Frayed Knot

]The White Sox have an excellent bullpen. One great arm after another. And they've recently thrown this Bobby Jenks guy into the mix. He became a hot-shot in the Angels org of few years back by throwing 100 mph - only he he couldn't control it. He also came from some real white-trash, trailer-park background and had trouble controlling himself on more than a few cases (and especially after he polished off a few cases). Seems like Ozzie's now using him as the #1 closer. And as I type this Cleveland is getting to the ChiSox pen and has closed to 4-3 The thing is, if the Indians are going to get swept away here the whole NYY/BOS series is essentially going to mean nothing after all the hype.

Benson - 4.6 Anderson - 1.8 Jacobs - 1.5 Heilman - 1.5 Wright - 0.3 Reyes - 0.3

]McKeon aint goin anywhere. Oh I'd be shocked if he's still manager next year. Now he'll likely remain in the Marlin Org somewhere - special asst to owner Loria or something - but I think they'll be looking for a mgr. Whether Piniella fits there I'm not sure. I think Bal'mer is a very real possibility for him. btw, the whole buyout thing became official last night and Lou WILL be able to take any job he wants. Sometimes buyouts make the guy sit out the year in orde to get the pay, but not here. Probably got a partial payment for '06.

It was Hampton, not Jones, that became Wright. My bad.

="cooby"]Did I hear them right? Some guy was trying to carry a deer up or down the stairs in his house? And got hurt? Who does that? That was Rox SS Clint Barmes, who was off to a great rookie season when he got hurt sometime around late May. The initial excuse he gave ws that he slipped on the stairs at his condo carrying groceries. Turned out that he was actually carrying a load of deer meat from a hunting excursion he had gone on w/Rox star Todd Helton. He said he changed his story so as to not drag Helton's name into it. So who had 'Marlon Anderson' as the answer to the guy who hit the longest Mets HR this year? He smacked the snot outta that thing - about 1/3 of the way up the right-hand side of the scoreboard for those who didn't see it!!

Yeah, those fargin' seriously, I just used a racist word when I really meant "Guardians" blew the chance to make this REAL fuckin' interesting this weekend. It's still gonna be good, but now the winner of today's NY/Bos game is in the playoffs or at least survives until a Monday play-in game. The ChiSox winning cements for them the best record in the AL, meaning that a WC winner coming from the East will face Chicago in the opening round. Here's how it breaks down now: Yanx & Boston are in the exact same situation obviously - except that the Yanx win any tiebreaker. So that those situations (top-middle of the chart) where those teams splits and Cleveland wins either 1 or none will make the Yanx champs and Boston the WC (maybe an advantage for the "loser"?) Odds Report (assuming each game a 50/50 proposition): NYY & Boston: - In the playoffs in 6 of 9 outcomes - (68.75%) - Need to win a play-in game in 1 of 9 - (12.5%) - Need to win a double play-in game in 1 of 9 - (12.5%) - and are OUT in only 1 of 9 {get swept/Cleveland wins both} - (6.25%) Cleveland: - In the playoffs in 2 of 9 outcomes (12.5%) - Need to win a play-in game in 3 of 9 - including 1 where they play the NYY/BOS play-in winner (37.5%) - OUTTA HERE in 4 of 9 (50%) In the NL, Philly still faces long odds but they managed to shorten them up a bit: Houston wins in 6 of 9 outcomes (68.75%) Philly still clinches in only 1 - they take 2/Astros lose both (6.25%) And a play-in game is needed for 2 of the 9 - Phils splits/Astros lose both, or Philly takes 2/Astros split (25%)

Here's what happened there: it was a 3-2/2-out pitch and so both runners were off; Glavine from 2nd was running somewhat leisurely on the pitch and Reyes from 1st was sprinting like a madman and was within half-a-baseline of Tommy by the time the ball was hit. Acta then came way down the 3rd base line to wave Glavine around and I doubt it ever crossed his mind that Reyes might try it too and never appeared to look for him. Reyes, for his part, probably thought Acta's windmilling was for him and never broke stride. btw; the Astros last night lost a chance to clinch a WC tie when their PR-er was thrown out at the plate as the tying run w/2 out in the 9th on a hit that was only somewhat deeper than the one we're talking about here. Probably not a bad send (depending on who was on deck and such) but he was out by about 10 feet.

