Tarik Skubal Would Push Mets' Rotation Beyond Its Own Limits

New York Mets starting pitchers finished the 2026 campaign ranked 23rd among the 30 MLB teams in ERA, with a 4.47 mark. It was a rough year in Queens overall, and the rotation just couldn't catch a break. Things, however, have the potential to be much, much different in 2027.

According to MLB insider Jon Heyman, the Mets are the favorites to sign star left-hander and two-time AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. The Los Angeles Dodgers remain very much in the race, as do other contenders, but the Mets are considered the frontrunners at this juncture.

We don’t need to tell you how much better the Mets’ staff would be with Skubal, a guy who boasts a 3.02 career ERA and a 2.47 mark since the 2023 campaign, when he took the leap from solid young starter to top-three arm in baseball. As a major leaguer, Skubal has a whopping 1,075 strikeouts in 925.1 innings.

Could The Mets Field A Top-Five Rotation In 2027?

As if Skubal wasn’t enough, the Mets are said to be working hard to bring in more rotation reinforcements. Unless they want the back-end guys to be Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea, such hypothetical acquisitions are very much needed.

If the Mets are able to secure Skubal and another mid-rotation arm, this unit has some serious top-five potential. Skubal alone, however, can make it a top-ten group.

Right now, the 2027 Mets’ rotation looks something like this (2026 ERA in parentheses):

Nolan McLean (3.16)

Christian Scott (3.85)

Zac Thornton (3.42)

Kodai Senga (7.34)

Sean Manaea (4.78)

McLean is one of the best up-and-coming stars in the National League, but he would obviously be bumped to No. 2 in the rotation if Skubal lands in Queens. Few teams would have a better second starter, though.

Scott left an excellent impression as a member of the Mets’ rotation this year, and is a fine number three or four. Ideally, however, New York would add another name to slot right in front of him and make Scott the fourth guy on the staff (Clay Holmes? Michael King?).

Senga did a much better job as a reliever late in the year than he did as a starter, a role that he simply doesn’t appear ready to fill anymore. He did experience a few late-season hiccups even as a member of the bullpen, so counting on him to make starts would be a mistake at this point.

Manaea, on the other hand, could be a serviceable number five or six, alternating between the rotation and the bullpen depending on health and other factors. He would be an expensive one, no doubt about it, but he should have value to the team if the organization can’t trade him.

After these names, the Mets also have Jonah Tong, Tylor Megill coming back from 2025 Tommy John surgery, Robert Stock, and youngsters Jack Wenninger and Jonathan Santucci as starting pitching options.

Ideally, this would be the Mets’ starting pitching depth chart heading into the 2027 season:

1. Tarik Skubal
2. Nolan McLean
3. Offseason acquisition
4. Christian Scott
5. Zac Thornton
6. Sean Manaea
7. Jonah Tong
8. Tylor Megill
9. Robert Stock
10. Jack Wenninger
11. Jonathan Santucci

It will all depend on the quality of that potential non-Skubal acquisition for the middle of the staff, but the groundwork is there for a top-ten unit, and potentially top-five, if things break right.

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