Frayed Knot

Edgy DC wrote: Do I correctly assume that his DL time delayed Trax's 10-and-five eligibility? Nope. DL time = Service time, putting Trax officially in the 10 & 5 club now. Speaking of DL time equaling service time, that little fact got me to wondering whether Reyes is arb-eligible yet. At this point he's got 2 yrs + 111 days of ML time (or approx 2.62 years as the ML season is divided into 180 days). All 3 yr players are eligible, plus 1/6 of those with the most time between 2 & 3 years. Since I haven't heard that he is I assume he falls short although it's probably pretty close. It would all depend on how many "super-2" players there are and whether enough of them are over the 2 + 111 mark.

The aforementioned Will Carroll talks about Lawton http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4584

In a fair fight among NL LFers only Cliff might have a decent chance at a GG - but of course that's not how they do things. His main competion would probably be Jason Bay & Colorado's Matt Holliday but most of the other regulars are pretty much Clysedales: Dunn, C. Lee, Klesko, Burrell; playing out of position: Miguel Cabrera; or part-timers. I guess that's why they treat the best fielding LFer as akin to being the tallest midget in the circus and pick multiple CFers instead.

P - Greg Maddux, Chi ... 15th one for him. He's real good although Hampton should have won it one of these years (just not this one) C - Mike Matheny, SF ... OK 1B - Derrick Lee, Chi ... No problem here 2B - Luis Castillo, Fla ... he was hurt and immobile for much of the later season SS - Omar Vizquel, SF ... whenever they can't figure out who to give it to they fall back on the old standard. Geez! how 'bout Jack Wilson guys? 3B - Mike Lowell, Fla ... he was horrid when we saw him late in the year, waiving at anything hit more than 2 feet from him. OF (with the usual complaints that they don't break them out by position) - Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones, Bobby Abreu. Jones (a bit) and Edmonds (more than a bit) aren't what they were tho are probably still deserving. Abreu can be good but is too lackadasical and takes too many plays off. The problem with these things is that they're based too much on 'rep' and can be affected by how the player's offensive season went (although that doesn't explain Lowell). The irony is that for all the complaining about how the fans (AS game) and writers (other awards) botch their votes, this vote - done by managers and coaches - is usually the worst of the lot.

]And do we know what the particular weaknesses in Jacobs' game are? I read a piece which described him as having a '40' (on the 20 - 80 scale) arm. That's below average though not ridiculously so. I'm not sure about the less quantifiable parts of his defensive game; blocking, calling, etc. Problem is that all that was before his shoulder surgery and before he spent nearly 2 years w/o strapping on the gear. I just don't get the opinion that the team sees him as a future catcher - at least not in anything more than an occasional basis.

]A.) Most observers, including myself, were shocked when the Dodgers gace Drew that contract. The guy had been hurt almost every year of his career.No doubt that the Drew signing was risky, but it's not like THIS injury was foretold, nor did his previous hurts make this one more likely. If I told you not to drive the car because the tires are bald it's not like I retain the right to say 'I told ya so' when you get plowed into by a semi while sitting at a light. The pre-existing problem didn't cause wreck nor even make YOU more likely than the guy next to you to be the car on the business end of that truck grill.]B.) I've been guilty of this kind of bitterness in my columns from time to time, so it's hard to kill the guy. Guys like DePo bring it out of you. I'd think that sticking to knocking guys for what they actually do would be better than deciding that picking on the nerds is as fun and easy now as it was during high school ... but that's just me.

Thomas was just barely [u:194c0e95cc]ever!![/u:194c0e95cc] anything more than a DH, and he isn't likely to become more of a fielder now as leg/foot/age issues throw numerous wrenches into his considerably large works.

]There is indisputable evidence that Mr. DePodesta richly deserved his fate with that five-year, $55 million gift to the notoriously brittle J.D. Drew being perhaps the most egregious of his many blunders.Y'know, I know it's real popular to say that you "knew" that JD Drew was an injury waiting to happen and that it becomes real easy to crow when the facts seem to fit the predetermined story and all. Except that Drew's problem coming into the season was with a knee and he wound up missing the back half of the season with a broken wrist as the result of being hit with a pitch. There's nothing predetermined about that and the 'I-told-ya-so' crowd needs to pipe down here.]He was a pompous fellow with an Ivy League degree who thought his computer could overcome his notable lack of baseball knowledge and he turned out to be a scandalous disaster for the Dodgers.That sentence is beyond obnoxious.