Edgy DC wrote: Returning to Piazza, though. There's also the possibility of a handshake commitment from Piazza to be offered arbitration and decline it, as a parting gifrt to the Mets, a la Bobby Jones. That's possible, although it wasn't just a "Gift" from Jones to the team. Since a team NOT offering arb to a player loses the rights to him at an earlier date the prearranged offer/decline scenario kept a Mets/Jones re-marriage possible for a longer period which was something Jones himself wanted as an option. In this case Mike may want to keep the Mets as a safety valve kind of thing if he finds the market isn't going to offer him the full-time C/DH job he wants (assuming that's what he wants). The only problem from his end would be that the FA-compensation that the offer/decline thing would trigger will, in effect, make him more expensive for other teams looking to sign him. I'm assuming he'll be a 'Type A' FA which means a 1st round pick to sign him (plus the supplemental). Jones, IIRC, was more like a 'B' or 'C' which meant only the supplemental pick to the Mets. Great for us since it that pick became David Wright but it was no skin off the signing team's nose. IOW, I doubt that'll happen.

AL scenarios above edited so as to include odds of occuring. Odds are based on each individual game being a 50/50 shot. Another way to look at that series is to just treat it as a [u:240300f8f5]4 Game series[/u:240300f8f5] which is clinched as soon as the Yanx win 2 or the Sox win 3 and where game 4 (Monday) is only played if necc. In a similar deal with the NL Wild Card: * Houston gets in via 13 of the 16 possible outcomes - (89.0%) * Philly gets directly in via only 1 (they sweep, Astros gets swept) - (1.6%) * and 2 of those 16 outcomes - Phils win 2 / Astros zero, or Phils win 3 / Astros 1 - will result in a Monday death-match - (9.4%) So, based on this method, there's a 25% chance that there'll be AL play- in baseball on Monday, plus a 14% chance that they'll need be both Monday & Tuesday to settle it all. Tack on the 9.4% chance of an NL tie and it's nearly a 50/50 proposition that there'll be at least one game of free Monday baseball and about a 4% chance that BOTH leagues will need it!!!!

OK, let's see how this looks; # of MFY wins this weekend on top, # of Cleveland wins on the left: NYY=0NYY=1NYY=2NYY=3 CLE=0NYYNYYNYYNYYBOSBOSBOSB v CCLE=1BOSNYYNYYNYYN v CBOSB v CCLECLE=2BOSN v BNYYNYYCLEWin v CCLECLECLE=3BOSN v BNYYNYYCLECLECLECLE Or, looked at another way, out of the 16 possible scenarios this weekend: NYY are in post-season in 11 of them (70.3% chance of occuring) need to win a play-in game in 2 (9.4%) need to win TWO play-in games in 1 (14.0%) and are OUTTA here in 2 (6.3%) Boston gets in via 7 of the outcomes (36.0%) Needs to win a play-in game in 3 (20.3%) Needs the double play-in route in 1 (14%) and is OUT in 5 (29.7%) Cleveland gets in via 8 of the 16 (40.7%) Needs a play-in game in 4 (including 1 where they wait for a NYY/Bos play-in) (34.3%) and is out via 4 outcomes (25.0%)

