAT A ROPE!!!!
  15. Frayed Knot
    Terry opts for speed over defense as he runs for Loney w/Campbell. I concur. Less happy about the subsequent sac bunt by d'Arnaud, but I can live with it.
  16. Frayed Knot
    Not looking quite as rosy as a few minutes ago. It's tied in the game in Missouri and down to a one-run lead in the one being played in Pennsylvania
  17. Frayed Knot
    And besides all of that. I don't want Terry to determine strategy based on what's going on somewhere else. Win your game and never mind about the rest.
  18. Frayed Knot
    Chad Ochoseis wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: They're into the 6th in Santa Louisa with the three 1st inning runs by Pitt still the only scoring. The Mets should slow the pace of this game down and get as much info as they can on the Cardinals game. It could affect who to bring in to pitch the late innings. They'll never slow it down enough because Bastardo is in the game for Pitt and nothing moves slower than him. At the moment he's trying to bail the Pirates out of a 2nd & 3rd/no outs (not his doing). He got a K for out #1 but now a walk/WP has allowed the first StL run and it's 1st & 3rd w/one out. Pitching change now for Pirates.
  19. Frayed Knot
    They're into the 6th in Santa Louisa with the three 1st inning runs by Pitt still the only scoring.
  20. Frayed Knot
    A straight-in slide and d'Arnaud is very safe there. His 'evasive' type slide wasn't necessary and it almost made him out. I can almost hear Keith bawling him out for it.
  21. Frayed Knot
    Chad Ochoseis wrote: Subtle error here in the calc - assuming 50% probability of a win of any given game, each team has a 25% likelihood of winning 0 games, a 50% likelihood of winning 1, and a 25% likelihood of winning 2. The calc above doesn't take into account that a team is twice as likely to win exactly one game than zero or two. There are four possible outcomes for each team - win none (one outcome), win one (two outcomes), or win two (one outcome). So 4^3 = 64 outcomes in total. I took those into consideration in my calculations. Rather than treating a 1-1 finish as two different outcomes I counted it as one but with twice the likelihood of happening as compared to either 2-0 or 0-2. And, yes, the 3-way playoff outcome is more complicated that I stated. I actually should have given the Mets a 2 of 3 shot at coming out of it since 2 of the 3 teams will survive but, like you said, it's not that simple either.
  22. Frayed Knot
    Scoreless 1st inning in Philadelphia In St Loo, however, a 3R HR by Jung Ho Kang in top 1 and it's 3-0 Pitt
  23. Frayed Knot
    Ahhh, so that's what they weren't showing us on the TV broadcast last night!
  24. Frayed Knot
    MFS62 wrote: The most incompetent umpire in recent history, Angel Hernandez, was at third base last night. Does that mean he'll be behind the plate tonight? No matter where he will be stationed, I'd hate to see the game turn on one of his miscalls. Nope, the umps rotate in the other direction, so he not only won't have the plate today but shouldn't be behind the plate in this series at all. It's the first thing I thought of when I saw him at 3rd last night.
  25. Frayed Knot
    Yeah, despite the fact that the Cards were a 6-3 winner in our 'Who'd You Rather?' poll, a loss by them is our quickest and surest way to meaningful October baseball.
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