Nope, Pat Gillick goes to Philly where conventional wisdom had Gerry Hunsicker as the front runner. There are rumors about Epstein talking to the Dodgers but those are unconfirmed.

Also consider that there are twice as many starting corner OFers as there are catchers (and OFers in general over catchers at about a 5/2 ratio) so that backstops are still the most likely types to jump on the managerial track. Another thing that helps Girardi's case (and makes this more than a over-simplified case of black vs white) is that he's more educated than most of his peers. Being an engineering major at Northwestern doesn't tend to hurt your resume in too many jobs - even in baseball.

Shyeet, when you're starting with material like that all you have to do is come up with the idea and the damn thing writes itself.

So, in honor of Theo's grandfather's and grand-uncle's most famous screenplay, maybe we can recreate the breakup talks between Lucchino and Epstein: - LL: "Shall we play it again Theo?" - TE: How 'bout for 20,000 Francs a year?" - LL: Better make it 10,000, I'm just a poor corrupt baseball official" - TE: I'm shocked, SHOCKED to discover that there's low-balling going on in here" - LL: "Of all the sports franchises in all the world, you had to walk into mine" - TE: "I'm afraid it would take a miracle to get past the Yankees next year and steinbrenner has outlawed miracles" - LL: "Look, it doesn't take much to understand that the problems of two little people doesn't amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world" -TE: "I stick my neck out for nobody" - LL: "Then where I'm going, you can't follow. What I need to do you can't be part of. Some day you'll understand that, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of your life" - TE: We'll always have St. Louis" - LL (as Theo walks out the door): "Here's looking at the WS trophy kid" - TE (turns back one last time): "Lucchini, I think this is the end of a beautiful friendship" - LL (picking up the phone to owner John Henry): "We need a new General Manager ... round up the usual suspects"

I don't buy the 'NY/not NY' dichotomy either, just pointing out that if that is the worry of some peeps than it's already been answered. I think the only thing he needs to do to earn a role here is prove that he's healthy and ready to go - keeping in mind that if someone else offers him 'closer money' then you let him walk.

Prove himself how -- by showing that he's able to pitch effectively in NY? ... he's already done that IMO by what he did in '04. The question I suppose is how much they believe his poor pitching in '05 was on account of the injury he just "got fixed" or how much was something else. As it is, Minaya has said that he's going to keep in contract w/Loopy's agent toward a possible deal for next year. What they did by dumping the option was to show that they wanted no part of was bringing Loop back for the money ($5-sumtin mil or so) that the option would have locked in.

ScarletKnight41 wrote: And this is in the NBF because? Two words: Vod Ka

]Hopefully this [declining Looper's option] is a sign that Ryan/Wagner is on the way. I don't think one has anything to do with the other. That they've decided to replace Looper as closer isn't a sign that it'll be a top-dollar one. ]The only thing with Trachsel, since he now has veto power over trades, is that the Mets should make sure they know where he would and wouldn't go if a trade came up. There's no way Trax is going to let them know that kind of stuff in advance. When you have guys with no-trade protection you just have to take your chances and deal with it if/when trade options come up.

]There is a lot of time to smooth the rough edges before he plays his first major league game, which he hopes will be in Shea Stadium. "All the stuff that I've been through - that's why I think I can handle playing in New York," Milledge said. "That's why I feel I He's gotta learn to finish his sentences too. P.S. About leftfield; remember that in the AFL you're "sharing" the team with several other orgs. It's possible that some other - maybe more experienced - players have dibs on RF and/or CF. It's been mentioned in the past that he has the arm to handle RF if necc.

This is not an argument against adding offense, merely that part of what gets teams in trouble at times is when they go overboard in thinking that one player can make a bigger difference than it's reasonable to expect. Generally, it'll take a top shelf player to mean a 10-win difference over the course of an entire season. My "7 game" remark was meant to show the minimum diff between us and a likely WC or NL East title and it's unlikely that Manny could have provided that over a short span. Remember, the team who had him didn't exactly streak down the stretch either.