Except that to get a draft pick you'd need to offer him arbitration and to do that into lock yourself into a higher salary than he's going to be worth. You can only cut your own players 20% from one year to the next. With Mike it's either going to be a re-sign at some agreed upon reduced rate & role or a clean break. I can't see an arbitration/waiting process playing out. Minaya was on the radio last night talking about Piazza (among other things): 'We'll talk to him and his agent after the season in order to find out where everyone stands' (or something along those lines). I still think he could return and that under the correct circumstances I think it would be a good move. Mostly it's going to depend on what Mike himself thinks of his own abilities and how the market views him. I'm not sure anyone knows the answers to those questions just yet. Other Minaya stuff: - on Willie: Still learning on the job - but overall good focus, good communication, good w/media - Looper: will also talk to him and agent but will also look to the market for closing candidates - Matsui: "right now" he's still in their '06 plans (and really, what else can he say?) - Jacobs: Has impressed and worked his way into the discussion for a 1st base job but doesn't want to base too much on September alone. Likes his "swagger" and the fact that he's a homegrown guy they know. - Seo: Could be in rotation but makes no guarantees - Cameron/Diaz - Sure Mike can come back from injuries, thinks Diaz will benefit from the experience - Scouting Changes: Were done with the long-term in mind. Cited the Braves example of sustained excellence. - Peterson: Won't comment on rumors [of backstabbing, etc] but says there are always disagreements but disagreement aren't the same as "conflict"

Glavine - 5.9 Wright - 1.6 Piazza - 0.9 Jacobs - 1.2 Cario - 0.2 Reyes - 0.2

The question about whether you sign Piazza to another year or Glavine for another year beyond next one should be made on their merits and have nothing to do with hitting round numbers while wearing NYM uniforms.

Well Boston came back to win - on a 9th inning RBI walk-off single by Papi of course - which is a good thing or this much-ballyhooed weekend series was about to become really boring. Yanx also won of course, meaning that Boston essentially has to win 3 out of 4; 2 of 3 to get them into a tie and then they'll need to take the 1-game playoff game on Monday (at Yanqui stad btw). 3 straight will also do it obviously. I was wrong on the earlier post about the ChiSox. They HAVE won the division because they win the head-to-head tie-breaker w/the seriously, I just used a racist word when I really meant "Guardians" even if Cleveland sweeps this weekend's games. Houston loses and heads into the final weekend w/a 2 game lead over Philly. Houston hosts Cubs for 3 more, Philly at Washington for 3.

I'm not neccesarily sold on keeping Trax, BUT ... - don't just name 5 other starters and think that we're set. Teams never get by with 5 and rarely need as few as 6 or 7 for a season. You can ask my good friend Brian Cashman about that one. - and especially don't start counting on guys who haven't even smelled the major leagues yet. Petit (or Bannister or whoever) might be ready for next season or he/they might be turn out to be just about as ready as Heilman was for 2 seasons ago. Minor league prospects - and especially pitchers!!! - don't work on any schedule that can be reliably counted upon.

Cardinal fans are the best in baseball ... just ask them!

ChiSox just win their gay dame and have clinched a playoff spot even though not yet a division. Cleveland can still force a Central tie if they win tonight and then run the table against Chicago ... but even then, the fact that the Yanx & BoSox are playing each other assures that at least one (or both) of them will finish with a worse record than the theoretically tied Cleve/ChiW tandem meaning that the ChiSox are at least a WC at this point w/o having to go through any play-in games. That situation may be good for the Indians - and bad for the MFYSawx loser - since the ChiSox now have nothing to play for and may rest some regulars against Cleveland this weekend, giving the seriously, I just used a racist word when I really meant "Guardians" a good shot at taking 2 or 3 games and thus grabbing the WC. And I don't want to say that Boston is desperate but they just traded for Mike Stanton!! He won't be playoff eligible obviously but I guess they see him as a middle inning Giambi/Matsui antidote or something. Gee, that current lefty sidewinder Myers they already have can't do that? This all kinda reminds me of the time that the Yanx traded for Dave Kingman strictly to play in a 4-game series against Boston figuring that he'd find the Monster an inviting target.

