The More Brett Baty Changes, the More Things Stay the Same

Maybe the end of Brett Baty’s 2026 season left some off with a different sentiment the one he inspired among fans for most of the year. In a way, that is what tends to happen when a player finishes strong and leaves us with a positive final impression. But at the end of the day, Baty’s streak of producing a 1.088 OPS over a 10-game stretch between August 16 and September 25 was not enough to change the outcome of a season filled with inconsistencies.

That is why I have a feeling similar to the one I had last season, especially when looking at Baty’s final line before getting into the factors that caused his regressions. In many ways, he was the same hitter.

2025 season: .254/.313/.435, 18 HR, 50 RBIs, 53 R, .304 BABIP, 109 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR in 432 PAs.

2026 season: .236/.309/.371, 11 HR, 56 RBIs, 53 R, .304 BABIP, 91 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR in 473 PAs.

Those lines are remarkably similar, for better and worse. The same runs scored, the same BABIP, and a similar ability to maintain his plate discipline, combined with fewer home runs but more RBIs. The drop-off in wRC+ and fWAR was steeper than you'd think, but he was still fundamentally the same hitter.

However, there were two aspects that had the biggest impact on Baty’s season: his inability hit left-handed pitchers, as well as the inconsistency caused by his drops in bat speed. As for the first point, it's not that we should have expected progress in his power against lefties. He has never managed to develop it and is heading into his sixth season in the majors. But, in the hypothetical case that this becomes his next goal, he would first have to improve his contact.

I don’t think this will surprise you, but Baty hit all 11 of his home runs in 2026 against right-handed pitchers; against lefties, he finished with a .225 slugging percentage, just a .050 ISO, and only three RBIs in 91 plate appearances. His career OPS against lefties is .534 in 317 plate appearances. Even so, the Mets continued with their philosophy of keeping Baty in certain matchups and situations against left-handed pitchers, although they could have reduced his playing time even further, given his absolutely nonexistent track record of production in those matchups.

It is understandable that going up to bat and handling at-bats against any pitcher is Baty’s job, and it is clear that he got much of that playing time because New York’s offense was a failure amid injuries and inconsistencies. Either way, this has been just another chapter in Baty’s career and in the Mets’ inability to make their offense work.

That said, let’s focus on one of the aspects that ended up generating greater expectations for Baty’s swing, especially during the second half of the season: his bat speed. As he swung faster, his numbers underwent a considerable change in the second half of the season.

There you can see all the major changes, but pay attention to two key details. When Baty’s bat speed exceeded 70 mph, his power seemed to unlock: he hit all his home runs, became less vulnerable with two strikes, reduced his whiff rate by nearly 20%, and recorded all his barrels.

When Baty stayed below 70 mph in bat speed, his .142 xSLG was the worst on the team all year. While most hitters tend to produce better contact with slower swings (bat "control" and bat "speed" are often considered a trade-off), Baty doesn't seem to have the same issue. Perhaps it's a confidence thing, but when he's gripping and ripping it, better results tend to follow.

We'll see how the Mets react to this data with their offseason plan for Baty, but his role as a platoon threat on this roster is crystal clear for now.

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