]I think if we had traded for Manny right before Cammy's injury then we probably make the playoffs. Even assuming that no big current parts were sent to get him (iow, just Cammy and/or minor leaguers) would less half a season of Manny have been enough to make up 7 games in the standings? Doubtful.

]that you have to add to the equation that Sheffield will demand a contract renegotiation in order to come over and (more importantly) not be a colossal pain in the ass. Sheffield has no power - except I guess by being a colossal pain in the ass - to demand a renegotiation. He has no no-trade protections currently and would have to play out the final year of his deal for the team that trades for him or not play (or get paid) at all. ]It has been said that Glaus can play first base, so if we acquire him (or Konerko), Jacobs can stay behind the plate ... Getting Glaus (or whoever) for 1st base doesn't mean that Jacobs is suddenly going to morph back into a catcher. If they thought he'd be any good back there he'd be donning the tools regardless of who was playing 1st. That bat with an even decent defensive resume as a catcher would be like holding a winning lottery ticket. As it is, he was a below-avg arm backstop prior to his shoulder surgery and missed season and it's now been 2 full years since he's caught more than occasionally. When and if he proves he can catch at at least a decent level ... great. But until then you don't shoe-horn a guy into catching simply because there's nowhere else to put him. More like the other way around.

Dodgers have called a 5PM news conference amid rumors that 'Moneyball' baby Paul DePodesta is out as GM.

I'd be surprised if Woodward was inked to a 2-year deal. What would have been the point in that? What is quite possible is that he's not a FA because he doesn't have his full 6 years in yet. He's played in pieces of 7 seasons but that might not add up to 6 full. *(opps - cross-posted with smg58) Trachsel's option is probably for a $2.5 minimum but could be as much as $7+ with incentives and stuff. I heard last night that he was among the early group filing for FA-gency.

The only hit I remember Williams taking in the book was when he (inexplicably in Beane's mind) drafted (reliever) Royce Ring ahead of (starter) Joe Blanton. And I don't bring this topic up to bash Williams. Now is certainly not the time to be doing this as it's obvious that Williams had himself a helluva year. It's just that the media in general is in love with "small ball" and seem to go out of their way to "prove" it's the right choice, often by selectively picking only those stats which back their point while ignoring others (like neglecting to mention that the 'small ball' Sox were 4th in AL HRs). In other words, it's the classic case of choosing the conclusion first and then building a story around that. And in this case, 'The Sporting News' didn't even do a very good job of that.

On the semi-related topic of 'Moneyball' bashing, the Sporting News chips in this week with a headline that reads; 'Who are the suckers now? White Sox & Astros prove teams don't need Moneyball or power to be successful' (umm, who ever said that you did?) ... and then go on to write an article which claims a lot, backs up little, uses individual examples as a substitute for proof, and continues to mis-state what the book was all about. ... [in 'Moneyball'] "legions of folks piled up evidence that defence, steals and bunts are for suckers" No. They. Didn't. [small ball is] "the way baseball should be" Oh really? What stone tablet did that come down on? They then go on to offer a bunch of stats which are often in direct contradiction to their point. I mean I wonder if it occured to them that pointing out that the two WS teams were; - each 3rd in their respective leagues in SBs; - 1st + 2nd in caught stealing; - 1st & 4th in Sac hits; - 12th and T12th in OBA; had anything to do with the fact that they were 9th & 11th in runs scored, or even that being below average in runs scored is a bad thing? Like maybe if the two teams weren't getting runners erased at a 30% clip whenever they set them in motion that those runs scored ranks wouldn't be as low. And just maybe the teams each being 2nd in team ERA had something to do with the winning thing?

I just want to see the argument that breaks out involving Bobby, Ozzie, ump Joe West and his most cantankerous Japanese counterpart. That four-way dust-up would involve some serious histrionics, cursing in at least 3 different recognized languages and several broken ones, plus a whole lotta spit flying back and forth would alone be worth the price of admission.