Keep in mind that the $2.5mil also comes w/a bunch of incentives that could drive it much higher (not sure of the details, very complicated I'm sure). In other words, he may turn out to be good, or he may turn out to be cheap ... but it's [u:173735f534]unlikely that he'll be both[/u:173735f534]. And yeah, that 10/5 stuff makes the idea of re-upping and then trading a bit more complicated.

Not suprisingly, the odds are changing more rapidly now with each new day of results. [u:1e3b34018d]AL East[/u:1e3b34018d]: Yanx - Division = 64.55%, WC = 12.74%, Total = 77.29% BoSox - Division = 35.45%, WC = 17.48%, Total = 52.93% ChiSox - Division = 86.65%, WC = 12.60%, Total = 99.25% seriously, I just used a racist word when I really meant "Guardians" - Division = 13.49%, WC = 57.18%, Total = 70.53% Boston is playing so bad right now I have no faith in them whatsoever. Arroyo just plain sucked last night and their hitters left about a million guys on base. That's 3 straight [u:1e3b34018d]1 run losses[/u:1e3b34018d] for the Indians Baltimore just plain suxx. Even when they play well they still manage to suck. [u:1e3b34018d]NL - Wild Card[/u:1e3b34018d]: Astros = 96.85% Phillies = 3.15%

Yeah, supposedly it's something that's been bugging him since the end of last year but rest rather than cutting was recommended. Speculation will shirley follow about whether it was the cause of his off-year.

. (Avi wuz here)

Yeah, Jacobs wasn't considered much of a defensive catcher even before he hurt his shoulder in early '04. He then missed most of that season and spent most of this one at 1B & DH. I wouldn't count on him returning behind the dish on anything other than a limited-use basis.I'm not sure what to make of Keppinger. His BA has been good - both in '04 when we got him and this year before the injury - but he doesn't tack a whole lot of walks/OBP onto that avg, hits for almost no power, and isn't really considered a defensive standout either. I think Met fans like this guy - or at least like the idea of him - a lot more than the scouts & touts crowd does.

Q: Thom from Ann Arbor, MI asks:Does the fact that Philip Humber makes this list after a subpar year ending in surgery mean that there is a consensus that he can still be an impact starter? A: JJ Cooper: Consensus is a little strong, as you can find baseball people who think differently about almost everything, but yes, baseball people I talked to thought that Humber, post-surgery, still has a chance to be a solid starter. He showed plus stuff at times before being shut down, and with the success rate of pitchers returning from Tommy John, there is plenty of reason to think he'll regain his stuff after the surgery.Q: Mike from Winston Salem asks:I know Brett Harper was repeating the league at age 24, but did he finally show enough that he should be considered a legitimate first base prospect for the Mets? A: JJ Cooper: Harper's raw power compared favorably with about anybody in the league, and he did a good job of converting that into production with an approach that had him looking to punish bad pitches. But there are some concerns about his grip and rip approach, and his bat will have to earn him a major league job, as his baserunning and defense are both below average. Q: Mike from Chico, CA asks:Lastings Milledge questions: When will we see him in New York? What position will he play and where will he end up hitting in the lineup? Can you give us a good comp for him? A: JJ Cooper: When depends a lot on the Mets decisions at the big league level over the offseason and next season. As far as where he plays, he projects as a big league CF, but with Beltran in CF, he could handle a corner spot. He has enough arm to handle RF. Where he hits? Right now he seems to be more of a No. 5-6 hitter than a leadoff hitter to me, but more than anyone else in the league, Milledge seemed to be a guy who even the projections aren't really solid yet. He could be a speed and batting average guy, as he has the bat speed and the legs to do that, but some observers believed he could also bulk up to be a middle of the order power hitter if he wanted to do that. Sorry, like John Manuel and Jim Callis, I try to avoid giving comps unless a scout gives them to me.Q: DG Siegel from Paris, France asks:After their time in the Sally league in 2004, the Mets were very high on Jamar Hill and Shawn Bowman, yet both players seems to have fallen back this year. Is there any hope for either? A: JJ Cooper: Bowman came out of the 2005 season looking better than Hill. In Bowman's case, he still showed great defense and solid power, although he has to start showing better ability to make contact. Q: Kevin from Las Vegas asks:How do you justify Humber. From what I've heard the guy is 89-92, straight fastball, average curve. He definitely didn't put up the numbers. What gives? A: JJ Cooper: The reports we have had Humber at 91-94 mph with a plus curve, although his velo did seem to drop off at times before he was shut down (which seems to be because of the bone chips). He was a high No. 1 pick in 2004 for a reason. When healthy, he has shown elite stuff.And maybe the most fun in these chats is listening to MFY fans complaining about BA's "anti-Yankee Bias". It's been an ongoing theme in each of the chats I've read so far, ... like:Q: Bryan from Setauket, NY asks:Yankee fans wouldnt have to question BA's bias if it didn't exist. Once Tyler [Clippard, NYY pitcher] puts up the same numbers next year all of a sudden you'll mention his increased velocity and magically he'll be on "BA's radar again" A: JJ Cooper: In some weird way I'm enjoying this. Clippard's lack of a ranking is a sign that we have it out for Yankees fans, again, I'll ask the question, why is that the case any more than we have it out for Brewers fans by leaving Carlos Villanueva off, or that we're snubbing Cardinals fans by leaving Chris Lambert off. It's a top 20 list, which by its very nature means that major league prospects will be left off of the list. But as usual, accusations of bias most interestingly come from people who are admittedly biased themselves (hence no Yankees fans pleading for Lambert to make the list). No one has ever said that Clippard isn't on our radar, and you haven't seen one comment where i said that Clippard couldn't be a major leaguer. But I can promise you this, if you talk to scouts or GMs, none of them would trade Humber for Clippard right now, and I don't think that any rational Yankees fan would disagree with that.Q: Adam from Florida asks:Why was Andy Wilson left off of the list. He lead the league in homeruns, played a new position this year, and was promoted to AAA. Not to mention the fact that he is now in the Arizona Fall League representing the Mets. Could this be due to the fact that he was a Free Agent signee? A: JJ Cooper: Wilson came a little bit out of nowhere to actually get some consideration thanks to a monster year. He has some athletic ability and plus power, but as a 24-year-old in high Class A who is still trying to find a position, he had too many question marks to crack the top 20. Observers did like his approach at the plate, as he hit the ball to all fields in addition to showing power.

Baseball America's [u:85e1109ddc]Florida State League[/u:85e1109ddc] top-20 is out, featuring Lastings Milledge at #3, and (perhaps a sympathy pick) Philip Humber at #20JJ Cooper - who's the guy who has covered the Mets for BA the last few years - will be hosting an on-line Q&A for FSL inquiries at 2 PM.

AL: Angels won late last night and clinched the West, so now it's just a question of how 4 will fit into 3. BP's 'Playoff Odds' report has it as: Boston: Division = 55.71%, WC = 10.45%, Total = 66.16% Yanquis: Division = 44.29%, WC = 11.66%, Total = 55.95% ChiSox: Division = 67.15%, WC = 28.19%, Total = 95.34% seriously, I just used a racist word when I really meant "Guardians": Division = 33.85, WC = 49.70%, Total = 82.55% btw, for all the gloating about how the Wild Card "saved" baseball and made this season in particular, wouldn't it be even more fun if BOTH divisions were in a win or go home mode and not have the WC to fall back on? And then imagine if you go back to the old 2-division set-up and Cleveland/Boston/NYY are locked in a 3-way tie for one crown ... oh Baby! NL: It ain't over yet ... but just about. Astros WC = 94.29% Phils WC = 5.71% We can't kill the Phintings tonight, but we can put them in the position of getting last rites. In the West, Ramon Hernandez's Grand Slam + 7 RBIs (hmmmm?) just about put an end to things out there too: Padres Division = 98.92% Giants Division = 1.06% D'Backs Division = 0.0145% ... Now THAT would be funny! Next Padre win ends things.